But the question is when, like Bard said. My guess is that Nintendo has free reign to gain marketshare all summer, as the competition has very little on the immediate horizon to compete with Resort and Motion Plus worldwide, or compete with Monster Hunter Tri in Japan.

They'll have to fight starting in October, especially in Japan, when FFXIII and the PS3 price drop/slim comes along, and then of course fight against the regular holiday overload for PS360 multiplats, though Wii Fit Plus and NSMBWii should more than offset it.

don't forget about Modern Warfare 2 in November.

It will be a strange thing to see the marketshare jump that much that quickly. It just hasnt happened to date, and I cant see the gap being that dramatic.

As for the 2nd paragraph, you mention motion controls pushing sales when I just explained before that the motion controls wont penetrate the casual markets like people think, but give the current HD system owners a new means of controls. You also said big names coming out in the future, when i directly said there's not much besides FF13 that are know as system pushers, maybe God of War 3 might be a bit of a boost. Other games announced are more of the interest for current owners of those systems.  Price drops are credible, but titles and motion controls, I think will have a lot less impact than you seem to expect.

I think a good reason is that we had the Wii at 48.8% before, but it went down again because there were several readjustments to the Wii sales.


Hopefully we don't have one again...not because we want the Wii sales to go higher (shouldn't affect us either ways) but because it doesn't help the website's image...

When I first said 55% I was just using round numbers. I'm just guesstimating that it'll be above 50% by a small bit. You're right, that jump is pretty big.

Rather than actively push consoles by making people excited about motion control, I think ps360's motion control will probably just give people an alternative to the wii's gaming ideals. Thus, it may not have an impact on a portion of casual gamers, but it may have an impact on the people in between casual, who are attracted by the massive libraries of both HD consoles. Not to dismiss the wii at all, but HD systems do have an array of gamer-centric games that seem to be lacking. The ability for a consumer to have both access to games like Gears of war and Grand Theft Auto, as well as have access to MoCon things like sports/ puzzles and other genres is a pretty good draw. It may not attract new customers, but it may appeal to some potential wii customers or wii owners.

FF13 will provide a pretty drastic boost. I expect to see a boost similar to the one that happened with GTA, in that not only will it increase sales dramatically during that week, but will add a further boost to lifetime performance due to indirect effects like popularity, library diversity, spinoffs and sequel potentials.

Even if all of these things only contribute a small percentage on their own, all it takes is a little bit to start decreasing the market share. The price drop will obviously be the most dramatic factor, but we should not exclude other factors simply because they are smaller. To put it in better terms, all of these things can only help them sell more consoles, not hurt them. Even if MoCon only sells an extra 5-7k per week to each console worldwide, that is a significant portion of the weekly gap.

PS3 sales will skyrocket when a Price Cut and Slim PS3 come, that will imo indefinitely suppress the Wii from ever getting 50% market share, unless Wii is dropped to $200, $150 etc etc which I don't ever see happening as they have no reason to because it will still outsell the PS3 and 360, just not outsell the PS3 and 360 combined thus it won't gain anymore market share and will most likely lose some over time.

Well that's my prediction.

^The 360 is already cheaper than the Wii in certain model and look what is happening now.

Besides, the PS3 slim isn't even officially announced. Expect a delay between announcement and the actual release.

Yeah I see whats happening now, the lowest end 360 is half the price of the lowest end PS3 and it is barely outselling it.

Dont be daft here, the PS3 may end up selling on par or at least close to the Wii (Who the hell knows right? If $300 turns out to be the sweet spot for the PS3 alot could happen) if it drops $100.

Anyone else see PS3 sales skyrocketing with a $100 drop and a Slim announcement to go with it?

I'd expect up, as the availability and production is at an all time high, it has Wii Motion Plus coming, a black model in Japan, and new Mario. I see many good games on the horizon for 360 and PS3, but none in the near future that will move hardsware, and if either competitor offers a price cut, we know Nintendo will be able to match them