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Forums - Website Topics - Whoa, did the numbers just change a bunch?

Zucas on 25 October 2007

Well if they are shipping 25-30k a week isn't it obvious it's a sellout if htey are selling 20-25k a week. I mean I don't understand what you are getting out here.

Numbers don't lie. Numbers state that wii is pretty much sold out in Japan. Being able to walk in a store and get one doesn't even help the arguement at all. Becuase if you walk in the store early on and buy a Wii and they are plentiful that doesn't suggest that its not a sellout. What suggest a sellout is if at the end of that week are the sales of the console pretty much about the same as the shipments.



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TWRoO on 25 October 2007
erikers said:
TWRoO said:
DKII put what i was about to put...

first....souixan....Sony changed their financial statements from "shipped" to "sold", there is no mention of consumers....they meant that they now give sold to retail instead of just shipped around the world....Nintendo and Microsoft both use the term sold meaning to retail (thoug they use the word shipped to mean to retail as well) also they wouldn't be allowed to put consumer figures in the statement because they have to be accurate, and there are no accurate consumer sales numbers.

As for Wii shipments versus sales.....the numbers on the front page now are about 300k above the shipment number, but they are also 3 weeks later. Using the weekly data there have been nearly 750k Wii sales in the last 3 weeks, so the date when the financials count till the Wii consumer sales were well below the shipment/retail sales....about 450k, which is a good amount for WW retail stock (there was a similar inventory ...about 400-500k... 6 months ago)

Wii shipments as of 30th September --- 13.17 million
Wii sales as of 1st October (VGC) --- 12.74 million
so that 430k of unsold Wiis

So you think there's only 430k unsold wii's in the world at that time do you? You realize it's not sold out in japan anymore right? Do you really think there's wii's in tons of stores in japan but that number on shelves is less than 430k? Combined with whatever small amount of units exist in the US and the Wii is not sold out in every single country it's in.

Let's say there's 230k to cover Japan. Do you think in every store in the rest of the world there's only 200k units in store shelves that haven't been bought?

Plus the numbers you posted at the bottom are his newly "altered" numbers.  The truth is the Wii was at about 12.74 TODAY before he moved the numbers up 700k. 


Yes, purely because it is a similar number to what a number of people here worked out 6 months ago, and there were reports then of Japanese units being in stock.

4.93 million PS3s as of 1st October.
5.59 million total retail sales.....that's 660k in stock WW



erikers on 25 October 2007
Zucas said:
Well if they are shipping 25-30k a week isn't it obvious it's a sellout if htey are selling 20-25k a week. I mean I don't understand what you are getting out here.

Numbers don't lie. Numbers state that wii is pretty much sold out in Japan. Being able to walk in a store and get one doesn't even help the arguement at all. Becuase if you walk in the store early on and buy a Wii and they are plentiful that doesn't suggest that its not a sellout. What suggest a sellout is if at the end of that week are the sales of the console pretty much about the same as the shipments.

 

http://kotaku.com/gaming/japan-halo-3-launch/xbox-360-would-you-like-a-wii-with-that-304266.php

 "By the way, Wii was in great supply wherever we went. At the duty free version of Sofmap, we must have seen some two dozen stacked up behind the counter. Now only if they could accomplish the same feat in America."

http://kotaku.com/gaming/what-about-elsewhere%3F/japanese-wii-supply-normalizing-284101.php

The point is you know they are shipping more than 30k a week to japan.  That's just what it's selling there because it's a slow period.  There are wii's in many stores.  The only point this has is that Wii's shipped numbers no longer very closely match their consumer sold numbers anymore.  You don't assume everything they ship has been sold anymore.   

Completed XBLA: 16 / 32
Completed Retail: 17 / 64
GS Completion %: 82.63%
 
dschumm on 25 October 2007
Dodece said:
I think a million unit shift is far too excessive if that is the case. The reality is this sites numbers are relatively close to other reputable sources. The numbers are adjusted periodically to be in linene with these sources. I think these reports should be given a few days for analysis. Before any snap judgments should be made. I think in the end retracting sales hurts credibility far more then under counting a console.

I am not sure how Nintendo is accounting for sales. Honestly I haven't actually been able to log into this site most of the day. Chances are I will not even get this to post before error 404 gives me the shaft again. However I will say this do not assume the Wii is sold out. I can get in my car right now, and go to a dozen shops that have it in stock. Yes Ohio seems to have plenty of Wiis to spare. I am sorry guys in New Jersey or in Philadelphia, but thats the way it is.

I think if a number can be revised by a million at the drop of a hat. Then the number was pretty worthless to begin with, and can never be worth anything ever again.

 Feel free to leave any time



Final* Word on Game Delays:

The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.

Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.

Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.

*naznatips is exempt

DKII on 25 October 2007

Once the retail stock is built up tho it's not like they're going to keep shipping 100k Wii's if the stores are only selling 30k, they're not channel-stuffing like MS and Sony do. They'll ship whatever they need to in order to replenish stock, hold on to the rest for the holidays and divert other manufacturing to NA.



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The_vagabond7 on 25 October 2007

after reading the thread, seeing the arguments between the defenders and the detractors I have to say I trust the numbers now. Anecdotal evidence of wii being available doesn't trump cold hard numbers.

Thanks for addressing the concerns.



You can find me on facebook as Markus Van Rijn, if you friend me just mention you're from VGchartz and who you are here.

Sqrl on 26 October 2007

@TWroo,

Am I mistaken or is that Vogon poetry in your signature?
To Each Man, Responsibility
TWRoO on 26 October 2007

You are not mistaken no.....vizunary also noticed it



Kasz216 on 26 October 2007
erikers said:
TheSource said:
erikers its likely a fairly uniform percentage based error. so if x sells more than y the actual number of units x is off will be greater than the number of units y is off

 Maybe, I'd still like to hear why Pal regions are/never have been tracked accurately by him.  You will remember all the times he decreased 360's numbers, perhaps by as much as 1 million at the beginning of the year.  Perhaps he should ask nintendo how they get their information since they got their numbers from somewhere ;)

 Anyways, it's pretty hard to be off by 700k in one region in a 3 month period.  


I'd guess it'd be because of less sources in the US and Japan and the much bigger difference in consumer paterns.

The cultures and buying habits of England, Spain and Poland are far more different then the buying paterns of Ohio, California and Maine. 



Kasz216 on 26 October 2007