puffy said:
Woah I don't think so.. Any reason why you think it'll sell that high?
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It is currently at ~ 18 million. It should sell around 3 million more this year, making the total sales for 2009 ~ 8 million.
If you look at Mario Kart Wii's sales, it has been pretty directly linked to the Wii's sales. When the Wii is high, Mario Kart Wii is high. When the Wii is low, Mario Kart Wii is low.
I don't think MKWii will manage to sell 8 million next year. My prediction for 2009 was
150K/week for the first 6 months = 4 million
100K/week for the next 3 months = 1.3 million
3.5 million in the holiday quarter. = 3.5 million
Total for 2009 = 8.5-9 million.
Considering that the Wii sold as much less than I believed it will, it actually sort of did that. But the point isn't to brag about my prediction.
It's going to start out lower in 2010. A fairer prediction would be
90K/week for the first 6 months = 2.3 million
75K/week for the next 3 months = 1 million
1.5-2 million for the holiday quarter = 1.75 million
Total = 5 million.
That seems rather plausible to me. And if the price drops, it could outdo that. Anyway, this leaves it at no less than 26 million. From there on in, it depends a bit on the life of the Wii, and a few other factors I cannot predict well.
My 30-35 million estimate is actually rather old (it must be around a year old now), and 28-33 million would probably be better today.
