| TheSource said: New Super Mario Bros Wii will likely attain a 10-25% lifetime attach rate on Wii... The question is whether Wii gets to 120m or a bit more. By the end of March 2010 Wii will be at 70.5m on 20m units shipped in April 2009-March 2010. Even with steep and annual 30% drops Wii is getting past 100m easy. You get to 114m that way before sales drop under 1m/year worldwide. Based on low hw and a low attach rate the worst case scenario is probably 114 * 0.15 for NSMB Wii - 17m. With even 20% declines and a 20% attach rate the situation is completely different. You'd get to 144m that way - and a slightly higher 20% attach rate would put NSMB Wii at 29m worldwide. 125m * 1/6 Wii owners buying NSMB Wii seems about right lifetime.
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Frankly I don't see the Wii surpassing 125 million units. Mind you, I didn't think it would be where it is now, so I know Nintendo could prove me wrong.
My reasoning is that I expect Nintendo to release their next console in 2012. Assuming 20% declines, that would mean 16 million in 2010, 12 millino in 2011 and 10 million in 2012. That would put Wii at 108 million. At that point, I expect Nintendo to release a Wii backwards compatible console to try and keep all of their current console owners. I then expect Wii sales to drop like GC sales dropped.
However, having said that, NSMB Wii could keep selling on their new console for even higher sales.
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