I don't know if anyone's said this yet, but the people who should be most excited about the Sony wand is the 3rd party Wii developers. All of those games have a second chance at life on the PS3 with (hopefully) improved graphics. It's a shame that quality 3rd party titles on the Wii get virtually ignored.

Natal and Sony Wand will probably fail because the software will be made for the "Casuals". Nintendo didn't had this mentality when making the Wii, they wanted to attract new, lapsed and core gamers, EVERYONE.
If they had failed to attract core gamers or lose them in this years, that's a different story (and third parties are more likely to blame, not Nintendo).


"The core gamer has a tremendous influence at launch time and has a tremendous influence on getting the word out for new titles."


I think Reggie or the woman at E3 (forgot her name, Cammie I think) said something similar years ago in an interview. But ultimately, if titles like Wii Music didn't sell as well was not because Core gamers didn't like it, but that the game was Not so good. Even new gamers who tried it didn't like it at all.

I don't see how the core gamers will get behind Sony's motion controls when many of them didn't get behind nintendos.. especially when you look at the launch titles that Sony is planning to release that support the wand.

I honestly think that the biggest threat to Sony is Sony.

The biggest threat to Nintendo is the death of Miyamoto.

Ps: Sony's wand is going to fail, just like Natal. Wiimotion+ would normally be a failure as well, but you know... Wii sports resort =/ 

And lets not forget zelda:wii

What first party game does Sony have that can sell over 10 million? 5 million? 3million? I don't think you want to use Sony's wand for GT5 and GOW3.

Has anyone else noticed how (pretty much) every major publisher has tried to clone a Guitar Hero/Rockband, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Brain Training, Nintendogs, or any other unconventional game and rarely ever are as successful as the original?

In my mind, the reason for this is that the follow-up products tend to be created because a company saw the success of the original game and still hasn't seen the reason why it needed to exist. In general, this means that the company has a blind-spot (or a dead-ear) to what the current customers wanted, and it means that their efforts to improve the product tend to be focused on features or values that are unimportant to capturing these customers.

Until we see the software that Microsoft and Sony are going to produce I would be really skeptical of them understanding a market that they have ignored for so long ...

^Heh, you just touched on what Malstrom noted in his Birdman fallacy paper

 Rockband came after and because of GH success. Thus if all Sony and Mircosoft simply trying to copy the Wii then it will not be a huge success but if like Rockband they add on to what already been proven to be successful  then both has a possiblity of being a huge success. So far it's seems both of them are attempting to go step farther than the wii-mote.

 For example I see Natal can take something like Wii fit to another level including dancing leasons. Imagine a Natal dancing game where you actually perform the moves instead of stepping on a pad.

  Difference though is Rock band may have had similar roots to GH, but it made what was previously a solo experience into a group/social experience, NATAL and the Sony wand haven't shown anything that creates an experience that people want that the Wii isn't giving

Like I wrote  Rockband took GH success and added to the experience.

I think Nintendo will just bundle in the wii motionplus with a lot of its games. Maybe give you an option of buying it with the bundle.