350k-450k range for "week 1" in Japan from my list (or second overall week) and it sells 465,000 according to Famitsu numbers. Well, I can't say I'm disappointed that it is out of my predicting range but I do think some are going to be surprised from the comments in this thread haha.

it seems people a couple months back were really underestimating the powa of oldschool mario.

You know Zuc's, I'm going to say your 9m prediction is quite feasable. Simply because although things move so fast around here, I remember when CoD:W@W was being called a flop (lol) and you (along with BigJon) Were talking about how 1m was entirely possible and look what happened there.

You seem quick to dismiss yourself as being overly optimistic a lot of the times but honestly you aren't. Realistic is more like it. ;)

Well thanks.  I think it is quite feasible as well but does have to hit the higher tier of sales in all regions.  But I think I've under estimated the selling power in Mario in America a little bit (especially considering I doubt Ninty under shipped it by too much and the game is selling out) so that will help the prediction.  But I do like the middle ground a little better and maybe the 8.5 million number will turn out to be around the actual number.  But hey not like it is impossible right.

As for World at War, really what happened with that is people were dismissing it based off things that didn't matter.  Early sales and online players.  Really when I judge games, I like to give them a couple of months to actually see where they go, especially for some Wii/DS games.  Mainly for them because sometimes it takes a little longer for the word to get out and have a lot more competition on shelf space unless they can get a big brand.  But really when it came to World at War there were three things that I thought would happen and did.  First was the intense advertising by that of Activision.  Second was the lack of competition in the shooter market on the Wii and a solid shooter like World at War would shine because of it.  And three was simply because the Call of Duty brand was getting so big that when Wii owners were going in for the holidays looking for that brand... this is what they would find.  Also found Call of Duty 3 which had some good sales durin the time as well.  Everything was just setup for a good selling month in December.  Can't say the same will happen for Modern Warfare Reflex mainly due to the lack of advertising.  Really a few commercials could have made it quite a big seller but I guess they've obtained all they wanted anyways.

But yea when I was coming up with these New Super Mario Bros Wii sales I really didn't see them as too overly optimistic but I did think my "week 4" Japanese one may be and probably will be.  But I do try to be as realistic as possible with these predictions because I'm not trying to state impossible whims but feasible things that seem like "dream sales".  New Super Mario Bros Wii does actually seem like one of those titles that we are going to look back in a few years and think just how impressive its sales really were.  I mean to get almost or maybe 9 million in 7 weeks is something quite impressive.

Absolutely. I respect the way you handle things here (VGC) Very down the middle. And very logical. Its refreshing to see on gaming forums. We'll keep an eye on things in the coming weeks and see where it lands. Any way you slice it, this game has been an incredible success. I foresee Mario Kart Wii type longevity. Also, WF+ and WSR are really just racking up incredible sales as well.

The selling out could be the fault of retailers in question rather than Nintendo; they may have under-estimated demand and placed orders that were too small.

Well for my "week 1" numbers I had it at a maximum of 1300k and it did a few thousands over that. Now at 5.22 million worldwide. Over that of Modern Warfare 2 PS3 so some pretty strong sales right now.

Really accurate :)

Oh man i thought u were talkin crazy at first. But its already at 5.2 million, adn i'd say 8.5 looks like where it will end up. Good prediction nonetheless

kopstudent- come on it's me haha. When I do ever talk extremely crazy haha. I would never post something like this if I didn't think it at least had somewhat of a chance haha. But yea I guess any game potentially selling almost 9 million after 7 weeks on the market is going to come as somewhat crazy.


On another note, I'm going to update the OP for each week as kinda a "how the prediction is doing". This week it did pretty well for my higher magnitude (or the 9 million prediction) than say the middle ground (8.3 million) but of course only one week.