By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Slimebeast predicts: NPD and remaining PS3 & X360 sales 2009

gergroy on 25 August 2009
Slimebeast said:
gergroy said:
I agree with the sales estimates for this year. However, I don't agree with the ps3 eventually overtaking the 360, at least not yet. It all depends on what happens next fall. The 360 has a potential game changer on their hands with natal. However, it is too early to predict how much support it will get, so thats why I say it is still too early to declare who wins.


I give Natal only 25% chance to become a game changer - which actually translates into a clear statement (prediction) that Natal won't increase sales enough to overtake the PS3. I do think Natal willl be moderatley successful though, but most important the tech will carry over to the next gen. And btw remember, Sony has their wand tech too.

 

Yes, but how much hype have you seen for the sony wand in the media?  Almost none outside of gaming sites.  While Natal has made huge rounds and built up huge hype.  Of course, it could fall flat, but I would say it has a much larger chance of taking off than sony's wand.



Around the Network
Slimebeast on 25 August 2009
gergroy said:
Slimebeast said:
gergroy said:
I agree with the sales estimates for this year. However, I don't agree with the ps3 eventually overtaking the 360, at least not yet. It all depends on what happens next fall. The 360 has a potential game changer on their hands with natal. However, it is too early to predict how much support it will get, so thats why I say it is still too early to declare who wins.


I give Natal only 25% chance to become a game changer - which actually translates into a clear statement (prediction) that Natal won't increase sales enough to overtake the PS3. I do think Natal willl be moderatley successful though, but most important the tech will carry over to the next gen. And btw remember, Sony has their wand tech too.

 

Yes, but how much hype have you seen for the sony wand in the media?  Almost none outside of gaming sites.  While Natal has made huge rounds and built up huge hype.  Of course, it could fall flat, but I would say it has a much larger chance of taking off than sony's wand.


True. Natal I see 25% potential to become really big, while the wand has none of that big potential. Both could become moderate success or flop though.



Aion on 25 August 2009

Alright predictions but Natal will make the gap ever bigger.



 

   PROUD MEMBER OF THE PLAYSTATION 3 : RPG FAN CLUB

 

bigdom2786 on 25 August 2009
Aion said:
Alright predictions but Natal will make the gap ever bigger.

Please...we don't know what games will come out for it yet,and the announcement that Fable 3 wouldnt be compatible with it is disheartening.



Unclean on 25 August 2009
RPG said:
kowenicki is correct, now PS3 sales will increase but in a couple months sales of the PS3 will decrease rapidly. Also future price cuts of the 360 will increase sales so poor people can buy it and of course we cannot forget about Natal. No controller required and the fantastic userface will really make the casuals jump in.

Natal is a real game changer. Not only for the ease of use but also redefining gaming by playing games like shooters without a controller. It's going to work so well Sony really needs to combat it and the glowing dildo controller just won't do it.


How are you going to move without joysticks? Waving your arms pretending you are running? Sounds fun/ sarcasm



Do you want japanese voices in FF13 and Versus 13? Write to these guys and tell them: support@square-enix-usa.com

Around the Network
Golvellius on 25 August 2009
Slimebeast said:

I want to put my prediction on record so I can later rightfully claim that I'm the perdiction king on VGC.

At this point in time many people haven't yet quite realized that PS3 will come 2nd and X360 third this generation. We've only known it for a couple of weeks that the PS3 Slim will be introduced at $299, and that MS probably has dropped it's X360 Pro and 'replacing it' with the X360 Elite at $299 and leaving Arcade at $199 (but a drop in Sep/Oct down to $179 is not out of the question in my opinion along with a $249 HDD equipped SKU/Elite). But within a few months there will be almost no one left who thinks the X360 can outsell the PS3 this generation (<--- that's actually my first prediction).

Now to the formal predictions:

- NPD USA September will have the PS3 at 390,000 units. X360 around 300,000.

- The 5 week month of September will sell between 1.0-1.1 million PS3's worldwide and ~750,000 X360s (not necessarily supported by initial VGC data)
* it's a 5-week month as defined by NPD

- Sept-Dec will sell roughly 6.9 million PS3s (sales 'Week ending 5th Sep' 2009 to and including 'Week ending 4th Jan' 2010) 
- Sept-Dec will sell roughly 5.5 mill X360s

(for reference, right now, including 'Week ending 15th Aug', the PS3 has sold 4.1 million in 2009 so far, and X360 has sold 4.55 million according to VGC)

- Total PS3 sales in 2009 will be 11.4 million, and 30.5 million LTD (through Jan 4th 2010)
- Total X360 sales in 2009 will be 10,2 million, and 37.0 million LTD (through Jan 4th 2010)

(for reference, PS3 sold 10.0 million in 2008, and the X360 sold 10.9 million in 2008)

Therefore the PS360 gap will reduce to 6.6 million (compared to 7.73 mill in Jan 2009 and 8.17 million right now as I'm writing this)


Note that VGC sales data won't necessarily support my predictions initially, but my predictions are made with final VGC numbers in mind (after adjustments for official console shipment numbers have arrived etc, which usually takes about three months).

Also note that this is a pro prediction. There's no controversy, no hidden agenda or fanboy undertones in this prediction. It's just the plain truth.


You can quote me on this.

Your predictions seem about right to me.
However, I think that the 360 could as well be at 38.0 million LTD by the end of 2009 (PS3 numbers unchanged).

And while I also consider it at least possible that the PS3 finishes second (360 being third), I wouldn't make such a prediction until I've seen how both numbers develop until July 2010.

Kudos for sharing your thoughts though, your estimations really make sense to me.



Carl on 25 August 2009

The Wii had an analogue.



                            

Slimebeast on 25 August 2009
bigdom2786 said:
Aion said:
Alright predictions but Natal will make the gap ever bigger.

Please...we don't know what games will come out for it yet,and the announcement that Fable 3 wouldnt be compatible with it is disheartening.

Huh? Is it announced that Fable 3 wont support Natal? Im shocked. Are you sure, link?



Unclean on 25 August 2009
kowenicki said:
@unclean

hmmm... memories of the wii launch came flooding back then..


Que? Last time i checked the wii had a joystick on the controller, that way you can  actually move your characters. With Natal you have to either walk on the spot looking like a fucking asshole or wave your arms to move the character. It's an eytoy 1.5. Great for minigames, not a game changer.



Do you want japanese voices in FF13 and Versus 13? Write to these guys and tell them: support@square-enix-usa.com

RPG on 25 August 2009
kowenicki said:
Carl2291 said:
The Wii had an analogue.


who says Natal cant have accessories?

Defeats the purpose of Natal. :/

What an odd answer.