Thats not really a bad thing. You never know what could happen in the future. I mean early 08 you will see the releases of GTA4, Killzone 2, and many other big titles. Plus later that year you will most likely see a new Jak game and Resistence 2. Then again its a long ways away so you never know. By then the PS3 could be down to 300 bucks with a 5GB version. We'll just have to wait and see.

1st, GTA4 is multiplat, with the better version (ie, extras) coming to 360. 2nd Killzone 2 will be lucky to make it out in Q4 o8, definitely not early 08, no way, not a chance. Also, a new Jak and Resistence game will probably not be out till 09 also, seeing as sony would be hyping them both by now if they were even within a year and a half of coming out. We will have to wait and see indeed.

Um, GTA4 isn't exclusive and KZ2 isn't coming early 2008. It's too early to tell what system will have the best lineup for 2008. Games get delayed, new ones announced, other canceled, and some move to other platforms.

A year ago, the 2007 PS3 lineup looked unbeatable. Pretty much the exact same phrases used to describe the 2008 PS3 lineup were being used to describe the 2007 lineup a year ago. Wait til VF5, Motorstorm, HSG, HS, Lair, R&K, MGS4....blah, blah blah. You can only cry wolf so many times. 

The unfortunate thing is that even if your numbers are right, Roadkiller, there's a lot of weeks between now and then for the 360 and Wii's leads to compound. While those game may do well for the system, this holiday doesn't seem like it belongs to Sony. Truth be told, if you thought otherwise you might have made your prediction for the Sony Crossover a little earlier than the release of those mega franchises. So with leads compounded by this holiday season and your prediction simply that the PS3 will sell more for every week after the release of those games, depending on the margin of difference, it will take several weeks, if not years to even level out the playing field.

So....since you're in the predicting mood (and maybe you have already stated this prediction in other places) when do you think the PS3 will overtake the 360 and the Wii in overall worldwide sales?

By the way, I'm not attacking you or saying your optimism is misguided or stupid. I just enjoy a few good predictions sometimes.

Nice predictions...

There is definitely a good chance the release of these titles will boost PS3 (weekly) sales. But to suggest that boost will last "forever" is just misguided.

(1) MGS will probably launch first in Japan. So even on the week where MGS "wins", the PS3 will probably be outsold by the 360 in the US (and possibly Europe). With so many high quality shooters out these days, I don't see the impact of MGS anywhere near as strong as it used to be. There is still a real chance the 360 would outsell the PS3 worldwide - when MGS is launched (in Japan).

(2) This depends almost entirely on how the PSP market is doing whenever GTA is released - but I think its very unlikely. The 360 will get most of the *new* sales for the game (unless reviews bag the 360 version over the PS3 one) - being the cheaper system, and more likely to have a cheaper bundle going with the game. Still - the PSP is only 50k ahead (per week) of the PS3 at the moment. PSP sales will fall post-Xmas, so there is a good chance your prediction will be true. There is though, a real chance PS3 sales > PSP sales *without* GTA anyway.

(3) FF is only really big in Japan - and the WEEK that it launches, the PS3 may sell enough hardware to beat the Wii. But this is 12 months (if not more) away, so its pretty difficult to know what will happen between then and now.

But - FF is also an extremely *top-heavy* seller - with most of the sales (80%? 90%?) happening in the first month. I would expect any significant hardware sales changes to die off within 2 weeks. I also expect the Wii to be far enough ahead (in weekly sales) for this to not really matter. But again - its so far ahead in the future, anything could happen between now and then.

DQX to be released on the Wii, anyone? 

rolstoppable i guarantee your #2 will happen. #3 might happen. no idea about #4. #5 is awesome and i wish to race you in this effort! and obviously #1 is insane, if #1 ever becomes true i will "gift you" an additional 100 VC games at that time!

Austria's soccer (not football) team will finish last.

RolStoppable said: super_etecoon said: I just enjoy a few good predictions sometimes. The Wii will have at least tripled the combined sales of the 360 and PS3 once all three systems have stopped selling. The Wii will have at least five games to sell 10+m units (excluding Wii Sports and Wii Play). By the end of this generation the Wii will have the most exclusive (not just console exclusive) games rated with an average score of 90 or higher. Austria's football team will win Euro 2008. By the end of 2010, I will own more than 100 games for Wii, including VC games. Are these good enough? I admit that I have thrown in one really outrageous prediction among these which has a chance of close to zero to become true. Try to figure out which one it is.

 1.  Probably true, especially given Nintendo's success with multiple colors (as opposed to skus) with the DS.  For some reason I really want the DS Red/Black model even though I already own a blue DS phat and a white DS lite.  Maybe that's me being a sucker for Nintendo, but I don't think I'm alone.  Guaranteed, I will be getting a green Wii when it hits stores.  I think there can easily be about 10-15 million units sold to customers who already have Wiis.

 2. This one looks funny if we look at trends from last generation, but of course that would be insane.  The Wii will have an equal user base to that of the Gamecube by Summer of 2008, so games like Brawl and Mario will have that extra edge.  I'll add Wii Fit, Animal Crossing and the next Zelda to get five.  Seems like a worthy prediction.  Of course I think there will also be some BrainTrainingDogCooking game in there somewhere too that captures the imagination of casual executives and soccer moms everywhere.

3. This one's a no brainer. The Wii is easier and cheaper to produce for.  As the PS2 slows down (this will be its last Christmas, at least for major software sales) there will be fewer games being made for both systems.  Couple this with the fact that most PS3 games are on the 360 and vice versa and I don't see any way that the other two would have more exclusives.

4. I'm calling BS on this one.  I don't know why, it just seems like the right thing to do.

5. Including VC titles I'm at 25 after year one.  Once Nintendo brings out a greatest hits line I'll pick up at least 10 more from this year.  I think you are more hardcore than I am (You've already beaten MP3 4 times, I have yet to finish), so I'd imagine you'll hit that even before the xmas of 2010.

lets make it 20 VC games. 100 was ridiculous. no way in hell #1 is happening. i mean i'm guessing ps3 and 360 will each sell between 30-35 million. and wii i think will get just over 100 million, but it could be more i dunno. but even if you think the other two will only sell 25 million each, triple that combined is still 150 million wii's! thats insane.

and yes it's a promise.

RolStoppable said: super_etecoon said: I just enjoy a few good predictions sometimes. The Wii will have at least tripled the combined sales of the 360 and PS3 once all three systems have stopped selling. The Wii will have at least five games to sell 10+m units (excluding Wii Sports and Wii Play). By the end of this generation the Wii will have the most exclusive (not just console exclusive) games rated with an average score of 90 or higher. Austria's football team will win Euro 2008. By the end of 2010, I will own more than 100 games for Wii, including VC games. Are these good enough? I admit that I have thrown in one really outrageous prediction among these which has a chance of close to zero to become true. Try to figure out which one it is.

Wow.....

1. Lets say that the 360 and ps3 sell 50 million, and thats low, since both are on track to sell more, the wii would have 150 million..........

2. Possibly matters on total sales, again look at ps2 sales and see how many sold above 10 million.

3 Hard to say, developers are going to make crap as long as the sales continue like they are, 360 currently is selling big on good games.

4 BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

5 You must be a huge nerd!!!!!!!!!!!!!! O.O

3