It will be 1 and 2a.
Give me an example of an add-on that was treated like an entire re-launch of a platform replete with a lineup of software. If there are none, there are no comparisons to this. Even if there is one, there are so few examples that trying to deduce some sort of pattern is impossible.
I will tell you what MS is going to do. They are basically going to re-launch a console with a different name than the 360 and it will contain Natal inside the box. It will have the same innards as the 360, but it will give the appearance of something new.
This scenario is basically what Nintendo did with the GameCube and Wii, except that 360 owners will be able to add-on the motion controls to their system. This would be like Nintendo allowing GameCube owners to use the Wii Mote.
I can definitely see this scenario unfolding.
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