I don't think either will be successful, but it has nothing to do with the console itself or the idea. Video games at this point are a business that as been fined tuned to stomp out all creativity and simply make money. Natal and wand are both a risk, and since they're HD consoles the risk is much greater than on the Wii in terms of production time and price.

The Wii is successful because Nintendo is developing games for it, they threw in their lot with motion control gaming and planned the whole thing out from minute 1. It doesn't make them marvelously visionary beyond that, but with natal and wand you have to look at the rest of the game industry.

For the most part developers are not a creative bunch. Why else do we have formula shooter #56,288 coming out this generation instead of seeing new genres or some real leaps in gameplay? They have a safe little money bubble for themselves and nothing is going to pull them out without a lot of kicking and screaming. I'm willing to bet 99% of the games that are developed using motion controls will probably have it as an option right along side the traditional gamepad.

I'm not saying natal and wand aren't great ideas, I think natal is fascinating personally. I just don't think the video game industry in its current form allows for much movement outside established money making methods. Natal and wand will be poked by the game industry like moneys to a monolith, but that's about all there's going to be this generation.

I mean hell, the Wii has almost 50% of the market, and it's way cheaper to develop for and third parties are STILL afraid to put some real effort into that console. Can anyone name a AAA non-Nintendo title for the Wii? (no rehashes or critical bombs) I mean a genuinely great Wii game that's not made by Nintendo. That damn console is free money with some effort and a bit of creativity, but the industry has devoted neither.

That should tell you all you need to know about the fate of natal and wand.

They won't fail to meet my expectations. Then again, my expectations for them are incredibly low...

They will both fail, why most of the casual gamers who already own a Wii would buy a 360 + Natal or a PS3 + sphere for the same result.

One of these days I'll have to do a "Why Natal Will Work" thread if only just to cancel out the 10 "Natal Will Fail" threads we get a week...

I'd be very pleasantly surprised. The reason I like the Wii so much is because it is pushing boundaries, if wand and natal usher in a new age like the side scroller era and 3d era I'll be happy. Very happy.

I'm just more pessimistic about corporate strategies within the game industry.  Moreso than the 80s/early 90s video games are a business. Emphasis on business, not video games.

Think of it from another direction: the video game industry has gotten so predictable that for the most part a bunch of untrained and biased analysts (most of us on these boards) can predict how a game will sell and be reviewed before it's ever released.  Sure there's crazy outliers but by and large the boards as a whole is pretty spot-on.  They know what makes money, we know what makes money, that's why it's so easy to predict a game before it's ever released.

The problem with motion controls is they can't be predicted. There's no formula to follow, no guarenteed paycheck. Name a company willing to dump $50,000,000 exploring new territory.  Why risk that money when you can make shooter #56, 289 following a proven money making formula?

Natal has a chance to make some dent into the market the Wii established simply because Microsoft will probably make it an integral part of their next system and market it up to high heaven. However, it won't do what Nintendo did with the Wii because the market is already there and the 'wow' factor has been established.

Why has NO ONE considered the possibility that the Wand might succees!?

(I haven't either btw)

aaah, numonex, here's the pop question: What would you have said about Natal if it were Sony's technology, I wonder :)

do you guys remember how huge the eye toy was? remember how it pushed millions of consoles and was the sole reason PS2 won last gen ? me nether >_> thats all im saying.