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Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 v PS3 GAP CHARTS UPDATE - plus some new data

Microsoft is investing in first party studios. They recently closed several PC centered studios, but they also recently acquired several console specific studios as well. Not to mention MGS itself does development.

As far as a game being pc/360, there is no data to try and quantify assumptions about how this affects sales. Hell, a Valve game(a VERY highly regarded pc dev) sells 2.2 million copies on 360 with a day and date release with pc. Actually, pc may have released first, I am not sure on that. Would the 360 version have sold more without a pc version? Would the pc version have sold more without the 360 version? Is the 360 helping to diminish big pc games? Or is it helping sustain them?

Should Microsoft not accept games that devs want to create that are pc/360? Microsoft made a brilliant move by making pc -> 360 porting easy. They give developers an additional revenue stream from a rather large userbase. The more games, the better.



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kowenicki said:
i didnt think wii sports was free in Japan.... its bundled here - in japan it was always a purchase decison... so it is slightly different. I may have that wrong but it was my understanding.

As far as "new casual" goes... maybe they are a tad too fickle... I wouldnt pander to the tween girls and mums too much.

No you're correct it wasn't bundled, but I'm not talking about the software sales of it, but the fact that people who don't have a Wii are buying and purchasing WSR with it. Here in the West, what you will probably see is that WSR could have a high attach rate, IF indeed it is capable of increasing hardware.

...I agree, gamers in general are fickle, be it women or men, but they ALL have money to spend. All 3 companies have the same agenda, to get their product in as many hands as possible. PS3/XB360, choose to secure the "core" gamer first, where as Nintendo choose the "casual" gamer first...But make no mistake Nintendo is coming after the "core" audience as well. True "core" gamers, although a small percentage, don't have a problem with owning more then one console, thats what Nintendo is betting on I believe...



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Taz! said:
Im not asking for any graphs to be made on holiday seasons etc, that would be complicated. Im just saying that people should keep them in mind. Look at last christmas for example, the 360 increased it's lead over the PS3 by like 2M in less than 2 months.

If then the PS3 has a mega holiday boost this christmas and reduces the 360 lead to maybe 7M, then those 'overtaking forecasts' would change quite alot. If this happened the following fall again then these numbers would change again.

I know those numbers are averages, but they are inaccurate due to this, and there is really no way to make them accurate.

I think I know what you are looking for.  I posted this in the thread about Pachter's prediction that the PS3 would pull even with the 360 by the end of 2011.

I just don't see this happening. Everything would have to go just right for Sony to catch up to Microsoft.

In Q4 2008, everything seemed to go right for the 360 and everything seemed to go wrong for the PS3. In that scenario, the 360 outsold the PS3 by 2 million units. If we completely reverse the scenario, and the PS3 makes up 2 million units for Q4 2009, 2010, and 2011, then we still have 2 million units to go out of the current 8 million unit gap.

That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 100,000 more units per month than the 360. Starting now.

I just don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to completely dominate three holiday seasons in a row. I also don't see the PS3 taking off like that month after month in the slow time of the year. The PS3 has not won a year against the 360 yet. This prediction just isn't going to come true.
That was posted before the recent adjustments though.  Now the scenario looks even worse for the PS3.  If the PS3 makes up 2 million units in Q4 of 2009, 2010, and 2011, that would leave 2.79 million units.

That leaves Sony 21 slow months to make up the other 2.79 million. That would require the PS3 to sell around 133,000 more units per month than the 360.

In the OP, we see that the 360 currently outsells the PS3 by 76,000 per month.  To swing from down 76,000 per month to up 133,000 per month is a net change of 209,000 more units per month than what the PS3 is selling now.  That's still a huge turnaround.

If we move the goal back to something like the end of 2012 it gets easier, but by this point, I don't think it matters anymore.  Besides, I don't see Microsoft allowing Sony to win three holidays in a row like that.



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The conclusion of all that's being discussed (the gap between 360 and PS3, Wii 50% market share, etc...) really goes to show what a great generation this is for discussing sales.

I agree that Wii paid for Wii Music and Animal Crossing not doing anything great in terms of sales (MKWii and Wii Fit are the ones still carrying the Wii) but I am just surprised at how quickly things turned around.

For the record, I thing WSR in the West will be big and HW will be lifted significantly. July release though will not make it as impressive in terms of gross numbers but %wise will be good and I think that will carry over to the holidays. 50% market share for the Wii though is looking less and less likely with PS3s big guns coming (price drop and GT and FF in some regions at least) while MS should be able to keep the 360 respectable by whatever means necessary.

Happy this site is discussing sales again!!



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It would appear that the worldwide 360 vs PS3 gap has been accelerating since Jan.



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darthdevidem01 said:
Good work kownicki

_________

proves 360 price cut was very effective, also proves, if the price is dropped right in the holidays a console can outsell its counterpart by much more than in the whole year
__________

HD/Wii charts proves people should kiss goodbye the 50% marketshare dream

so, the price drop right in the holidays "rule" only apply to hd consoles?



rrrmacleod said:
darthdevidem01 said:
Good work kownicki

_________

proves 360 price cut was very effective, also proves, if the price is dropped right in the holidays a console can outsell its counterpart by much more than in the whole year
__________

HD/Wii charts proves people should kiss goodbye the 50% marketshare dream

so, the price drop right in the holidays "rule" only apply to hd consoles?

I guess he feels nintendo is bullish enough to let it ride one more year. 

 

while the 360 is following a scripted plan,

 

and the PS3 all signs point to price drop 



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kowenicki said:
@lazyrider

And just to prove it is a good gen for these conversations.....I disagree with nearly all of that... lol

I doubt WSR will lift hardware anything like we have seen in Japan percentage wise. Why would it bring new people in?? didnt they like a free copy of wii sports?

PS3 and its "big guns" will have a small effect on hardware in my opinion, except maybe in Japan with FFXIII and GT5 possible there. Will either of those launch in the west this year?


 That's what discussing is all about!

I'm really curious of seeing what WSR will do in the west as Wii Sports comes bundles (as opposed to Japan of course). Has Nontendo said anything about changing the undles it will propose?

About PS3, included in my "big guns" comment was a price drop. That coupled to big games is a good mix for HW boosts. Though Sir Howard reminded us all that no price drop coming... I thought GT was coming out in the West for the holidays. Am I misinformed?



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crumas2 said:
It would appear that the worldwide 360 vs PS3 gap has been accelerating since Jan.

The fact that you can do with the XB360 what you can with the PS3, the PS3 double the price for entry, sealed the deal really. Sony hoped that their new IP's and exclusives would help sale and differeniate it from the XB360 up til now, and that simply hasn't happen...and looking at the road map ahead...I'm not sure it will.

...I'm throwing the gauntlet down now, lol, based on Stringer's comments, I don't think a price cut for Sony will happen this fiscal year. expect HEAVY bundling to move hardware.



The Interweb is about overreaction, this is what makes it great!

...Imagine how boring the interweb would be if everyone thought logically?

Taz! said:
This again ignores holiday seasons. We all know a fantastic PS3 Christmas could effect those numbers greatly.

 

Sure but still, look at the last 9 month.

 

I took WW for the last 9 which is since the 360 cut.

 

844 444 units of PS3 on avarage per month
1 177 777 units of 360 on avarge per month

333 333 in difference on avarage per month

That is the effect on a price cut over 9 month, and it wont get any bigger up until 1 year after the cut instead smaller.

Now look at this:

A great holiday sale of PS3 with pricecut will never come up to a whole year avarage of 112 366 consoles, impossible. 67 419 more machines more or less requires 360 to drop dead at the same time as PS3 gains ground.

48 157 is possible but for so many years in a row?

So the chance of PS3 to even the gap before 2013-2014 is more or less impossible and requires miracles where 360 dies.



Predictions for 2009:

360: 39-42 PS3: 31-34 Wii: 67-70

Future projection

Wii will hit 100 million before christmas 2010 (made december 2008)

NDS Family will have sold and shipped more then PS2 at the end of 2009 (made january 2009)