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Forums - Sales Discussion - So we see that this site undertracks the XBOX 360- why?

binary solo said:
algorith said:
Blacksaber said:
I love shipping compared to sales!

Didn't they also track the 3.88 (really 3.8)  million shipped by Sony and included it. That means they are tracking shipped, not sales to the final consumer..

Nope. They reported the 3.8 million shipped in a news article, it didn't get incoroporated into the Sony LTD total sales data on this site. VGC estimates global sales to consumers, that's all.

Edit: Up thread it's said the 3.8 million is sold to consumers. I don't know which is right now. I pretty much always assume "sales" reported by the console makers is always shipped to retail.

 Yes it did, it is posted by VGcharts estimates and you can see the chart here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=PS3®[]=Total&start=40146&end=40174 

Here's the new that vgchartz posted with clearly states their estimate is about the same amount as the Sony numbers:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6443 

Vgchartz tracks shipped systems, which is fine because shipped means the manufacturers have sold them to retailers. But yet the MS numbers have not yet been updated. 

 



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GreyianStorm said:
algorith said:


@ noname2200

 That's not possible since it's Sony's provided figure. Sony has no way to track sales to consumers. So those were shipped numbers or sales to retailers. I thought they would fix MS numbers but it's been 2 days... 

Shipped to retailers and sold to end consumer figures are going to be very similar at this stage. Retailers are not going to buying more units per month/quarter etc than they are selling. As such, Sony would be able to estimate the number of PS3's sold during a week/month/quarter/year to end consumers, even if they can't get it right to the unit.

Also, Sony would be able to judge sales from retailers based on follow-up orders. If retailers buy a batch of 5 million after their first batch, Sony can be sure the PS3 sold quite well. If they ordered 100,000 units, obviously stock (ie the 3.8 million shipment that you are talking about, that may not have even been shipping related) did not sell at all well.

 The same argument could be said about the 360 however. Sony releases number of units shipped or sold to retailers regardless of whether this number is close or not the sales to the end consumer. 



Algorith, VGC tracks retail sales.

Sony's shipment numbers and VGC's sales figures just happen to be similar. Don't take as a means to suggest VGC tracks shipments.

Tracking shipments doesn't take a whole website to do that anyway as can be seen by thousands of threads across the Internet tracking quarterly shipment numbers from all 3 console manufacturers.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

needed a good laugh before I went to sleep!



algorith said:
binary solo said:
algorith said:
Blacksaber said:
I love shipping compared to sales!

Didn't they also track the 3.88 (really 3.8)  million shipped by Sony and included it. That means they are tracking shipped, not sales to the final consumer..

Nope. They reported the 3.8 million shipped in a news article, it didn't get incoroporated into the Sony LTD total sales data on this site. VGC estimates global sales to consumers, that's all.

Edit: Up thread it's said the 3.8 million is sold to consumers. I don't know which is right now. I pretty much always assume "sales" reported by the console makers is always shipped to retail.

 Yes it did, it is posted by VGcharts estimates and you can see the chart here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwtable.php?cons[]=PS3®[]=Total&start=40146&end=40174 

Here's the new that vgchartz posted with clearly states their estimate is about the same amount as the Sony numbers:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=6443 

Vgchartz tracks shipped systems, which is fine because shipped means the manufacturers have sold them to retailers. But yet the MS numbers have not yet been updated. 

 

No, VGChartz does not track shipped systems. It tracks sold to consumer systems. For the period mentioned, the 2 figures just happened to be very close, which is hardly suprising. The PS3 was widely out of stock, meaning the whole shipment had been sold. Hence, VGChartz sold to consumer and Sony's shipment figures are similar.



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Viper1 said:
Algorith, VGC tracks retail sales.

Sony's shipment numbers and VGC's sales figures just happen to be similar. Don't take as a means to suggest VGC tracks shipments.

Tracking shipments doesn't take a whole website to do that anyway as can be seen by thousands of threads across the Internet tracking quarterly shipment numbers from all 3 console manufacturers.

 So VGchartz tracked 80,000 units more than Sony shipped for sales to end consumers... Well I suppose it's ok if it is sales to end consumers, then it's simply inaccurate overall by an unknown amount. 



algorith said:
binary solo said:
If the true number of 360s sold to consumers is 38.17 million (36.77 + the so called missing 1.4 million) then VGC is off on its estimate of global Xbox 360 sales by a Mammoth 3.8%.

Imagine that after estimating Xbox 360 sales for 4 years VGC has only managed to achieve 96.2% accuracy. What utterly outrageous incompetence that VGC should claim any sort of credibility at estimating world sales of gaming consoles if it barely manages to be 96% accurate. They should shut this site down for being such big fraudsters leading us on with made up numbers they just pull out of their arses. I demand a refund!!

And what's worse? They are showing their obvious hatred for the Xbox 360. The whole internet is against Xbox, and that includes VGC. You should all be ashamed of yourselves, picking on the greatest console ever made like that. Just wait until Natal comes, it'll show you all! How it must gall the Sony loving VGC crew that they have to show the 360 in second place.

Life as we know it is now over.

 I don't think the problem is the +/-4% deviation but rather the inability to correct the numbers once the accurate information has been provided. At that pace, it adds up and deviates even further making the numbers down right unusable even for estimates. 

You are referring to VGchartz not correcting it's numbers?  It does, regularly, in contrast to NPD which to my knowledge just builds any corrections into the next dataset rather than correcting the original.

You seem to want Vgchartz to correct it's data based on MS's PR claim of 39 million, despite the fact that Vgchartz hasn't finalised it's data for the end of the year and the impossibility of establishing from MS's data what proportion of those 39 millions systems have actually been sold to consumers. 

 



numonex said:
Why are people questioning the reliability of VGChartz sales numbers? AFAIK VGChartz numbers are the real deal. VGChartz sales numbers are 100% accurate retail sales numbers. Never question the reliability of the site's numbers.

In light of the number of times that this site's numbers have been way off, even to the point of exceeding the amount shipped to retailers, I can not agree with this at all.

algorith said:

 Yes. Sony has referred industry analysts when asked for sales to end consumer to NPD and such. And there are retailers that will not disclose such information like Wal-mart. Sony keeps track of the units they sale = units sold to retailers. Anything else would be a guess, and publicly traded companies cannot release guesses to the media in an official manner due to investor litigation. 

 This is not true.

Some companies are able to track in real time what is sold to customers via tracking software. Siras is the one that I'm most familiar with. It's what Nintendo uses. This lets them immediately know what product sold at what time from which retailer.

You're mistaking such software with data trackers like NPD, who do have to poll retailers and calculate their figures accordingly. That's not the only way to do it, though.

As to why the companies routinely refer to NPD et. al. in most (not all!) of their press releases, internal tracking data is actually very valuable, and companies are loathe to share it with competitors. After all, the data's valuable enough to be worth paying thousands of dollars a month for. So when speaking with the public, it's usually wisest to stick to the figures that you know your competitors already have access to. But they don't always do that.

Finally, your last point is not completely true either. Companies are more than free to cite to reasonable guesstimates: that is, after all, what any company that cites to NPD is doing. They can not, however, make up numbers out of whole cloth.



algorith said:
Viper1 said:
Algorith, VGC tracks retail sales.

Sony's shipment numbers and VGC's sales figures just happen to be similar. Don't take as a means to suggest VGC tracks shipments.

Tracking shipments doesn't take a whole website to do that anyway as can be seen by thousands of threads across the Internet tracking quarterly shipment numbers from all 3 console manufacturers.

 So VGchartz tracked 80,000 units more than Sony shipped for sales to end consumers... Well I suppose it's ok if it is sales to end consumers, then it's simply inaccurate overall by an unknown amount. 

You're basing that on the idea that stock was at 0 at the start of the quarter.  You can sell more than you ship in a quarter unless stock is completely dry from the reail channel and distribution channel.

Given that's a rarity for the end of the 2nd quarter, chances are very good that retail/distribution stock was at least 80,000 units or higher.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

algorith said:
binary solo said:
If the true number of 360s sold to consumers is 38.17 million (36.77 + the so called missing 1.4 million) then VGC is off on its estimate of global Xbox 360 sales by a Mammoth 3.8%.

Imagine that after estimating Xbox 360 sales for 4 years VGC has only managed to achieve 96.2% accuracy. What utterly outrageous incompetence that VGC should claim any sort of credibility at estimating world sales of gaming consoles if it barely manages to be 96% accurate. They should shut this site down for being such big fraudsters leading us on with made up numbers they just pull out of their arses. I demand a refund!!

And what's worse? They are showing their obvious hatred for the Xbox 360. The whole internet is against Xbox, and that includes VGC. You should all be ashamed of yourselves, picking on the greatest console ever made like that. Just wait until Natal comes, it'll show you all! How it must gall the Sony loving VGC crew that they have to show the 360 in second place.

Life as we know it is now over.

 I don't think the problem is the +/-4% deviation but rather the inability to correct the numbers once the accurate information has been provided. At that pace, it adds up and deviates even further making the numbers down right unusable even for estimates. 

VGC adjusts its numbers all the time. VGC adjusted up it's 360 numbers for November 2009 soon after the November NPD data came out (which is also an estimate by the way so it isn't 100% accurate either).

VGC LTD estimate of sales to consumers is 2.23 million less than Microsoft's confirmed 39 million 360's sold to consumers + sitting on store shelves around the world. You might have unreasonable expectations of accuracy but for me that is an excellent result. And there is no reason to believe VGC's LTD estimates will be any less accurate in another 4 years.

And which accurate information have you got? You've got 39 million shipped, but you don't have any accurate information on sales to consumers. Give us definitive sales to consumers information and the adjustments will come. Just don't pull 1.4 million out of the air like the OP did and expect ioi to run off and change the numbers.



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