mr-money said: Yes, but how big is the market out there for Halo. My bets say the entire population would love to play Wii Sports, whilst the big manly Halo 3 appeals only to MALEs (already eliminating 1/2 the population) and HARDCORE GAMERS (eliminating a whole lot more).   What type of person doesn't find Bowling enjoyable??

 An armless man.

Time for the deprogramming. Those knuckle dragging males have been the prime market for gaming. They occupy the majority segment of every single console. Even with the successes Nintendo has made not traditional gamers, they do not make up the majority of their user base. Which to be honest is a very good thing. I would be utterly terrified for the console otherwise.

Here is the reality that market getting mocked or marginalized is actually the most relevant market. They are the known commodity, and they spend the most. Meanwhile the other demographics are unknown. Actually those demographics are unstable. In other words they might tire of gaming, or move on to a new abomination.

We will know if those are solid demographics sometime next year when Nintendo releases their metrics. After the fervor should have dropped off. We will know if its going to remain a permanent trend or not. More importantly we will know if it has long term benefits. Even if the console sells well if these new customers do not buy many games for game developers it will be like they do not exist.

Anyway don't mock the main demographic it is important, and frankly for most of us if the other demographics gained dominance on a console it would be bad for the core and hardcore gamers. That is one of the greatest drawbacks of the Wii. The subtle fear that in the casual fervor the more mainstream titles might get pushed out or to other platforms entirely.

Can you see it now soap opera games, and golden girl games dominating the Wii library next year. I hope that made some of you shudder. I cannot imagine why any core gamer is happy the prospect that the market could be moving away from them. Chances are your not going to be happy with a game geared towards a forty year old women.

I applaud Resident Evil 4 it was a unexpected success. However the exception hardly proves the rule. Other mainstream ports on the console have done poorly. All this particular game has proved is that a very good port at a low price in the middle of a dead season can do well for itself. Even so it has taken months for it to drag itself to its current sales. Even then it has only accomplished a six percent attachment rate.

To some that might be acceptable, but that is hardly note worthy. Even the vaunted Metroid Prime 3 has yet to break four percent. In the plainest terms possible Resident Evil 4 proves nothing. Yes there appears to be a market for such games, but it is not showing itself to be a large market. Meanwhile Mario Party 8 is fast approaching a twenty percent attachment rate. I can site the attachment rates all day long comparing the demographics. Needless to say though there is no proof that the Wii has anything approaching a strong core or hardcore presence.

Which just does not sound right based on what Nintendo has told the press about their consoles demographics. I think Famitsu brought us a very valid point not too long ago. The machines are selling, but the systems are getting abandoned after a few months. They are collecting dust, and honestly I am really starting to wonder if it is true.

Could the Wii really be all flash and no substance. In other words does it look pretty to new buyers. They buy it buy a couple games, and then they are done with it. I will admit I have not touched my Wii in months. Nobody in my house has touched it in over a month. Now of the four other Wii owners I know in real life three are just like me, and the forth is playing the thing all the time with his very young children.

Anyway none of this is what I was discussing to begin with. Which is for whatever reason, and Nintendo has said it themselves the majority of their current owners are returning console owners. These were people that owned consoles last generation. While the new consumer demographic while significantly stronger then last generation do by no stretch comprise a majority of the user base, and probably never will.

Now if thats not the case, and these new demographics end up constituting a larger percentage of the install base, and they prove themselves shoppers then developers will support that market at the expense of the core market. Were the console composed of twenty percent older women. Roughly twenty percent of the games should end up being geared towards that demographic. Which in turn means that developers making those games are not making traditional games.

Think of the console like a television channel, and for example sake lets say its a channel that shows horror movies nonstop. Then lets say the market explodes, because for a couple hours each week they run a my little pony marathon. Hey the guys in charge are demented, or seriously depressed. No matter what the reason suddenly twenty percent of that weeks viewers tune in for my little pony. The network is pleased, and wants more viewers. So they start airing more programs like my little pony. Unfortunately for the horror buffs that takes hours of the schedule that might have been dedicated to oh Gothic horror. Eventually if twenty percent of the fans like that they are going to get twenty percent of the channel whether you like it or not.

The same holds true for any console that has a sizable demographic of consumers that have different interests. Developers will cater to them proportionately. They are not going to ignore them. There is money to be made by appealing to a large demographic. That is why some genres are over represented in the market as is. you will find many first person shooters. While relatively few platformers. More people want more first person shooters. While fewer people want platformers. Your still going to get platformers, but not on par with first person shooters. They will get fifteen and you will get four.

so what do you guys think of my prediction?

Sqrl said: @Lost tears of Kain, Rocket pig didn't prove anything. He gave solid reasoning for an argument but its far from proof. I tend to agree that it will break the 15m mark by end of year as my prediction shows but I think a competitive Wii and PS3 are going to hurt it a bit relative to its sales last year and I suspect it will be similar to last year and possibly on the low side of that. Which BTW, RocketPig was wrong about. Currently the 360 is sitting at 12.74 with the US already reported for the final week of October. Add in the 2.8m it did last year and the result is 15.56m not 16m which is a fair bit of difference considering we are talking about sales around 3m and that difference would be about 15% of that 3m. In any case, my main point is that while Rocketpig does make good argument its not proof. Its just a good argument, and he has definitely shown himself to be a worthwhile read even if you don't agree with him.

I didn't prove anything because... Well, because proving a future occurance is impossible. For all I know, Nintendo moved out of Redmond because they are planning a tactical nuclear strike on Microsoft. Anything can happen.

I said 16m because MS hasn't reported the final week of October yet. The last week ended on the 27th, giving them four more days to sell a few consoles. That should add about 100k to their sales overall, putting them around 12.85m. Anyway, I wasn't arguing exact numbers, just approximations. I used 16m because anyone with a brain will agree that the 360 will beat 2006's holiday numbers and 3m is the low estimate for Nov-Dec in 2007.

One thing you're missing Sqrl is that if MS starts losing markets to Sony, they have the almighty price cut option behind them, something Sony has pretty much burned to a crisp in 2007. Next year, they're not going to have a lot of options to drop to $300 quickly while MS, if push comes to shove, could burn a little cash by offering $200/250/300 price points, which would drastically change the entire face of the market.

In short, I really think the 360 has turned the corner in the NA market and can tread water in the PAL markets, at least enough to make some real headway against the PS3. And that's what it's all about for MS. They can't expect to conquer the world right off the bat and I think they'll be happy with consistent growth through all the markets each generation, something they're slowly doing over time.

RolStoppable said: KillaKB said: so what do you guys think of my prediction? My guess is something like: Wii: 45m 360: 22m Whatever the real numbers will be, I think the Wii will have at least doubled the 360's numbers by Jan 1st, 2009.

I'm wondering how you people are rationalizing these numbers. The Wii can definitely do 45m by 2009 but 22m for the 360 is completely irrational. Do you guys think the 360 is suddenly going to become the Dreamcast? It's going to sell at least 10-11m in 2007 yet some of you think that number will drop to 5-6m in 2008 after it receives another price cut, GTA IV, Halo Wars, Too Human, Alan Wake, RE5, and a load of other games. It just doesn't make sense.

It won't be long till the 360 grinds to a halt, why should it sell as good as or better than this year? Those multiplat titles are hardly hardware movers in and on themselves. GTA IV, Alan Wake and RE5 will appear on other platforms as well, with AW being a new unproven franchise and RE being new to 360, there's only GTA IV left of those multiplats that could have a major impact (of course, this is also the one with the broadest release slate with 3 simultaneous platforms).
Too Human, I really don't know what to expect. Could be good, but that doesn't automatically gain sales, and that too is a an unproven franchise.
With the hardware failure rate continuing to break records worldwide, many people are going to opt for another platform on the multiplat versions same as many gamers are steering away from Vista; games are no fun if what you're playing them on don't cooperate!

In conclusion; people are VERY wary of the 360 now, and the biggest title (s) are allready out for some time before sequels hit, so low 20 million estimates seem right imo. Of course, that's all it is; my opinion.

Rol, you're right. I was accidentally including some holiday 2006 sales in my chart so the 360 will probably come in around 8m this year.

And I keep hearing the "people who want the games for 360 already own the console" thing even after the huge spike post-price cut and Halo 3 launch. It's quickly becoming a strawman argument. The console seems to be selling itself. Before Halo 3, people were claiming that the Halo fans already owned the console and that Halo wouldn't move many consoles. Then the price cut hit and sales jumped. People said it was because Halo 3 is coming. Then Halo 3 launched and sales soared again. People said it was because of Halo. Now, over a month after the Halo launch, 360 sales are still high. The argument is becoming pretty worn out.

News flash: next year when the 360 cuts its price again, more people will buy the console. There are still plenty of people who haven't jumped on board simply because of cost. Halo, Gears, and the other good games don't magically go away after six months. They become part of an established library that will continue to move consoles for the rest of the 360's life span. Also, the argument that because RE5 and GTA won't move consoles because they're multi-plat is ridiculous. The 360 has, and will always have, a price advantage over the PS3. That in itself guarantees many people will opt for Microsoft's console over Sony when they want those games.

It's amazing how many people consider the 360 to be the next Dreamcast, even if they don't fully acknowledge what they're arguing.

i think there are definitely some wii owners, those that wii inticed into buying a game system for the first time, that won't buy many games at all and their wiis are collecting dust. my parents and my brother bought a wii after playing mine at thanksgiving last year. the only game my dad has bought is madden 07 and he has pretty much never played it. they are about 70 years old and so they are only gonna play really simple fun games like wii sports. but they don't even play that anymore except when me or my brothers come home to visit. and probably the only other games they will ever get are other really simple but very fun games like wii sports and a couple of flight games which my dad likes. so i'm thinking wii fit might spark their interest. my brother had dreamcast, xbox, and now a wii and he pretty much only gets sports games so he's played wii sports a lot but hasn't played it in a while and the only game he has got is madden 08 and zelda(which he played part way through). he'll probably get maybe like 5 - 10 games ever for the wii i'm guessing but thats the same as the other systems he's owned.

so there definitely are some people that aren't gonna be buying many games at all. however once 3rd parties start putting good games instead of crappy ports the hardcore games attach rate will go way up and the casual/mini games will continue to have good attach rates. the bad ones won't, but look at mario party, warioware, wii play(granted its only 10 dollars on top of the controller), wii sports in japan where its not bundled, and rayman rabbid rabbits. all have sold well. i'm disappointed in metroid prime 3 sales but that is the only game that makes me question the wii hardcore audience. resident evil 4 is selling extremely well considering its a port from last gen and a lot of people already bought it last gen.

also this season's great lineup of wii games along with mario galaxy, ssbb, and mario kart are gonna bring in a lot of hardcore gamers and those type of games will start getting better attach rates. and mummelman's idea that the wii will only be around for 3-4 year is hilarious. i can see the next xbox coming out in fall of '10, and the next sony and nintendo systems coming out fall of '11, so each five years. although sony might need to give up on the ps3 and realease the ps4 in 2010 with the next xbox. but i guarantee the wii will continue to sell and get some support for a year after the next nintendo system comes out. this should happen cuz despite nintendo normally cutting off all support once a new system is out the wii is gonna be so popular and have such a big base that it'd be dumb for developers to not still support it and it'll be so cheap it will continue to produce system sales. nintendo itself won't put any big new games out at that point, but 3rd parties will continue some projects on it. so it should last 6 years while the others last about 5.

RolStoppable said: I know that it is a tired argument (people who want the games of the 360 probably already own the console). Let me clarify how I mean it. I don't think that the games in 2008 will move hardware at a higher rate than the games released in 2006 and 2007. Obviously we will see some minor bumps in hardware sales when some major game releases (except for GTA IV, that one will move some more systems), but overall the average weekly sales rate of 2007 should be sustained, but not improved, in 2008, regardless of price cuts. Sustained sales (the 8m for 2008 I am expecting) don't mean that the system will share the fate of the Dreamcast. My reasoning is based on last generation. The Xbox and GC had great games and more coming down the road, they had price cuts and they reached the $150 price point much sooner than the 360 will. But did sales rates improve for these two systems in their 3rd and 4th year on the market? Not really. Most people refused to spend $99 on a GC, despite it having some of the best games last generation. The Xbox didn't fare much better. I don't consider the 360 to be the next Dreamcast, I consider it to be the next Xbox. Although I expect the 360 to end up with higher LTD sales (30m) than the Xbox, because the competition this time is weaker, mainly due the one year headstart of the 360.

Rol, I don't really disagree with your estimates. My post was more geared at the people who think the 360 is going to drop to the 5m sold mark in 2008. It just doesn't make sense.

At the minimum, I expect the 360 to sell in the same numbers it did in 2007. Personally, I think it will do better, but how much better is really a mystery. January and February will be really telling about the console's future.