Well it isn't impossible haha. Nothing is impossible as long as the ideas don't contradict each other. Wii sellling less than PS3 isn't a logical contradiction so no biggie.
Well the OT gives a very narrow outlook of 2010. 2010 is filled with new things and big games on all sides. Of course Natal, Sony Motion controllers, and Wii's vitality sensor are going to be the big "hardware" releases. Not to mention software such as Halo Reach, Fable 3, Gran Turismo 5, God of War 3, Super Mario Galaxy 2, Metroid: Other M, Final Fantasy XIII... etc. Actually the big software almost seems to balance everything off... in a very primitive way.
I think what we can be very sure of is that there probably won't be any price drops. Now I say this lightly because M$ always has the capability to drop price at whim but for Nintendo and Sony they are stuck at that price for 2010. Now factors we have to recognize are ones that have nothing to do with anything in 2010. First, how will PS3 come off of the price drop. As I've stated, PS3 could have peaked before the holiday season which means sub par holiday increases and a sub par early 2010. Or it could have a sizable holiday season with a strong start in Q1. I think all of that will be decided SEPARATE of any software releasing. Wii is the same way. It'll have a big holiday season but it might come down harder than usual come early 2010. Or it could keep coasting along with that very mass market price. Deciding factor will probably be Europe as Japan won't make much of a difference and America is not going to be won by PS3 over Wii... not with a strong 360 in the territory.
Really it is possible for the Wii to be overtaken by PS3... but it isn't probable. PS3 would have to keep selling at certain levels in slow times of the year which it has never proven to be able to do, will still be the highest priced console out there which hurts in those slow times, and really hasn't asserted itself as the dominating brand in any region. It's possible that certain software releases such as GT5 and God of War 3 could help that but once again there is no solid confirmation. Not to mention for all of this to even give PS3 a chance to outsell the Wii, Wii would once again have to start showing extreme signs of slowing... which isn't all that impossible or improbable. But the point is there are a lot of factors that have to work in PS3's favor and a lot that have to work against Wii... and even 360... not to mention all their big software to mean almost nothing throughout the year.
So I guess the best way to look at this is through Ockham's Razor... two ideas but which makes the least amount of assumptions. But we'll see how it plays out.
