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Forums - Sales Discussion - So next stop for Ps3 = Wii.Impossible?

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 November 2009

@Carl, read what Peachbuggy wrote



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Carl on 22 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
@Carl, read what Peachbuggy wrote

What are you implying?



                            

Hammertime on 22 November 2009

If the PS3 outsells the Wii LTD I will chop off my cock, cook it and sell it on ebay for 99 pence.



BHR-3 on 22 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
BHR-3 said:
i kinda meant that "i dont even know" meaning that there not as earth shattering as the ps3 line up

none of those wii games will move HW much most of those games u listed are sequels people who wanted smg2 red steel2 zelda already bought a wii a long time ago cant say that about the ps3 games like gt5 ff13, gow3 twisted metal

my predictions are never completely skewed there most always on point


  Moving hardware, that's what NSMB Wii and Wii Vitality sensor, and the like are for

i dont see natal this vitality sensor nsmb doing much for HW i should add that vitality censor to my sig

all im saying is wat the op asks can ps3 be equal or close to = to the wii for total 2010 sales

wii sold 24mil in 2008
ps3 sold 9mil

wii should be around 18-21 end of 2009 down 4m
ps3 should be around 11-13 ends of 2009 up 2-3m

if this trend continues of wii selling less and ps3 selling more than the previous year which i believe will then 2010 will look like this

wii end of 2010 WW 15-18 down 3-4m

ps3 end of 2010 WW 15-16 up 3mill

in term for the op ? it is very possible in fact BHR-3 grantees that the ps3 will sell close or equal to the wii in 2010 and wii all remember that last time i guaranteed something wat happened



                                                             

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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 November 2009
Carl2291 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
@Carl, read what Peachbuggy wrote

What are you implying?

Oh just your comments are moving towards deluded territory



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

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Avinash_Tyagi on 22 November 2009
BHR-3 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
BHR-3 said:
i kinda meant that "i dont even know" meaning that there not as earth shattering as the ps3 line up

none of those wii games will move HW much most of those games u listed are sequels people who wanted smg2 red steel2 zelda already bought a wii a long time ago cant say that about the ps3 games like gt5 ff13, gow3 twisted metal

my predictions are never completely skewed there most always on point


  Moving hardware, that's what NSMB Wii and Wii Vitality sensor, and the like are for

i dont see natal this vitality sensor nsmb doing much for HW i should add that vitality censor to my sig

all im saying is wat the op asks can ps3 be equal or close to = to the wii for total 2010 sales

wii sold 24mil in 2008
ps3 sold 9mil

wii should be around 18-21 end of 2009 down 4m
ps3 should be around 11-13 ends of 2009 up 2-3m

if this trend continues of wii selling less and ps3 selling more than the previous year which i believe will then 2010 will look like this

wii end of 2010 WW 15-18 down 3-4m

ps3 end of 2010 WW 15-16 up 3mill

in term for the op ? it is very possible in fact BHR-3 grantees that the ps3 will sell close or equal to the wii in 2010 and wii all remember that last time i guaranteed something wat happened


  See the flaw in that is you are assuming that the trend will continue, however that is unlikely, as this was a poor year for Wii software wise, next year is much stronger, and the Vitality sensor if it succeeds will only carry Wii sales higher



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Avinash_Tyagi on 22 November 2009
Soriku said:
BHR-3 said:
Soriku said:
BHR-3 said:
i kinda meant that "i dont even know" meaning that there not as earth shattering as the ps3 line up

none of those wii games will move HW much most of those games u listed are sequels people who wanted smg2 red steel2 zelda already bought a wii a long time ago cant say that about the ps3 games like gt5 ff13, gow3 twisted metal

my predictions are never completely skewed there most always on point


lol, the same way the Wii won't increase because of Wii Sports Resort (people who want WSR only own a Wii!), Wii Fit Plus (people who want WFP only own a Wii!), NSMB Wii (all Mario fans already own a Wii!)? Right. And then you ignored every other game besides those.

ur losing me now wfp didnt move any wii HW very little there was a price cut wen that game came out and if u look at the sw #s for wf and wfp ull see wfp sruggled to have the same sales as wf as for wsr same thing there was just a small bump in hw the week it came out then next week it went down close to wat it was b4 the game came out

im talking about huge bumps that last months like wen re5 came out in jp for the ps3 or wen ssbb and kart came out for the wii i belive ps3 2010 line up will give the ps3 these huge bumps next year i dont see those wii games u listed doing the same for wii HW

as for nsmb we havent even seen its hw bump so u cant say a thing bout it the hds had a 80k ww bump for mw2 i dont see the wii having a 80k bump this week it doesnt matter i know that mw2 on the ps3 only will have higher sales than nsmb b4 the years up considering the userbase size thats insane


Huh? The week WFP came out in America the Wii increased by 20k+, up from the week WFP released in Japan and the price cut. It DID increase HW. And you can bet that Wii sales are increasing not just because of holiday/price cut factors but because of WFP as well.

MW2 increased PS3/360 HW despite other shooters and MW1, DQ IX boosted DS HW even though DQ remakes/spinoffs came out, etc. Thinking NSMB won't raise HW is ridiculous when 2D Marios sell much more than 3D Mario.

What makes you think games like Zelda can't boost Wii HW for a long time? TP is on the Wii, but that's a GC port. That's nothing compared to a brand new exclusive Zelda.

As for the last part, according to ioi the Wii surpassed 300k in America which means Wii HW boosted 60k+. Adding EU and JP boosts (in Japan it sold 700k, EU sold 400k) it'll easily surpass 80k.

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=5954


  Its not out in Japan yet, that is what's expected to sell first week in japan



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Khuutra on 22 November 2009
BHR-3 said:

i dont see natal this vitality sensor nsmb doing much for HW i should add that vitality censor to my sig

all im saying is wat the op asks can ps3 be equal or close to = to the wii for total 2010 sales

wii sold 24mil in 2008
ps3 sold 9mil

wii should be around 18-21 end of 2009 down 4m
ps3 should be around 11-13 ends of 2009 up 2-3m

if this trend continues of wii selling less and ps3 selling more than the previous year which i believe will then 2010 will look like this

wii end of 2010 WW 15-18 down 3-4m

ps3 end of 2010 WW 15-16 up 3mill

in term for the op ? it is very possible in fact BHR-3 grantees that the ps3 will sell close or equal to the wii in 2010 and wii all remember that last time i guaranteed something wat happened

Oh man can we make a bet please

Oh please, pretty please



Zucas on 22 November 2009

Well it isn't impossible haha. Nothing is impossible as long as the ideas don't contradict each other. Wii sellling less than PS3 isn't a logical contradiction so no biggie.


Well the OT gives a very narrow outlook of 2010. 2010 is filled with new things and big games on all sides. Of course Natal, Sony Motion controllers, and Wii's vitality sensor are going to be the big "hardware" releases. Not to mention software such as Halo Reach, Fable 3, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid: Other M, Final Fantasy XIII... etc. Actually the big software almost seems to balance everything off... in a very primitive way.

I think what we can be very sure of is that there probably won't be any price drops. Now I say this lightly because M$ always has the capability to drop price at whim but for Nintendo and Sony they are stuck at that price for 2010. Now factors we have to recognize are ones that have nothing to do with anything in 2010. First, how will PS3 come off of the price drop. As I've stated, PS3 could have peaked before the holiday season which means sub par holiday increases and a sub par early 2010. Or it could have a sizable holiday season with a strong start in Q1. I think all of that will be decided SEPARATE of any software releasing. Wii is the same way. It'll have a big holiday season but it might come down harder than usual come early 2010. Or it could keep coasting along with that very mass market price. Deciding factor will probably be Europe as Japan won't make much of a difference and America is not going to be won by PS3 over Wii... not with a strong 360 in the territory.

Really it is possible for the Wii to be overtaken by PS3... but it isn't probable. PS3 would have to keep selling at certain levels in slow times of the year which it has never proven to be able to do, will still be the highest priced console out there which hurts in those slow times, and really hasn't asserted itself as the dominating brand in any region. It's possible that certain software releases such as GT5 and God of War 3 could help that but once again there is no solid confirmation. Not to mention for all of this to even give PS3 a chance to outsell the Wii, Wii would once again have to start showing extreme signs of slowing... which isn't all that impossible or improbable. But the point is there are a lot of factors that have to work in PS3's favor and a lot that have to work against Wii... and even 360... not to mention all their big software to mean almost nothing throughout the year.

So I guess the best way to look at this is through Ockham's Razor... two ideas but which makes the least amount of assumptions. But we'll see how it plays out.



BHR-3 on 22 November 2009
Avinash_Tyagi said:
BHR-3 said:
Avinash_Tyagi said:
BHR-3 said:
i kinda meant that "i dont even know" meaning that there not as earth shattering as the ps3 line up

none of those wii games will move HW much most of those games u listed are sequels people who wanted smg2 red steel2 zelda already bought a wii a long time ago cant say that about the ps3 games like gt5 ff13, gow3 twisted metal

my predictions are never completely skewed there most always on point


  Moving hardware, that's what NSMB Wii and Wii Vitality sensor, and the like are for

i dont see natal this vitality sensor nsmb doing much for HW i should add that vitality censor to my sig

all im saying is wat the op asks can ps3 be equal or close to = to the wii for total 2010 sales

wii sold 24mil in 2008
ps3 sold 9mil

wii should be around 18-21 end of 2009 down 4m
ps3 should be around 11-13 ends of 2009 up 2-3m

if this trend continues of wii selling less and ps3 selling more than the previous year which i believe will then 2010 will look like this

wii end of 2010 WW 15-18 down 3-4m

ps3 end of 2010 WW 15-16 up 3mill

in term for the op ? it is very possible in fact BHR-3 grantees that the ps3 will sell close or equal to the wii in 2010 and wii all remember that last time i guaranteed something wat happened


  See the flaw in that is you are assuming that the trend will continue, however that is unlikely, as this was a poor year for Wii software wise, next year is much stronger, and the Vitality sensor if it succeeds will only carry Wii sales higher

i never assume nothing in every prediction i make public i provide tips i take past data and come to a hypothesis based on it, past data alone is good enough data

ps2 ww yearly sales also went down every year after it had a high peak year it only went up again wen gt4 came i dont think none of those wii games have the hw moving power of gt4 so i can safely say wii sales will be lower again in 2010 than in 2009

ps3 sales should be higher since gt4 was able to raise ps2 sales back in the day after years of steady decline gt5 should do the same for the ps3 raise its sales higher than previous years



                                                             

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