Where have I heard this b4?

Anyway... I'll get back to you when I find out what these "expectations" are.

This is about as likely as the CC Pro ensuring a legion of PS360 ports.   Where are all these cake ports, Swand hits market in just another quarter and so far it's got just RE5?

I'd say the deafening lack of info on Sphereldo info 3 months from launch is discussion worthy in itself.   Natal at least is a year off, the lack of public rollout is somewhat understandable there, but SCE really has no excuse... I'm sort of wondering if it'll get delayed?

I'm of the opinion that neither will be as big as the wiimote, balance board or M+.

I seem to be in the minority that thinks SoMo will fare better than Natal.

SoMo has a pointer. Even if the motion side of things fails hard it can still rely on better aiming controls for any shooter. IMO this would automatically make any 360/PS3 shooter superior on the PS3.

The wand/nunchuk is a proven concept. A 'controller free' solution to a non-existant problem is a punt.

Maybe for the game publishers but not sure how it would work for the consumers.

At best, it will sell to existing PS3 users who are interested to buy Wii as a second system because of the casual games and motion control. For new consumers with casual games in mind, they would pay $199 for Wii and Wii Sports but $299 for PS3 and cost of wand. Even if a game is bundled with wand, that's more than $100 different (perhaps close to $150).

For anyone who said there is no expectation for the wand or we don't know Sony's expectation for the wand:

Sony must have some kind of expectation for wand or it wouldn't spend the R&D to make it.

Currently we don't know what Sony's expectation is for PSP Go since it was never published. Therefore, we can always call PSP Go meets expectation even though it had underwhelmed launch number world wide and it didn't really re-energize the sales for PSP as a whole. At least we know each PSP Go sold would give Sony a pretty good profit margin. Would we use the same line of logic on the wand? As long as Sony makes money on each wand sold (and peripherals usually do), it wouldn't matter how many units of wand are sold.

I will agree they will both fail.
What remains to be seen is what the real expectations are.
Microsoft is making a lot of noise with Natal so they are setting high expectations.
Sony comparatively has done less PR around the wand...

I agree.

If wand is still on scheduled to be released in Spring 2010, I'm wondering why we don't see more games showing off the wand control. If Sony is waiting after New Year to show off the games, would it be enough time to build up the excitement? Also, with its packed release schedule from Jan-Mar 2010, does it really want to release wand to take the headline away from its big exclusive titles or vice versa?

I think a lot of people who described the Wii as "waggle" are now singing the virtues of motion control because it is being done by other companies (i.e., Sony and Microsoft).

Even at the most successful -- Wii Balance Board successful -- you are looking at a 40% attach rate for these peripherals. That is 12M at a 30M base and 14M at a 35M base.

Given a year-long (minimum) development cycle and the probable low sales numbers, these devices are NOT going to be the big thing that everyone is making them out to be.

Mike from Morgantown

As expected :)

The biggest issue I see with these motion controls is the space required. Unlike the Wii controller the PS3 and 360 controllers also recognize your movement through space.

How many hard core gamers in dorm rooms and bedrooms with small TVs are going to get up and move around for either controller?

The fact is that these controllers are going to primarily appeal to casual gaming experiences. Natal might have broader use for "fitness", "group activities", and "physical training". in your living room. But, all are casual.