RolStoppable said:
super_etecoon said:
I just enjoy a few good predictions sometimes. |
- The Wii will have at least tripled the combined sales of the 360 and PS3 once all three systems have stopped selling.
- The Wii will have at least five games to sell 10+m units (excluding Wii Sports and Wii Play).
- By the end of this generation the Wii will have the most exclusive (not just console exclusive) games rated with an average score of 90 or higher.
- Austria's football team will win Euro 2008.
- By the end of 2010, I will own more than 100 games for Wii, including VC games.
Are these good enough? 
I admit that I have thrown in one really outrageous prediction among these which has a chance of close to zero to become true. Try to figure out which one it is.  |
1. This is a long battle... Winning the first year with a console does not win the war. Especially with the spending power that both Microsoft and Sony can muster... And are they really winning? Attach rates are higher on PS3 and 360... Would you rather sell 150 million consoles with an attach rate of less than 2 or 50 million consoles with an attach rate of higher then 6? Royalties make the revenues equal. There is no doubt that both PS3 and 360 games are consistently selling better portionally to the installed base.
2. Wii has very few good games. Go to gamerankings and do a search on Wii games above 80% rankings from reviewers... Wii had only 9 released so far this year, 360 had 40, and the PS3 had 29 even though they have 10 less games in gamerankings with 5 reviews or more... The reason why Wii has some big sellers is that the lineup is not deep and the install base is large. The attach rate for Wii is the lowest of this generation. Which essentially means people buy a Wii a few games and don't get any more after that.
3. The controller, the lack of raw processing / GPU power, and the demographics of buyers make the exclusivity thing inevitable. There is no doubt that GTA IV, Call of Duty 4, Assasin's Creed, etc. can't be done on the Wii as they are (Graphically and AI wise - And sorry, I own MP3 for my Wii and it doesn't hold a candle to Gears, Halo 3, Ratchet & Clank, or Resistance). Otherwise, the publishers, seeing the largest nextgen install base and knowing a lack of quality content would have done ported their creations right away.
4. Don't know anything about football to comment, but I'm sure its as misguided as the others...
5. I just bought my 175th 360 game including XBLA... I even have 50 games for my PS3 including PSN... I limit myself only to games that rate higher then 70% on gamerankings. On my Wii I only have 25 games (Fun but not epic)... So, 100 isn't exactly anything to write home about. Considering that over 50% of Wii games have a less then 70.1% rating that means 50% of your collection is probably crap. Quantity also doesn't mean quality.
