Woah I don't think so.. Any reason why you think it'll sell that high?

It is currently at ~ 18 million. It should sell around 3 million more this year, making the total sales for 2009 ~ 8 million.

If you look at Mario Kart Wii's sales, it has been pretty directly linked to the Wii's sales. When the Wii is high, Mario Kart Wii is high. When the Wii is low, Mario Kart Wii is low.

I don't think MKWii will manage to sell 8 million next year. My prediction for 2009 was

150K/week for the first 6 months = 4 million

100K/week for the next 3 months = 1.3 million

3.5 million in the holiday quarter. = 3.5 million

Total for 2009 = 8.5-9 million.

Considering that the Wii sold as much less than I believed it will, it actually sort of did that. But the point isn't to brag about my prediction.

It's going to start out lower in 2010. A fairer prediction would be

90K/week for the first 6 months = 2.3 million

75K/week for the next 3 months = 1 million

1.5-2 million for the holiday quarter = 1.75 million

Total = 5 million.

That seems rather plausible to me. And if the price drops, it could outdo that. Anyway, this leaves it at no less than 26 million. From there on in, it depends a bit on the life of the Wii, and a few other factors I cannot predict well.

My 30-35 million estimate is actually rather old (it must be around a year old now), and 28-33 million would probably be better today.

28-33,000,000 or 35,000,000 really would be a phenominal achievement so i dont see the point in discussing either as even if it stopped selling today it would have blown anything else away on any of the other machines

I love the answer Pachter gave to Keighley's question starting at 48:12 and ending at 49:08.

Even with the Wii slowing down to PS2 levels, extreme detractors want to treat it like it's a complete failure and Nintendo is doomed. I'm glad he called that out in his answer. Nintendo really is a victim of its own success.

I only watched part 4 and that part had me laughing. From the ten minutes I saw, Pachter was actually my favourite.

The 'hardcore' guy sat next to Pachter went from orgasmic when talking MW2 to gritting his teeth and clenching his fists when Pachter was telling them Nintendo ISN'T doomed. When Pachter says "they're killing it, they're killing it", hardcore guy looks like he's going to smack Pachter in the mouth.

I corrected my messege

Ooops crap. I meant 60 Million in December not November.

10 million by the end of the year

i lol at game sages...
they should stop taking WRPGs too seriously.

I think this game is now going to better than I thought, its currently number 6 in the amazon sales charts, So there is quite a bit of interest. It still wont sell as well as MW2 though but it should reach 5 million.