Taz! said: Im not asking for any graphs to be made on holiday seasons etc, that would be complicated. Im just saying that people should keep them in mind. Look at last christmas for example, the 360 increased it's lead over the PS3 by like 2M in less than 2 months.
If then the PS3 has a mega holiday boost this christmas and reduces the 360 lead to maybe 7M, then those 'overtaking forecasts' would change quite alot. If this happened the following fall again then these numbers would change again.
I know those numbers are averages, but they are inaccurate due to this, and there is really no way to make them accurate. |
I think I know what you are looking for. I posted this in the thread about Pachter's prediction that the PS3 would pull even with the 360 by the end of 2011.
I just don't see this happening. Everything would have to go just right for Sony to catch up to Microsoft.
In Q4 2008, everything seemed to go right for the 360 and everything seemed to go wrong for the PS3. In that scenario, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million units. If we completely reverse the scenario, and the PS3 makes up 2 million units for Q4 2009, 2010, and 2011, then we still have 2 million units to go out of the current 8 million unit gap.
That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 100,000 more units per month than the 360. Starting now.
I just don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to completely dominate three holiday seasons in a row. I also don't see the PS3 taking off like that month after month in the slow time of the year. The PS3 has not won a year against the 360 yet. This prediction just isn't going to come true.
That was posted before the recent adjustments though. Now the scenario looks even worse for the PS3. If the PS3 makes up 2 million units in Q4 of 2009, 2010, and 2011, that would leave 2.79 million units.
That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2.79 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 133,000 more units per month than the 360.
In the OP, we see that the 360 currently outsells the PS3 by 76,000 per month. To swing from down 76,000 per month to up 133,000 per month is a net change of 209,000 more units per month than what the PS3 is selling now. That's still a huge turnaround.
If we move the goal back to something like the end of 2012 it gets easier, but by this point, I don't think it matters anymore. Besides, I don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to win three holidays in a row like that.