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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official Dec 2009 NPD Thread (Data for 5 weeks ending Jan 2 in 5 hrs)

dolemit3 on 14 January 2010

Lol at the fanboy fights



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Kasz216 on 14 January 2010
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Noobie said:
Why everyone is trying to say XBOX and PS3 is a statistical tie.??? i mean 50k is not that much meager either.. its 1.5 million dollar sales for PS3. :$ and we can also say maybe PS3 had 100k lead and NPD is showing it less.. it should be taken as +/-25k for each console instead of only +25k for XBOX and -25k for PS3 to make it a tie. :$..

i think XBOX has even won by 900 units.. it was something like 287.1k and 288k.. So it was a win for XBOX so this is a win for PS3

No... that would also be a statistical tie.  They would both be statistical ties.

Winning is winning.

Or is there a rule now on how many sales it takes for it to automatically be a "statistical tie"?

Yes.  There is a rule on that.

It's called the margin of error.

It's a statistical rule... for statistics.  Which these numbers are.

It's universal...

For it to not automatically be a statistical tie the two numbers have to be far enough apart from each other to not be within each others "margins of error."

We don't know the NPD margin of error though...

Or do we?

Last i've heard it's about 5% either way.

Meaning the PS3 could be as low as the 360 number...

and the 360 could be as high as the PS3 number... or anywhere between.

In addition the Ps3 number could be much higher or the 360 version much lower.

In either case it's a stiatistcal tie, because there is a significant overlap in what the "real" number could be.

 

 



tombi123 on 14 January 2010
darthdevidem01 said:
Kasz216 said:

It didn't according to the numbers.

The numbers are aproximations.  Numbers that are aproximations or ~ are said to fall within the margin of error with the ~ as an approximate middleground.

Any two ~ that overlap with the margin of error are considered equal.

 

~1.36 = ~1.31

you can keep going on about statistics, I have made my position clear to you already.

And your position is wrong... why are you choosing to be ignorant? 

The only defence I have for you is that we don't know NPDs percentage error. Although they are likely to be bigger than the roughly 3.7% needed for the PS3 to have outsold the 360 (5-10% I would say).



leo-j on 14 January 2010

Well if anything comes out of this is that:

1. Wii is above 66M world wide
2. PS3 is above 32M world wide
3. The ps3/360 gap is now barely 5M



 

mM
Carl on 14 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Noobie said:
Why everyone is trying to say XBOX and PS3 is a statistical tie.??? i mean 50k is not that much meager either.. its 1.5 million dollar sales for PS3. :$ and we can also say maybe PS3 had 100k lead and NPD is showing it less.. it should be taken as +/-25k for each console instead of only +25k for XBOX and -25k for PS3 to make it a tie. :$..

i think XBOX has even won by 900 units.. it was something like 287.1k and 288k.. So it was a win for XBOX so this is a win for PS3

No... that would also be a statistical tie.  They would both be statistical ties.

Winning is winning.

Or is there a rule now on how many sales it takes for it to automatically be a "statistical tie"?

Yes.  There is a rule on that.

It's called the margin of error.

It's a statistical rule... for statistics.  Which these numbers are.

It's universal...

For it to not automatically be a statistical tie the two numbers have to be far enough apart from each other to not be within each others "margins of error."

We don't know the NPD margin of error though...

Or do we?

Last i've heard it's about 5% either way.

Meaning the PS3 could be as low as the 360 number...

and the 360 could be as high as the PS3 number... or anywhere between.

In addition the Ps3 number could be much higher or the 360 version much lower.

In either case it's a stiatistcal tie, because there is a significant 50% overlap in what the "real" number could be.

So it's just speculation then...?

If there isn't a solid margin of error that we know of, then you can't determine if it's a statistical tie or not.

Brett knows and admits VGC have a +/- 10% margin of error... Maybe NPD have also stated there own. I might go check.

But until we know the MoE, we can't rightfully say if it is a "statistical tie". Until then, i say... PS3 > 360.



                            

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Huya on 14 January 2010

Drama fags



Euphoria14 on 14 January 2010

I'm annoying



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BoneyBoy on 14 January 2010

What is with the statistical tie BS???

The ps3 won fair and square this month.

Stop trying to say it was a tie when it clearly wasn't

PS3 earned 2nd place



Kasz216 on 14 January 2010
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Carl2291 said:
Kasz216 said:
Noobie said:
Why everyone is trying to say XBOX and PS3 is a statistical tie.??? i mean 50k is not that much meager either.. its 1.5 million dollar sales for PS3. :$ and we can also say maybe PS3 had 100k lead and NPD is showing it less.. it should be taken as +/-25k for each console instead of only +25k for XBOX and -25k for PS3 to make it a tie. :$..

i think XBOX has even won by 900 units.. it was something like 287.1k and 288k.. So it was a win for XBOX so this is a win for PS3

No... that would also be a statistical tie.  They would both be statistical ties.

Winning is winning.

Or is there a rule now on how many sales it takes for it to automatically be a "statistical tie"?

Yes.  There is a rule on that.

It's called the margin of error.

It's a statistical rule... for statistics.  Which these numbers are.

It's universal...

For it to not automatically be a statistical tie the two numbers have to be far enough apart from each other to not be within each others "margins of error."

We don't know the NPD margin of error though...

Or do we?

Last i've heard it's about 5% either way.

Meaning the PS3 could be as low as the 360 number...

and the 360 could be as high as the PS3 number... or anywhere between.

In addition the Ps3 number could be much higher or the 360 version much lower.

In either case it's a stiatistcal tie, because there is a significant 50% overlap in what the "real" number could be.

So it's just speculation then...?

If there isn't a solid margin of error that we know of, then you can't determine if it's a statistical tie or not.

Brett knows and admits VGC have a +/- 10% margin of error... Maybe NPD have also stated there own. I might go check.

But until we know the MoE, we can't rightfully say if it is a "statistical tie". Until then, i say... PS3 > 360.

No.  It's not speculation.  That was the last time i heard someone actually say what there margin of error is on this site.



darthdevidem01 on 14 January 2010
Kasz216 said:
darthdevidem01 said:

you can keep going on about statistics, I have made my position clear to you already.

Which is apparently that you want to be willfully ignorant because it means something good for Sony.

Which as a position isn't the strongest one to have.

Once again chill out & don't give yourself too much stress over this. I will continue to claim PS3 won December against 360, you can say it was a "statistical tie" for all of eternity if you wish.



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