- Yes i know that the N64 and NGC and SMG don't have great sales compared to the other mario games actually, i was just mentioning SMG because it is on the same console as it is "squeal" NSMBWii (while i don't like refering to it as a squeal, because the two games play differently)

-But these games (SM64, SMS, SMG and i'll add it here too SMG2) don't have the same appeal as a Mario platformer on a 2D plane like the past games, believe me or not a 3D game is not as accesible as a 2D game, these have a huge appeal to consumers because of it is pretty simple mechanic(you just have to go from left to right), that's why when you check the VC why is SMB3(followed by SMB and SMW ithink?) are more downloaded than SM64? it isn't because it is considered the Best Mario game or it is a classic, because it has a simple mechanic that everyone can follow and it is the best the genre has to offer. (I like SMW the best though!)

Believe me being on a handheld or a console doesn't make a diffrence sales wise (see Mario Kart for example, it is a software monster)

So expect it before it happen: Super Mario Galaxy 2 will NEVER sell as well as NewSMBWii.

- and as for this Publisher thing: No acctually Sony is not a famous publisher, it is a famous hardware company with global brand recognition, but it is not associated with software that much, what games Sony owns that sold in the 10M+ range beside GT?

And i admit the developer part was not as important, actually only the hardcore gamers care about these things...(there is a light gun shooter on WiIWare that looks avarage and has the most generic graphic style out there, but it is developed by a Ninteno studio called Inteligent Systems which is my favorite Nintedo developers ever! so i want to check it out ><)

- Rare didn't make Halo as far as i know O_o

- AC's was a huge success, yes, and i honestly don't know exactly why, Obisoft is a known developer and the game might have gotten a push as ads go( i don't know really), but in the end some games are succesful and some aren't, not everthing on the market will be a succsess story.

If you ask me, i think Sony should have advertised the Sackboys as their new mascot or something, or make the game bundled with the hardware (like Wii Sports, to ensure it gets on the hands of as many people as possible), or the Sackboys are not as appealing as i though they are...

As for your last point, i kinda  agree, but not because LBP has floaty jumps O_o

LBP and NSMBWii, both are great.
LBP: I like to play Online on different fanmade levels ;o) The graphics & musics are great. There's one problem, the gameplay, sometimes, it's really good made, sometimes, you jump and jump but without success.
NSMBWii: If they could add a little bit of history, it could be better but the game is really fun. I love it.

People should stop to speak about LBP.

The reason why LBP did not sell as well as Mario is very very simple. Nobody care about LBP. That's as simple as that. It's not even a true platformer and the PS3 public is especially not directed towad this type of game.

But even on Wii it would have had even less success. People wants to play the true platformer, Mario.

I cut your post up a bit, so you can see what parts of it I'm actually responding to.

Yes. I've played both, though not at length. But I think that in this case, it's not even relevant. The image the game has is more important than anything when it comes to sales.

And for the record, I don't think New Super Mario Bros. Wii does anything mindblowingly innovative either. But Super Mario Bros. did. That's the game that started the series and shot it up to stardom. It even made Mario more famous than Mickey Mouse. And that's the game Little Big Planet would have to outdo in terms of innovation to reach the same iconic status.

The Playstation 3 has some quirky but fun games. But take a quick look at the top 50 best sold games for it. In the quirky but fun category you'll find two Guitar Hero games, a ratchet and clank game (which is so focused on weapons I'm not really sure it belongs there) and Little Big Planet. Then take a look at the Wii top 5. Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Sports Resort, Mario Kart Wii and Wii Play. It's just a completely different type of games that make up the stuff people buy on the Wii. Because, I believe, the image of why you want a wii is different, the games people buy on the console is different. There are very few people that bought a PS3 to play Buzz, Little Big Planet or Ratchet and Clank. There are millions who bought the Wii for Wii Sports and Mario Kart Wii. It's a huge difference, and it makes a huge difference for sales of respective types of games on the consoles.

Same with your wife. She loves Little Big Planet, but she wouldn't think that experience was available on the PS3, so she wouldn't buy it. If she told her friends about it they'd probably shake their head and not believe her. It would be a completely different story with New Super Mario Bros. Wii. because the Wii's image is completely different.

I'd think that it's not as much about which console has the most amount of platform lovers (though I'd suspect the Wii would have a much higher percentage) but a case of which console has the most people that use it to play local multiplayer games with their friends and family. Using that logic, New Super Mario Bros. Wii would sell around equal to Mario Kart or Wii Sports (without bundles), while Little Big Planet only has the PS3 Guitar Hero and possibly Ratchet and Clank crowd to draw on.

I hope that you get my reasoning. It isn't all that much about the games, but the marketing.

Frankly I don't see the Wii surpassing 125 million units.  Mind you, I didn't think it would be where it is now, so I know Nintendo could prove me wrong. 

My reasoning is that I expect Nintendo to release their next console in 2012.  Assuming 20% declines, that would mean 16 million in 2010, 12 millino in 2011 and 10 million in 2012.  That would put Wii at 108 million.  At that point, I expect Nintendo to release a Wii backwards compatible console to try and keep all of their current console owners.  I then expect Wii sales to drop like GC sales dropped.

However, having said that, NSMB Wii could keep selling on their new console for even higher sales.

Complete brain fart on my part with Rare.  I mean to say Perfect Dark, but somehow I got confused.  That's what I get for trying to write intellignt responses late at night.

And I did find an example of a game where the developer may come into play.  Infinity Ward's Call of Duty games seem to sell better than Treyarch'ss / Gray Matter's.

I think you hit the nail right on the head with the simplicity statement.  My argument could just as well be applied as to why didn't SMG sell as well as NSMBWii is selling, given that it's also a Mario platformer by Nintendo on the Wii.  In fact, SMG is probably more innovative and complex, but that also means it's not as simple to just pick and up play as a good old fashioned 2D platformer.

Good point.  If it's the same gamers that are playing Mario Kart that are also picking up NSMBWii, we already know that there are about 20 million of them.  Using the same logic on the PS3 for gamers that play Ratchet, there were only 3 million on the PS2 and under 2 million on the PS3, so LBP has already surpassed those gamers and had broader appeal.  The other interesting point about that is that Ratchet games, just like LBP, don't seem to sell well in Japan.  It seems like all of the gamers who like platformers really prefer the Wii.

Thanks to everyone who replied for the intelligent sales analysis discussion!

One thing to remember with the Wii in predicting hw for NSMB to tie to is how long it has taken lesser machines to decline.

N64/GC were still at 30% and 40% respectively of their peak fiscal year three fiscal years later and thats without significant third party support.

April 1997-March 1998 N64: 9.42m

April 2000-March 2001 N64: 2.85m

N64: 225m SW Market LTD, 18 third party million sellers life time, only four of which cleared 2m. One of those topped 3m in 6 years.

April 2002-March 2003 GC: 5.76m

April 2005-March 2006 GC: 2.35m

GC: 208m SW market LTD, 15 third party million sellers life time - only two of which cleared 2m in 5-6 years.

Wii:  26m peak (April 2008-March 2009)

    Wii Peak *35% in March 2012 Year... 9.1m Wiis shipped worldwide

I don't think it will decline that fast though. Through December 2009 we have something like this for Wii:

Wii: ~516m SW market LTD (shipments - I'm estimating), 45 third party million sellers lifetime (VGC sellthrough), 10 of which topped 2m (~3/year). Five topped 3m, one has topped 5m...and this is in half the time N64/GC were on the market. So even when Zii, PS4, X720 are introduced, Wii should continue to see fairly ample support from third parties - slowing its declines.

It isn't going to do 6m-18m-26m-20m-16m-12.8m-10.2m and then behave like N64 did and drop like a rock. The tail should be rather long as the fanbases for the successful third party companies will still be active on Wii. Rather than selling 27m from April 1997 to the end of its lifespan as N4 did after peaking at 9.4m in the first year Wii will probably decline more softly and add ~32m-36m starting from its last 10m+ year.

I'm wondering then if the PS2 is a more comparable system to the Wii, sales wise, rather than to the N64 or GC.

PS2's sales in millions were as follows, starting with FY99, from April 1999 to March 2000 (source: http://www.sony.co.jp/SonyInfo/IR/financial/fr/hist_fy09_Q2.xls):

1.41     9.20     18.07     22.52     20.10     16.17     16.22     14.78     13.66     7.91

It's peak years were FY02 and FY03.  Roughly half of its sales were from FY99 to FY03 (start to peak).  If Wii does the same, that puts its lifetime sales to somewhere near 140 million.

If the Wii follows the above pattern, with it's sales percentage drops matching those of the PS2 after its last 20+ million year, and does 6 - 18 - 26 - 20 - 16 - 16 - 15 - 13 - 8 = 138 million.

Using your logic, if the Wii goes through 20% drops (6 - 18 - 26 - 20 - 16 - 13 - 10) and then does 32 million more, that would put it at 141 million.

Somehow I still don't find any of those calculations above to be believable...

I don't see the Wii declining in 2010.

I think it will beat 2009, but not match 2008, then decline from then on.

Perhaps:
6 - 18 - 26 - 20 - 23 - 20 - 16 - 13 - 9 - 6 - 2

Though it will depend on what happens at the start of next gen for those last 4-5 years really.