EDIT: VGC has the PSP's first week at 408k, so my prediction is obviously a low end one. I want the thing to fail, after all.
By first week, I mean the vgchartz week ending 25th febuary. I'll add that to the OP. Oh, and if you say 100k-200k, i will put your prediction as 150k
Between 400k and 500k. Customers in the US don't do their research when buying things (heck they dont even look a picture menu when ordering); so they don't give a hoot about the negative press it has been getting on the internet. It will fall from there but experience stable substandard sales after that until a price cut.