3 - 5 million (including bundles)

3-4mil soudns about right

It really depends on how good the game is for the regular public. This isn't your typical sequel in that it may only entice the previous userbase, with the new features and assists they are really targetting the widest possible userbase and it seems that they have taken to heart the idea of making the game more fun and more accessible.

TBH if this game gets a ton of advertising then its going to be a hit, not in the sense that advertising would sell more copies but in the sense that they believe so much in the title that it earns itself a ton of advertising.

I think this game has what it takes to have good legs and sell to 10% of the Xbox 360 userbase, so im going to nail it in at 5M+ copies legitimately sold like other good 5M+ games like Halo, Gears, etc which haven't required extensive bundling to get there.

7 million

How exactly would GT5's arrival have much (or anything) to do with Forza 3 sales?  Forza 3 - Xbox 360 exclusive.  GT5 - PS3 exclusive.  The end.  There really arent' that many people that have both consoles and I doubt hardcore racing fans who own both would opt to skip Forza 3.

Do you just believe that somehow the sheer awesomeness of GT5 will make 360 owners grieve and just stop buying games?  Or perhaps 360 owners will all trade in their hardware and games?  Maybe 360 owners will all drink the kool-aid and ride the spaceship to heaven.   (quick note, it hasn't happend in the past with hits like MGS5, Uncharted, Killzone 3, etc.)

If anything, GT5's arrival may actually HELP Forza 3 as it will renew the debate over which is better leading fans on both sides to pick it up.

Couldn't agree more.  I'd actually never considered your last point, but it does make sense and may drive a few extra sales.  Nothing groundbreaking, but a few.

3.0 million (without bundle)

You're all nuts.

well since Forza 2 is bundled heavily and now sitting at 4m I would say....

Non bundle- 2.5m LTD

Bundled- 4m-4.5m LTD