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The biggest issue I see with these motion controls is the space required. Unlike the Wii controller the PS3 and 360 controllers also recognize your movement through space.

How many hard core gamers in dorm rooms and bedrooms with small TVs are going to get up and move around for either controller?

The fact is that these controllers are going to primarily appeal to casual gaming experiences. Natal might have broader use for "fitness", "group activities", and "physical training". in your living room. But, all are casual.