Your amazing analysis of MS's business plan is astounding.

Hey even some of the studios have talked smack about the NATAL technology saying that it is probably imprecise...so they aren't exactly jumping on the bandwagon.

I believe you are referring to the Blizzard employee's comments on Natal, of which it was not really negative towards Natal.  Now name another studio please.  I was unaware of any other comments.

ok. 

Microsoft has 2 options as I see it:

1. Sell it as an add-on.  MS will probably charge just as much as all the other add-ons basically $99.   In this case, not that many will buy it and the whole natal thing will go the way of the eyetoy, something that only a minority is interested in. 

2.  Bundle it with  360:   a or b

a.  Microsoft can either bundle it in for free, in which case they would be losing at minimum $50 , money that could be spent elsewhere.  This is just stupid. Jagged, you realize that Sony just put out a cheaper version of its standard console?  It didn't just cut the price $100 like MS did, it made its product cheaper.  Assuming that Natal costs $50 to make and that Sony saved $50 by making a slim version of the PS3, sony is only losing $50.  MS would have lost the $100 for the price cut, and another $50 for bundling a dud like Natal for free.   Heck, as a Sony fan I hope that MS wastes money like this so that the good guys can win.  My mind says, though that MS is making a fool out of itself.

b.  They can add it on for full price........and few are going to spend another $50-$75 for an add-on when the systems best and most well-known games don't require the extra expense.  

Hey, I could be wrong and i'll let you prove me wrong, ok?  Give me an example of any add-on that ultimately proved to be a big thing. 

It will be 1 and 2a.

Give me an example of an add-on that was treated like an entire re-launch of a platform replete with a lineup of software. If there are none, there are no comparisons to this. Even if there is one, there are so few examples that trying to deduce some sort of pattern is impossible.

I will tell you what MS is going to do. They are basically going to re-launch a console with a different name than the 360 and it will contain Natal inside the box. It will have the same innards as the 360, but it will give the appearance of something new.

This scenario is basically what Nintendo did with the GameCube and Wii, except that 360 owners will be able to add-on the motion controls to their system. This would be like Nintendo allowing GameCube owners to use the Wii Mote.

I can definitely see this scenario unfolding.

lol.....

well MS's past games won't be able to use natal.......

and MS does tend to concentrate on the FPS and RPG genres.......so they won't really get to use Natal for these.  Seriously, if MS thinks that they will have a "relaunch" of the console and shifting the focus of software to a bunch of motion controlled games which tend to be more casual something MS is decidedly NOT, then Sony and Ninty people will be glad to the point of wanting to throw a party b/c a culture shift to casual or even semi-casual games will be a big thing and I just don't think that MS will be as good as it has been for the more hardcore games that it is well known for.

Actually, MS's first party 360 releases are quite varied in genre.  You just think FPS and RPG are their focus because they have two quite large franchises in those categories.  MS relies heavily on third parties to deliver more non-casual experiences to gamers.  This works quite nicely for MS if they are going to shift a lot of their focus to the casual audience.

I really hope that MS does shift its focus to casual and leave sony as the only hardcore option. It would benefit sony to give them less competition, and they would probably pick up a few franchises in the process. Heck, MS can duke it out with ninty and leave sony in its own " blue ocean ".

Can you give me examples of how MS focuses on the hardcore?

MS focuses on the hardcore just as much as Sony does.  In some ways, especially with all of the online play that is Microsoft's bread and butter, they are more hardcore because they demand that online users have broadband, and have equipped consoles with headsets.  A shift to casual games will be stressful for MS......they will have to abandon what has worked well, and become an innovative company, a creative company with a style more like Ninty versus the focus on things like online play that it has going for it now. 

You won't want to use Natal for online.....it will probably be kinda imprecise.