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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can PS3 Continue its trend & Sell 14 MILLION in 2010?! ( A deep analysis)

Hmmmm I dunno. I think the PS3 has a better chance of being flat or down than continuing its rise, but I would be happy to be surprised. :D



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It is definitely possible. SONY will be well on track for 14million+ for the first half of the year. However imo they will need another price drop to maintain momentum into the holidays.

Personally id be aiming for a $50 price drop in the first week of October 2010 -- though $20 and $30 price drop options are also viable for creating some holiday momentum.



I'd imagine it's significantly higher baseline in the 1st half will be somewhat countered by a comparable decline in the 2nd. They won't be riding off the slim launch anymore, and won't have the same sort of artificial bump the relaunch brought. Probably flat YOY.



kowenicki said:
@darth

I'd say thats a guarantee if they are close... the problem comes when they say to stockholders we met our shipping target but lost more money. Thats a wtf moment for analysts and stockholders.

I don't think so

SONY stated they don't think gaming will be profitable till 2011, shareholders know this



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

darthdevidem01 said:
kowenicki said:
@darth

I'd say thats a guarantee if they are close... the problem comes when they say to stockholders we met our shipping target but lost more money. Thats a wtf moment for analysts and stockholders.

I don't think so

SONY stated they don't think gaming will be profitable till 2011, shareholders know this

Just because they know it doesn't make it OK or mean that shareholders need to support it. Business does not survive on unkept promises and shareholders can be a very fickle lot.

If the PS3 fails to make a profit by the date (2011 you say), I imagine there will be quite a major upheaval.

I don't see them moving 14mil consoles this year. I still think the "slim" effect is going to wear off, especially if Sony's big release-game year is blown all during the first half. I don't think the ICO game will move consoles if it released during the holidays (as great as the game will be) as evidenced by the other 2 ICO releases. GT5 (mid summer?) will move consoles, but that effect will wear off pretty quickly.

I'll add this to my predictions in the predictions thread.

 

 

 

 



"Man is born free but is everywhere in chains" - Rousseau

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I don't think so, simply based on the fact that slim doesn't launch twice....or DOES IT! I think sony will have a rough time beating Q3 and Q4 Sony Fiscal Years!



 

darthdevidem01 said:
Sephiroth357 said:
It will peak this year.

It will peak when its $199 like every other consoles ever made has (or even below that)

darth, you are implying Wii will peak this year instead of 2008.

dolemit3 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
 

false

SONY's target was laughed at & we had to hear how they were being stupid

not many people believed a price drop would come due to the losses they were making

an example:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=4086

And there were countless threads on this topic

That's one LOL worthy article.

TheSource was not that wrong since he did say it's possible if Sony does a price cut of $100. It's just he didn't think Sony afford to do that and his estimate was based on a $50 one.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

I expect 15 million for 2010

I should be it's biggest year. All the PS3's biggest games that everyones been waiting for is coming out in 2010, lots of system sellers.



saicho said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Sephiroth357 said:
It will peak this year.

It will peak when its $199 like every other consoles ever made has (or even below that)

darth, you are implying Wii will peak this year instead of 2008.

dolemit3 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
 

false

SONY's target was laughed at & we had to hear how they were being stupid

not many people believed a price drop would come due to the losses they were making

an example:

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=4086

And there were countless threads on this topic

That's one LOL worthy article.

TheSource was not that wrong since he did say it's possible if Sony does a price cut of $100. It's just he didn't think Sony afford to do that and his estimate was based on a $50 one.

Saicho why can it not?

I mean we have DQX potentially launching in Japan, Zelda Wii in the west

why can this not be wii's peak year?



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

Yes I think so, If it gets another price cut, we could see 16-18million consoles. The PS3 game library is superb, something for everybody , and 2010 games comming are also great, then add free online game play, bluray player, WiFi, Internet browser, you can't go wrong, also there reliable consoles. 2010 will be the best year yet !!