You are forgetting this is released very near holiday season unlike Halo 3. During holidays all console sales rise a lot unless there are supply problems which 360 probably won't have. So 360 sales could probably be around 200k even without Mass Effect. Although I agree it won't sell so much extra systems. My prediction:

G: 400K, H: 200K

G: 475K H: 175K

I think the game will outsell KoToR simply because it's more action oriented and the 360 userbase appears to buy more games than their Xbox 1 counterparts did. I also think it'll outsell Oblivion since the space/sci-fi/shooter elements will likely appeal to a larger audience than the rpg crowd on the 360. I expect this game to have between 2.5 million - 2.8 million sales in it's lifetime.

G: 400k

H: 150k (not much more than usual. Sales will still be up from H3 + Holidays)

It depends on how well MS markets this game. Right now, I'm sure only hardcore gamers have heard of it, but if MS markets it like Gears, it could end up selling very well. However, I think MS will focus most of their advertising money on Halo 3, leaving ME for the most part ignored by consumers. I believe it will end up under most people's radar, and not selling very well as a result.

Game: 500,000 Units first week (ala Gears of War)
Hardware: 200,000 Units (around a 75% increase YOY)

Now, as for worldwide total cume. Call me insane, but I see Mass Effect doing really, really well. Two Worlds is doing just insane (probably around 300-350k worldwide now), and has a below-60% ranking.

Also, Oblivion is already 10% above Morrowinds entire LTD total, despite the GOTY just coming out 2 weeks ago. And having said this, KOTOR did quite a bit better (100k) than Morrowind.

I see Mass Effect doing 3 million units+ for the following reasons:

#1. It will have rather broad appeal. It's sci-fi, which is a plus, has a great name brand and developer hype/media hype. It will sell well in Japan (100k), which always helps.

#2. It's basically the must-have game of Christmas 2007 for the X360 along with H3, Bioshock and COD4, but has the advantage of being the closest to Christmas (I think it'll take the X360 s/w #1 crown in the month of December).

#3. It doesn't have the Star Wars stigma attached to it. Don't get me wrong, everyone loves to spend $10 to see chewie and Han Solo blow something up, but spending $60 on a Star Wars game for alot of people might seem.....Nerdy. Having a great game like ME in a sci-fi neutral world will do it good.

So I say no less than 3m w/w, with sales being around 2.05m in the US, 850k in PAL, and 100k in Japan....If not more per region. Could top out at 4m, and get close to GOW.

Is this for WW or US sales?

Mass Effect is currently predicted to sell 2.94 million copies world wide on the video game prediction market.  I personally think that is a bit high for an RPG on the Xbox 360 and have been shorting that prediction.  I don't see it outselling Oblivion that much, if at all.

G 375,000
H 150,000

525k game sales

190 hardware

I think you guys underestimate it's week 1 sales a lot. Hardware is probably higher than I predicted but as you said its the holidays...

That sim exchange site can't be accurate. They have SSBB and SMG at 17 million and 16 million. I expect them both to be great successes (over 10 million) but that's just too high.

i want that game so bad! i love Bioware since KOTOR, one of my top 5 favorite games of all time!!!