EDIT: VGC has the PSP's first week at 408k, so my prediction is obviously a low end one. I want the thing to fail, after all.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.
Biased reviews are a pleasure to read. Just my opinion, of course.
By first week, I mean the vgchartz week ending 25th febuary. I'll add that to the OP. Oh, and if you say 100k-200k, i will put your prediction as 150k
1st week: 450k
or 1st week (weird 3G only thing): 100k, then 2nd week: 380k
I think it will roughly start similar to the PSP (which managed 400k apparently), the PSP was an unknown (a non-Nintendo handheld?) but was hyped.... the Vita has the advantage of following the PSP, so normally I would have put the launch higher, but my limited knowledge of people's opinions of it seems to indicate it isn't that desirable.
Between 400k and 500k. Customers in the US don't do their research when buying things (heck they dont even look a picture menu when ordering); so they don't give a hoot about the negative press it has been getting on the internet. It will fall from there but experience stable substandard sales after that until a price cut.