Really quick, let me say that these are my sloppy, collective thoughts on Natal and the Sony Wand and how well they will be received.

Now you're probably asking yourself, "Why does this Ninty fanboy think that Natal and the Sony Wand will fail?"  To simplify my answer, I'd like to say one word. Disruption.  The Wii came into a market that was so focused on HD visuals, bigger and better hardware, and the future of the medium through the desires of last generation's gamers that an entire market was left generally ignored.  Now it's 3 years later and this market isn't so untapped anymore.  They've moved to the console that spoke to their needs; their accessible, more lax game playing needs.  It's not longer disruption products that're being pitched at these casual game players but rather, it's a drive towards a "We have that too" race to catch up.

That said, I have to say that I full heartily believe the Natal and the Sony Wand will not meet the expectations of most people who follow this industry.   The general mentality is that because the PS3 and 360 are much more powerful platforms than the Wii(graphically) and because their respective motion-based devices will be better than a Wii remote, Natal and the Sony Wand will seem to take over the more casual market over night.  Sometimes, I think it's forgotten that software creates momentum.  Will software like Ricochet or a Motion ready LittleBigPlanet be what these types of game players want?  Small XBLA titles like Ricochet and games with a traditional control scheme with one of these devices tacked on like Resident Evil 5 and LittleBigPlanet seem to be want several publishers are shooting for.  I'm sorry to honestly can't say that these games are disruptive. 

Will third party developers who develop on Wii flock to HD consoles and come up with a line-up for unproven hardware?  I doubt it.  The development for HD consoles has proven time and time again to be pricey and those relatively new to the architecture of these machines are definitely going to have a hard time.  Another thing that comes to mind, what types of strategies will they use to sell these titles?  They can borrow strategies that worked well for the Wii, the commercial style of Carvinal Games, the bundling of Wii Sports, the unique covers of Madden on Wii, but here's the thing.  You probably know it by now. GASP!  It's not disruptive.

In the end, the market will speak with its millions of dollars.  I can't really say that I'm right or I'm wrong but I don't see Natal or the Sony Wand being the megahits they've been conceived to be.  I don't know.  Maybe I'm just a cynical Ninty fanboy.

i agree. However i think Natal might have a chance at reaching good numbers if M$ is willing to spend the money needed to market the console to a new audience as well as convince existing users to upgrade. And so far it looks like M$ is really taking this seriously. But i say wait till they are released to judge.

What if Natal succeeds and Sony's Wand fails? This could and probably will happen. Casual gamers flock to the XBox 360 which would be at very low prices by Fall 2010. Casual gamers are most influenced by cheapest price and the latest trend.
Natal will be the biggest seller of HD consoles in 2010. Natal will inject new life into the XBox 360.

I actually see this happening. Regardless of the quality of MS products (I dont think much of them), they are excellent at being salesmen and promoters, and Natal vs Wand is a great demonstration of this. Really, what's so different? One's less accurate but hands free, the other is more accurate but with hardware. Technologically not much, but MS loves tooting its horn and thats why the media is much more aware of Natal.

fotr the love of gawd.....Smokin...Im ashamed of you for beating a dead hoarse( seems to very popular with the camp)....can we just WAIT till they actually have 100% official showing? SONY's shit is still goin through the idea phase adding and changing stuff..it doesn't have a name. NATAL is worst we knooooow........just a name, both are not fully revealed., the line up? also scarce..... finally, somebody reads to much malstrome

Out of the two, I think Natal has a much bigger chance of succeeding. Sony wand is very similar to the Wiimote but currently lacks a nunchuck so you have to use the DS3 with one hand (no thanks...). Natal on the other hand brings something new and if used well I can see it meeting expectations.

Well if we are talking expectations we have to go by what the companies are saying. I think its too early for either at this point but based on whats already coming out about natal and what MSFT is saying its going to be very hard to meet those expectations. Theyre talking "console launch" and "replacing the remote in living rooms" Those are pretty lofty at this point.

And sonys wand, i dont know why theyre even making it to be honest. I guess if they bundle it it may convince some families or some people girlfriends to let them get a PS3 but just like the ipod is the de facto mps3 player, the wii will always be the de factor motion sensing console i believe.

I really havent heard much about what sony expects from the wand so i dont know what a realistic expectation is to be honest. But as for Natal, it will not replace the remote contorl in living rooms. ever. And as for a console launch its going to be a debate with one side saying we see launch numbers every holiday (Fall of 2010 rumored) and another side saying its selling like all holidays so it will be a push to that argument.

Sean Maelstrom has nothing to do with this.

Also, I guess we'll have to wait for Sony's line-up.  This is just an opinion for the now.

Microsoft will spend lots on advertising and pushing Natal in the USA which will be the key market. Most things which are fashionable and popular usually start off big in the USA and then take over worldwide.
Money spent on Natal advertising could be bigger than Halo 3.
Natal will have a lot of games it will be launched with which will drive its sales. Future big games on XBox 360 could have the Natal option which would further drive the Natal's popularity. Natal needs no hardware. It will be innovation, revolutionary and may take the video game industry into the future.
Wii was the start. Natal could be the next move.

Best cell phones never even make it to USA,  Best electronis come out in Japan first.  Japan and Europe gets the best cars, many never even make it to the USA.

Theres a huge wide world beyond the USA CaptinMerica.  And much of the time USA is the last to get the best toys. 

We know no games for Natal so dont say there will be lots.  Option for natal wont sale it.  You need natal only games like GTA and HAlo to sale it.