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Forums - Website Topics - Whoa, did the numbers just change a bunch?

TWRoO on 25 October 2007
erikers said:
TheSource said:
erikers its likely a fairly uniform percentage based error. so if x sells more than y the actual number of units x is off will be greater than the number of units y is off

 Maybe, I'd still like to hear why Pal regions are/never have been tracked accurately by him.  You will remember all the times he decreased 360's numbers, perhaps by as much as 1 million at the beginning of the year.  Perhaps he should ask nintendo how they get their information since they got their numbers from somewhere ;)

 Anyways, it's pretty hard to be off by 700k in one region in a 3 month period.  


What are you on about.....Nintendo can track the exact number of Wiis it sells to Eu retailers...but they do not track consumer sales at all.

PAL regions are hard to track because...
1) there is a maze of countries all with different chain stores
2) independant stores will be harder to account for than USA (i doubt ioi tracks any sales of independant stores, but with Eu different countries will have totally different percentages of people buying from independant unlike USA where the one country will show generally similar interest across the whole)
3) there is no good referance point to check the sales periodically like with NPD/MC



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souixan on 25 October 2007
TWRoO said:
DKII put what i was about to put...

first....souixan....Sony changed their financial statements from "shipped" to "sold", there is no mention of consumers....they meant that they now give sold to retail instead of just shipped around the world....Nintendo and Microsoft both use the term sold meaning to retail (thoug they use the word shipped to mean to retail as well) also they wouldn't be allowed to put consumer figures in the statement because they have to be accurate, and there are no accurate consumer sales numbers.

As for Wii shipments versus sales.....the numbers on the front page now are about 300k above the shipment number, but they are also 3 weeks later. Using the weekly data there have been nearly 750k Wii sales in the last 3 weeks, so the date when the financials count till the Wii consumer sales were well below the shipment/retail sales....about 450k, which is a good amount for WW retail stock (there was a similar inventory ...about 400-500k... 6 months ago)

Wii shipments as of 30th September --- 13.17 million
Wii sales as of 1st October (VGC) --- 12.74 million
so that 430k of unsold Wiis

Actually I recall sony as reporting "shipped to retail" so it'd be the same thing no change.

I don't get why accurate numbers are really all that difficult, with computers these days, they can easily review how many of a specific UPC had been sold per item, easily report it to the stores main facility and EASILY report that to the manufacturer. It's not tough but I don't think they do that. I mean how can you tell me it's impossible to keep track of 13,000,000 systems when they can keep track of billions of people with a very small margin of error, I don't buy it for a second.

 Regardless of the fact, Wii has systematically outsold PS3 and 360 worldwide even if 360 had a boost from the Halo 3 weeks it still got beaten world wide to my knowledge. Is it that big a difference, who can say for sure but I don't think of it as even close to impossible in fact my guess would put the difference of the Wii and 360 at a slightly bigger number.



Non Sequor on 25 October 2007

If ioi uses his sources to track the number of units sitting on shelves he can actually get a more accurate estimate of sell through by subtracting that from the, presumably exact, shipped numbers.



"Ho! Haha! Guard! Turn! Parry! Dodge! Spin! Ha! Thrust!" -- Daffy Duck
Zucas on 25 October 2007
erikers said:
I hope ioi realizes even though nintendo says they've sold 13.4 million or whatever the total was, the system is no longer sold out in every place in the world. It's readily available in Japan for example, where it's been doing 20-30k for weeks on top of all the reports of people there who see them in stores all the time now.

If nintendo's financial report totals were from shipped consoles then haven't sold the number they stated yet in terms of units in consumers hands.

I'm curious if Nintendo had said they sold 18 million if ioi would just change it to that because they said so. Is he really admitting he was off by a whole 700-800k consoles while only being off by 100-200k for 360/PS3?

 About it being readily available in Japan that is actually a false statement.  AS of the end of September 2007 3.67 million Wiis were shipped to Japan.  But you check the data here it states 3.61 million were sold.  I mean 60k leftover is pretty indicitave of a sellout especially with some of that probably never even making it to retail stores yet.  

 

Fact of the matter is, Wii shipments were decreased in Japan last quarter.  Actually nintendo in general last quarter decreased shipments in Japan and allocated most of it to Europe.  Check out DS hardware sales and you'll see what I mean.

But Wii is sold out in Japan and it's apparent.  Sales and shipment comparisons show this.  I had actually stated numerous times before that I though japan sales were down because allocations to there were down.  I wasn't trying to imply a sellout as you reduce shipments then of course sales will fall a percentage of the way down as well.  I was half right at least.  



erikers on 25 October 2007
TWRoO said:
erikers said:
TheSource said:
erikers its likely a fairly uniform percentage based error. so if x sells more than y the actual number of units x is off will be greater than the number of units y is off

Maybe, I'd still like to hear why Pal regions are/never have been tracked accurately by him. You will remember all the times he decreased 360's numbers, perhaps by as much as 1 million at the beginning of the year. Perhaps he should ask nintendo how they get their information since they got their numbers from somewhere ;)

Anyways, it's pretty hard to be off by 700k in one region in a 3 month period.


What are you on about.....Nintendo can track the exact number of Wiis it sells to Eu retailers...but they do not track consumer sales at all.

PAL regions are hard to track because...
1) there is a maze of countries all with different chain stores
2) independant stores will be harder to account for than USA (i doubt ioi tracks any sales of independant stores, but with Eu different countries will have totally different percentages of people buying from independant unlike USA where the one country will show generally similar interest across the whole)
3) there is no good referance point to check the sales periodically like with NPD/MC


 The part you underlined was a joke by the way.  Note the smiley face. 



Completed XBLA: 16 / 32
Completed Retail: 17 / 64
GS Completion %: 82.63%
 
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Lost tears of Kain on 25 October 2007

i dont mind if hes wrong, but he was almost wrong by .7 M consoles? thats HUGE, thats 7 weeks suddenly just popped up for the wii



                 With regard to Call of Duty 4 having an ultra short single player campaign, I guess it may well have been due to the size limitations of DVD on the XBox 360, one of various limitations multi-platform game designers will have to take into consideration-Mike B   

Proud supporter of all 3 console companys

Proud owner of 360wii and DS/psp              

Game trailers-Halo 3 only dissapointed the people who wanted to be dissapointed.

Bet with Harvey Birdman that Lost Odyssey will sell more then Blue dragon did.
souixan on 25 October 2007
erikers said:
TWRoO said:
DKII put what i was about to put...

first....souixan....Sony changed their financial statements from "shipped" to "sold", there is no mention of consumers....they meant that they now give sold to retail instead of just shipped around the world....Nintendo and Microsoft both use the term sold meaning to retail (thoug they use the word shipped to mean to retail as well) also they wouldn't be allowed to put consumer figures in the statement because they have to be accurate, and there are no accurate consumer sales numbers.

As for Wii shipments versus sales.....the numbers on the front page now are about 300k above the shipment number, but they are also 3 weeks later. Using the weekly data there have been nearly 750k Wii sales in the last 3 weeks, so the date when the financials count till the Wii consumer sales were well below the shipment/retail sales....about 450k, which is a good amount for WW retail stock (there was a similar inventory ...about 400-500k... 6 months ago)

Wii shipments as of 30th September --- 13.17 million
Wii sales as of 1st October (VGC) --- 12.74 million
so that 430k of unsold Wiis

So you think there's only 430k unsold wii's in the world at that time do you? You realize it's not sold out in japan anymore right? Do you really think there's wii's in tons of stores in japan but that number on shelves is less than 430k? Combined with whatever small amount of units exist in the US and the Wii is not sold out in every single country it's in.

Let's say there's 230k to cover Japan. Do you think in every store in the rest of the world there's only 200k units in store shelves that haven't been bought?

Plus the numbers you posted at the bottom are his newly "altered" numbers. The truth is the Wii was at about 12.74 TODAY before he moved the numbers up 700k.


 My friend in Japan claims she looks for it often and can usually NOT find a nintendo wii even today in Japan. In fact I have 4 other friends I talk to multiple times weekly still hunting for one. It's not totally sold out no, but it's not even close to readily available.



dschumm on 25 October 2007

What is everyone so upset about. I think they need to take a closer look at where the numbers come from. The numbers are constantly updated as new information comes about. Many people have suggested that there is about a month's supply of Wii sitting out there so as mentioned earlier the new number is closer to the statement from Nintendo that is months old data.

And yes believe it or not there are lots of countries in the others category, some may be hard to track and the only way account for that sometimes is through company statements.

The companies are still talking about shipped to retailers but they are no longer 5 million+ off like MS was reporting last year. I would like to think that in some small way this site is helping to keep them a little more honest.



Final* Word on Game Delays:

The game will not be any better or include more content then planned. Any commnets that say so are just PR hogwash to make you feel better for having to wait.

Delays are due to lack of proper resources, skill, or adequate planning by the developer.

Do be thankful that they have enough respect for you to delay the game and maintain its intended level of quality.

*naznatips is exempt

erikers on 25 October 2007
Zucas said:
erikers said:
I hope ioi realizes even though nintendo says they've sold 13.4 million or whatever the total was, the system is no longer sold out in every place in the world. It's readily available in Japan for example, where it's been doing 20-30k for weeks on top of all the reports of people there who see them in stores all the time now.

If nintendo's financial report totals were from shipped consoles then haven't sold the number they stated yet in terms of units in consumers hands.

I'm curious if Nintendo had said they sold 18 million if ioi would just change it to that because they said so. Is he really admitting he was off by a whole 700-800k consoles while only being off by 100-200k for 360/PS3?

About it being readily available in Japan that is actually a false statement. AS of the end of September 2007 3.67 million Wiis were shipped to Japan. But you check the data here it states 3.61 million were sold. I mean 60k leftover is pretty indicitave of a sellout especially with some of that probably never even making it to retail stores yet.

 

Fact of the matter is, Wii shipments were decreased in Japan last quarter. Actually nintendo in general last quarter decreased shipments in Japan and allocated most of it to Europe. Check out DS hardware sales and you'll see what I mean.

But Wii is sold out in Japan and it's apparent. Sales and shipment comparisons show this. I had actually stated numerous times before that I though japan sales were down because allocations to there were down. I wasn't trying to imply a sellout as you reduce shipments then of course sales will fall a percentage of the way down as well. I was half right at least.


Yes because nintendo is only shipping 25-30k a week to japan right. Nevermind the reports that it's finally easy to walk into a store there and get one. They allocated some of japans consoles to other countries because it's still actually sold out in those countries. It's not in japan.

http://kotaku.com/gaming/japan-halo-3-launch/xbox-360-would-you-like-a-wii-with-that-304266.php

 "By the way, Wii was in great supply wherever we went. At the duty free version of Sofmap, we must have seen some two dozen stacked up behind the counter. Now only if they could accomplish the same feat in America."

Completed XBLA: 16 / 32
Completed Retail: 17 / 64
GS Completion %: 82.63%
 
Non Sequor on 25 October 2007
souixan said:
erikers said:
TWRoO said:
DKII put what i was about to put...

first....souixan....Sony changed their financial statements from "shipped" to "sold", there is no mention of consumers....they meant that they now give sold to retail instead of just shipped around the world....Nintendo and Microsoft both use the term sold meaning to retail (thoug they use the word shipped to mean to retail as well) also they wouldn't be allowed to put consumer figures in the statement because they have to be accurate, and there are no accurate consumer sales numbers.

As for Wii shipments versus sales.....the numbers on the front page now are about 300k above the shipment number, but they are also 3 weeks later. Using the weekly data there have been nearly 750k Wii sales in the last 3 weeks, so the date when the financials count till the Wii consumer sales were well below the shipment/retail sales....about 450k, which is a good amount for WW retail stock (there was a similar inventory ...about 400-500k... 6 months ago)

Wii shipments as of 30th September --- 13.17 million
Wii sales as of 1st October (VGC) --- 12.74 million
so that 430k of unsold Wiis

So you think there's only 430k unsold wii's in the world at that time do you? You realize it's not sold out in japan anymore right? Do you really think there's wii's in tons of stores in japan but that number on shelves is less than 430k? Combined with whatever small amount of units exist in the US and the Wii is not sold out in every single country it's in.

Let's say there's 230k to cover Japan. Do you think in every store in the rest of the world there's only 200k units in store shelves that haven't been bought?

Plus the numbers you posted at the bottom are his newly "altered" numbers. The truth is the Wii was at about 12.74 TODAY before he moved the numbers up 700k.


My friend in Japan claims she looks for it often and can usually NOT find a nintendo wii even today in Japan. In fact I have 4 other friends I talk to multiple times weekly still hunting for one. It's not totally sold out no, but it's not even close to readily available.


 That may mean that Nintendo has cut Japan's supply during the slow period to focus on America and others where they don't have the dominance they have in Japan.



"Ho! Haha! Guard! Turn! Parry! Dodge! Spin! Ha! Thrust!" -- Daffy Duck