Some of these predictions are redicluas, i stated that the 360 prediction was a bit high, though not unreasonable, rocket pig just proved that, 360 should be 15-17 million consoles by this years end, which will make it about 10 million for the year, as long as the 360 MATCHES IT next year, it will be about 25-27 million, and thats matching, his predictions are not far off for the 360

seriously these wii predictions are rediculas

also the people saying the 360 doesnt have a good lineup next year? wow, they dont know anything

The 360 is selling like shit in Europe and Japan, and it's only selling well in NA (they released their biggest game and barely outsold the Wii???)
360 numbers will be more likely 21 million and Wii numbers will depend on how much Nintendo can make.

@Lost tears of Kain,

Rocket pig didn't prove anything. He gave solid reasoning for an argument but its far from proof. I tend to agree that it will break the 15m mark by end of year as my prediction shows but I think a competitive Wii and PS3 are going to hurt it a bit relative to its sales last year and I suspect it will be similar to last year and possibly on the low side of that.

Which BTW, RocketPig was wrong about. Currently the 360 is sitting at 12.74 with the US already reported for the final week of October. Add in the 2.8m it did last year and the result is 15.56m not 16m which is a fair bit of difference considering we are talking about sales around 3m and that difference would be about 15% of that 3m.

In any case, my main point is that while Rocketpig does make good argument its not proof. Its just a good argument, and he has definitely shown himself to be a worthwhile read even if you don't agree with him.

Even you know that as the price drops and the bigger the library the more the console sales, its all consoles that occurs. He gave valid arguements yes, very valid though. I still dont see how you can think it will sell less........ just because competition of ps3 and wii? Then wii sales will decrease as well, ridding of these rediculas predictions.

You really expect it to only sell what it did last year? It should easily cross the 16 million mark, if it doesnt something is wrong. Of course its a arguement, but its more "proof" then ive heard from anyone else.

Wait why should the Wii sales decrease? It was supply constrained. That makes no sense =P

Seriously, think about it. Last holiday the PS3 and Wii were barely out and the 360 was out with supply to spare, and a lot bigger library. Its not a stretch to think that the increased competition of not only a widely available PS3 but a well hyped Wii, both of which have far better software than last year, will impact its sales. If you don't think it will be a big impact thats fine, predict accordingly, but it doesn't stop me from making my prediction. And if I am wrong then I am wrong, but time will tell.

I don't spend all day focusing on the predictions I glance over some numbers, think over the factors and come up with a number. I don't expect to be 100% accurate every time and I certainly don't claim to be.

i think we can expect a VERY good year in '08 for the wii, 360s best year, and a decent year for ps3. i can see wii, 360, ps3 hitting 17-18 mil, 16 mil, and 7 mil by years end. by end of '08 after wiifit, mario kart, ssbb, and probably good 3rd party games coming in i see wii at 40 million. also i could see the wii dropping to $200-220 next fall. not for sales reasons but simply to keep a big enough difference with the 360 so that the public can clearly see that it is still the cheapest system.

360 is gonna have an overall increase in sales due to them finally getting a good lineup (took 'em long enough) this fall and quality '08 games and hopefully a price cut or two that will put them just under $300 for the pro system. 360 should be able to get up to 26 million. although i think after next year it'll start to die and finish under 35 million lifetime cuz the american market will dry up for microsoft and once that happens that system is dead in the water.

ps3 will be trailing in third with the worst sales in the US, poor to decent sales in japan, and decent sales in europe. i think it'll manage to get up to 15 million by the end of '08 with the main system falling to $400 next year and ps3 starting to get a good lineup. after '08 ps3 still won't be selling well but with the 360 dying off it will start to catch up and eventually end somewhere right around 360 between 30-35 million.

so... '07 '08 lifetime
wii 17-18 40 a lot
360 16 26 ~34
ps3 7 15 ~34

Hmm, I think we'll see about 180-200 million consoles sold this gen, and they'll be more even in sales figures than most people expected.
But, like I've said before in another thread; Nintendo will not sell more than PS2, which is currently at about 118.000.000 units sold.
Nintendo themselves said prior to the Wii's release that it was never meant to have the same lifespan as the "hardcore" consoles, which typically get a relief at about 5-6 years.
So if Wii stands alone for 3-4 years, there's just no way that the console market moves fast enough for that to happen.
Granted, more and more PC gamers buy consoles because of the lackluster game library on the PC, but still.

This post is addressed to no one in particular, just my thoughts. I don't see how everyone all of the sudden sees Nintendo as invincible? Perhaps because they did so poorly the last two gens and we were all very surprised at the Wii's initial sucess? Maybe. No one can question that this is the strongest comeback in console history, but if you backtrack and survey the market that has been and that is, some of these predictions are astronomically positive to me!

PS: I've wrote a rant on the console wars last night that I'm thinking of posting in here, does anyone want to read it? (no worries, I'm no fanboy).

All I ever hear them say is that they have more instore for hardcore gamers and the gamers shouldn't get frustrated when they release casual games.  Also, even if they did say that (which would be dumb for sales reasons) I think they would change their tune now that they are dominating the industry.

That's right. It wasn't.

It's gonna be longer.

John Lucas

Yes, but how big is the market out there for Halo. My bets say the entire population would love to play Wii Sports, whilst the big manly Halo 3 appeals only to MALEs (already eliminating 1/2 the population) and HARDCORE GAMERS (eliminating a whole lot more).

What type of person doesn't find Bowling enjoyable??