Austin...

Marketing is to teach consumers about a product and the job it does, the point is to build energy around the product to generate sales.

Simply put Zelda is a known IP on a new platform, Gamer X plays Nintendo games goes to Gamer Y who doesn’t play games or hasn’t played games since SNES or PSX and emphasizes the release of Zelda with new controls. Gamer Y has no reason to want to get this Zelda game with motion controls.

My point is that Mario Galaxy, Zelda did not pull in new customers like your saying.

Wii Sports however is a new IP and comes with Wii; unless your willing to look history in the face and spit at it then you would know that Wii Sports is still bundled with Wii’s for no other reason that Nintendo understands that their consumers want Wii Sports as it shows what the Wii is about, it is what consumers were marketed. I’ll take a step back.

Marketing is making a promise of the content being marketed the purpose is to create energy around the product to generate sales. Nintendo made many promises with the Wii and one of the was Wii Sports, not the Wiimote but WiiSports, the content it provided was what a large group wanted and that’s what they got when they bought the Wii. However Nintendo failed to deliver the content steadily ^_^ as until the release of WiiSports Resort Wii sales were declining.
It’s not so complicated as the psychology of human relation and viral marketing, it’s simply living up to a promise and how many people wanted what was promised – That’s the risk Nintendo took and it paid off.

I think 3rd parties will play a part too and whereas the Sony wand games will be marketed at an install base of 0, games for the Wii will be marketed at an install base of 55m+ probably 65m+. See the difference? 3rd parties do not have limitless supplies of money and will have no ideas about how the sales of wands or NATAL are going to go. Bear in mind that the Wii has wii motes right out of the box, whereas consumers will have to pay extra for wands or NATALs. We have no idea how much they will cost or how many will be adopted. So do 3rd parties, with their limited amount of money develop loads of different SKUs or do they gamble and develop games for NATAL or wands in the hope there is a large adoption of these products? The third option is to only release Wii motion games. I personally think this is the option most companies will go for but with maybe some overlap with the Sony wand, due to its similarities with the Wii mote. I honestly think that given the tried and tested install base which will be 60m+ against an install base of 0, any publisher with a brain will go to the highest installed base. There is no explaining some companies' business decisions though, so in some cases i may be wrong.

So in conclusion i say both the Wand and NATAL will not be a significant threat to the Wii. 

Going off media and industry response, I'd say Natal is easily the bigger threat. Swand's already been (rightfully) pigeonholed as derivative by most and the fact that it's launching in less than 6 months and it's biggest game is a warmed over, awkward RE5 conversion speaks volumes. It's going to crash and burn.

Media shifts based on hype and hype can be controlled and regulated.

Industry is a wide word and the industry could have it's agenda yes.

But dual shock took off so why not PSmote?

XD

The Dual Shock was on the market leading console with 90% of 3rd party support exclusive.  PSmote has a far different road ahead of it.

And it's not just media, it's the industry itself.  You have people like Kojima (Metal Gear), Nagoshi (Yakuza) and Inafune (Dead Rising) singing Natal's praises, while there's basically silence on the Swand which is releasing in March.  That's telling...

Devs may well sing a device's praises but in reality the suits in the company may well be singing a very different tune. I suspect a lot of publishers are being run by accountants in these harsh times and i think they will see developing games for these input devices with an install base as 0 being a bit of a risk.

I'd say this applies doubly to the PSmote though.  Natal's at least being framed around what's basically a platform relaunch from everything we've heard, PSmote's being positioned as superfluous and it's support so far (RE5 warmed over and some downloadables, talk of crusty Wii ports) reflects that.

Hard to say, really. On the one hand you could say it will work in favour of the Wand, given its similarities to the Wii mote. On the other hand your point is relevant too. I guess time will tell.

Okay, I'm not going to keep saying this because it is getting repetitive, when a new idea is launched, it needs a group of early adopters to really go with it.

The nintendo fan was the early adopter. The same nintendo fan that played gamecube, nes, snes, n64. They were the early adopter.

Who will be the early adopter for NATAL.  Sony will get that early adopter.  Microsoft won't.

I honestly think that it still's being a rip-off that's gonna flop hard.

But who knows, I'm here to test and buy it if it deserves my money.