bardicverse said:
It will be a strange thing to see the marketshare jump that much that quickly. It just hasnt happened to date, and I cant see the gap being that dramatic. As for the 2nd paragraph, you mention motion controls pushing sales when I just explained before that the motion controls wont penetrate the casual markets like people think, but give the current HD system owners a new means of controls. You also said big names coming out in the future, when i directly said there's not much besides FF13 that are know as system pushers, maybe God of War 3 might be a bit of a boost. Other games announced are more of the interest for current owners of those systems. Price drops are credible, but titles and motion controls, I think will have a lot less impact than you seem to expect. |
When I first said 55% I was just using round numbers. I'm just guesstimating that it'll be above 50% by a small bit. You're right, that jump is pretty big.
Rather than actively push consoles by making people excited about motion control, I think ps360's motion control will probably just give people an alternative to the wii's gaming ideals. Thus, it may not have an impact on a portion of casual gamers, but it may have an impact on the people in between casual, who are attracted by the massive libraries of both HD consoles. Not to dismiss the wii at all, but HD systems do have an array of gamer-centric games that seem to be lacking. The ability for a consumer to have both access to games like Gears of war and Grand Theft Auto, as well as have access to MoCon things like sports/ puzzles and other genres is a pretty good draw. It may not attract new customers, but it may appeal to some potential wii customers or wii owners.
FF13 will provide a pretty drastic boost. I expect to see a boost similar to the one that happened with GTA, in that not only will it increase sales dramatically during that week, but will add a further boost to lifetime performance due to indirect effects like popularity, library diversity, spinoffs and sequel potentials.
Even if all of these things only contribute a small percentage on their own, all it takes is a little bit to start decreasing the market share. The price drop will obviously be the most dramatic factor, but we should not exclude other factors simply because they are smaller. To put it in better terms, all of these things can only help them sell more consoles, not hurt them. Even if MoCon only sells an extra 5-7k per week to each console worldwide, that is a significant portion of the weekly gap.
