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Hi,
I'm just submitting a bet system, donno if you'll like it but it may give you some ideas.

So let's say 5 people bet on the sales of a game.
Player 1 : bet 100 points on 5000 sales
Player 2 : bet 20 points on 3000 sales
Player 3 : bet 30 points on 6000 sales
Player 4 : bet 150 points on 8000 sales
Player 5 : bet 10 points on 14000 sales

Total pot : 310 points

The game sells 6200 copies.

Player 1 : 80,6% accuracy, he wins 0,806*100 = 80,6 shares.
Player 2 : 48,4% accuracy, he wins 0,484*20 = 9,7 shares.
Player 3 : 96,7% accuracy, he wins 0,967*30 = 29 shares.
Player 4 : 71% accuracy, he wins 0,71*150 = 106,4 shares.
Player 5 : 0% accuracy, he wins 0*10 = 0 shares.

That makes a total of 80,6+9,7+29+106,4+0 = 225,7 shares.

Player 1 gets 80,6 * 310 / 225,7 = 111 points, for a bet of 100 points and an accuracy of 80,6%.
Player 2 gets 14 points, for a bet of 20 points and an accuracy of 48,4%.
Player 3 gets 40 points, for a bet of 30 points and an accuracy of 96,7%.
Player 4 gets 147 points, for a bet of 150 points and an accuracy of 71%.
Player 5 gets 0 point, for a bet of 10 points and an accuracy of 0%.

So you can add parameters easily.
For example, if you want to give more money to people predicting earlier, you can set a multiplier for the shares they win.
If you want to give an advantage to people playing often, you can add a multiplier to the pot. For example, people bid 310 points, you give them back 341 points (10% more).



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kuraobi said:
Hi,
I'm just submitting a bet system, donno if you'll like it but it may give you some ideas.

So let's say 5 people bet on the sales of a game.
Player 1 : bet 100 points on 5000 sales
Player 2 : bet 20 points on 3000 sales
Player 3 : bet 30 points on 6000 sales
Player 4 : bet 150 points on 8000 sales
Player 5 : bet 10 points on 14000 sales

Total pot : 310 points

The game sells 6200 copies.

Player 1 : 80,6% accuracy, he wins 0,806*100 = 80,6 shares.
Player 2 : 48,4% accuracy, he wins 0,484*20 = 9,7 shares.
Player 3 : 96,7% accuracy, he wins 0,967*30 = 29 shares.
Player 4 : 71% accuracy, he wins 0,71*150 = 106,4 shares.
Player 5 : 0% accuracy, he wins 0*10 = 0 shares.

That makes a total of 80,6+9,7+29+106,4+0 = 225,7 shares.

Player 1 gets 80,6 * 310 / 225,7 = 111 points, for a bet of 100 points and an accuracy of 80,6%.
Player 2 gets 14 points, for a bet of 20 points and an accuracy of 48,4%.
Player 3 gets 40 points, for a bet of 30 points and an accuracy of 96,7%.
Player 4 gets 147 points, for a bet of 150 points and an accuracy of 71%.
Player 5 gets 0 point, for a bet of 10 points and an accuracy of 0%.

So you can add parameters easily.
For example, if you want to give more money to people predicting earlier, you can set a multiplier for the shares they win.
If you want to give an advantage to people playing often, you can add a multiplier to the pot. For example, people bid 310 points, you give them back 341 points (10% more).

I was thinking in the same direction, but wasn't able to think about an formula/algorithm. Thanks alot for doing this, I like your suggestion.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024

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bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

No problem. I think it's quite a good system, because it's quite fair. For example if everyone has the same accuracy, everyone get their points back. If you're more accurate than others you win points, if you're less accurate you lose points.



When are you going to launch the new prediction league ?



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Yeah. I'll get back to it real soon.

I saw it was away for awhile, and noticed it got re-activated. Expect new games this week.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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^ When will you begin? I really start to miss it and there are coming some cool games like lost odyssey , Pes 2008 , mass effect , uncharted drakes fortune , Wii fit ... to predict.



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Is the Prediction league dead?



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^it hasnt been updated for a while now



^I know it and I really think the Prediction league is one of the great things that the site offers!



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