11 million is not impossible. Looking at Sony's investor relations PR sheet, they predicted 11 million for Fiscal 07 and already recorded 0.71 million sold to retailers in the first quarter (April to June 07). So they need to sell 11 - .71 = 10.29 million.

About half of all console sales take place in the holiday season, and this is the first year the PS3 will truly be available worldwide. So that means selling about 5 million units worldwide during Oct-Dec - say, 2 million in North America, 2 million in Europe, 1 million in Japan. Over three months, these numbers are doable. A Euro/Japan price cut would do the trick.

Don't forget, there's an awful lot of high-quality software coming out for the PS3 in the near future, and HDTVs are pretty much affordable, so the Blu-Ray factor will start to kick in.

I always get upset with those shows on the history channel about Nazi Germany, and how if they did just these three or four things the war could have turned the other way or gone on longer. I understand why they do it people like what if scenarios, but the reality is the war went as far as it did based on the allied nations making a lot of boneheaded maneuvers early on that gave Nazi Germany as many opportunities as it got.

Such is the logic many posters are choosing to use. You cannot work off of a perfect scenario. One where everything goes perfect for one guy. Life is not like that at all. Even the Wii has failed to have a perfect scenario. Nintendo under appreciated the demand for their console. They could be at over twenty million units sold right now, and secured ownership of this generation. Sure it seems likely they will dominate, but its not a forgone conclusion like the perfect scenario.

You cannot just say if Sony does all these perfect things their console will explode in the current market. Especially given their track record over the last couple years. You have to be realistic about these things, and more to the point you need to curb your enthusiasms. Simply wanting something to happen is not a logical argument. Many of these arguments involve Sony eating five or even six billion dollars more in losses in six months time. You have to realize this is not a realistic expectation. Even Microsoft of Nintendo would shy away from those kinds of loses, and investors would revolt.

Sony is playing with fuzzy math, and has a fuzzy memory. Six months ago they missed shipment estimates by half a million units. Thats right they said the exact same thing they are saying now, and yet somehow they missed the mark. Their credibility is questionable on the shipment front alone. They almost said the exact same thing about sales verbatim. Obviously we know how that turned out at the time they had two million units unsold. Having sold only 3.5 million units compared to 5.5 millions shipped. Seriously how do you miss bench marks you set for yourself by that much. A true lesson in arrogance.

You know what is the most damning thing about such a statement. That it is totally based on self interest, and backed up by desperation. They are not going to say what they really think the situation will be. Any rational statement would be almost an admission of defeat. So they use fuzzy wording and fuzzy logic in an attempt to appear competitive. Seriously even the fuzzy statements sound bad. They are saying they expect to only be six months behind Microsoft in six months. I suppose they can also say they will only be seven months behind Nintendo in six months to.

Someone call the CDC foot in mouth disease is running rampant at Sony for going on ten months now. This is a serious outbreak if you believe in the perfect scenario one of the items on your list should be sudden midnight disappearances of loud egotistical Sony executives. They have probably cost Sony a few hundred thousand in sales so far.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!! Those crazy zany guys over there at Sony. What a hoot they are!

I have them down for maybe 4m during the holidays (7.5-8.0m by end of '07) - but 5m is possible.

BUT - that still leaves almost 3-4m short in what is usually the slowest part of the year (or close to it). No way they can sell 3-4m in the 4th qrt - without a massive price cut, game list & ad campaign. And even then, they would likely only sell 2-2.5m (around double what they are selling now).

That alone leaves them almost 2m short of predictions.

I figure 4m over the holidays, and 1.5-2.0m over 4th qrt. Which places them around 3.5m short of fiscal predictions.

...

As I have said before, the real battle starts Jan 1st '08.

A claim as bold as this makes me think Sony really does have a 40GB PS3 in the works. I had mostly dismissed it before, considering the clearance sale of the 60GB to be the closest we'd get to an '07 price drop, but unless the price gets dropped before Christmas there's no way Kaz is right on this. The holidays aren't going to be that kind to the PS3.

I still have a hard time seeing the 40GB at $400 this year, though. But I guess that we will see. I'm leaning more towards a $450 unit as a possibility, just because of the amount lost per console.

*points to his sig*

Not happening.

Uhm, first of all the fact that you seem to think the PS3 could get a $150 price cut this year is...well insane. But you take it a step further when you say that you think in 2008 when they lower the 80GB model they are gonna drop it $200 instead of the $100 everyone else is expecting which is also insane. 

I would be very interested to know how you think Sony could finance such an endeavor and why you think they would be willing to shovel that much money into the console right now.

Well, after reading all of your posts. Especially, FishyJoe and Shams, it seems apparent that by the end of this year Sony will be lowering their FY predictions. There is no way FY2007 will net 11m PS3's. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Better luck FY2008 guys. Because that is when some big names should drop.

It wouldn't surprise me. Sony originally went into FY06 estimating only $700 million loss for the gaming unit. It wound up losing over $2 billion. So their track record isn't very good.

Why doesn't Sony just sell a PS3 without a hard drive?

That would lower the PS3's cost substantially, and sans-hdd owners can just put a hard drive of their choice in the PS3, saving them money (and is probably something that many PS3 owners have already done).