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Forums - Sales Discussion - Killzone 2 fails to crack 1 million units in US

Max King of the Wild said:
NJ5 said:
outlawauron said:
Is 100k really the average? What about all the testers, etc. I know they make <40k a year.

$100k is the whole cost of having a person on a team, not just the salary. Look at the graph from Factor 5 with development costs:

http://i32.tinypic.com/10glffn.jpg

100-people teams make a game for around $20 million, and this is most likely for games which are developed in 18-24 months, not the ones which are developed for very long like Killzone 2.

 


100 man teams = 20mil... yet 120 man teams = 40mil... and... what game has 1.5 year dev time (no hand held)

There are several studios which release one game every 18-24 months.

 



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the steve - first 6 months of KZ2 development they didnt have a full team. I'd say about 30 people were working on KZPSP. 30 people on a 1.5 year development time would put a PSP game about 4.5 million a little less though cause 30 people wont need to be present the full 1.5 year and it might be shorter than 1.5 years... so since KZPSP was in development during KZ2's development it would be impossible to have the full 120 men on KZ2. Hence 95 people for 6 months.

with me still?



From what I understand the article is pointing out that the game was a flop. For two of the three criteria it is correct. The game failed financially, and the game failed to live up to the hype. The third criteria of quality remains intact. I must honestly concur with the assessment, and if someone turns off their blinders they must concede the same.

Others have said it games are not fifty percent profit. In fact you will be lucky to get a fifteen percent profit. Once development ceases the counter continues to grow. You have taxes, manufacturing, packaging, shipping, advertising, support staff, management, and of coarse a reasonable profit percentage for retailers. Then the profit must first pay for the development debt.

We worked the math months ago, and their arithmetic for the price is spot on with all I have read. This game needs to sell in excess of six million units at full price. At half price within three months, and your probably looking at closer to ten million sales. All of this just to break even, and to actually start making money.

Which brings me to criteria number two. This game might have gotten the sales had the hype machine worked. It would have been a stretch to get over thirty percent of owners on board, but there are a few games that have come close this generation, and one of those titles is Halo 3. Which is what this game was to be for this console, and has failed miserably at replicating. Now I am not blaming the game. I have seen the reviews, and those are exceptional scores.

I am blaming the owners for not purchasing the game, and that underlines a real question. First has the marketing failed? Three years was a long time to drum up interest. Does this reflect the user base of the console as a whole? It is a very rare game that actually breaks four million units sold on the PS3. I have to ask is the PS3 user base so anemic as to not be able to support the kind of success we see on a 360 or even the Wii?

That has to be the real question it is either one or the other, because the game does have the quality. Which is failing the marketing, or is it being directed at deaf ears.



NJ5 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
NJ5 said:
outlawauron said:
Is 100k really the average? What about all the testers, etc. I know they make


Dodece, you're full of crap. Most thought out predictions placed it at 3-4 million lifetime with the majority of those sales coming from Europe.

It will sell over a million in America.

It does not need 10 million in sales to break even. Good God, you're pulling numbers out of your ass.



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@Max: This discussion would be much easier if you posted your justified estimate of KZ2's cost, instead of beating around the bush. Then we can discuss the specifics.



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Max King of the Wild said:
the steve - first 6 months of KZ2 development they didnt have a full team. I'd say about 30 people were working on KZPSP. 30 people on a 1.5 year development time would put a PSP game about 4.5 million a little less though cause 30 people wont need to be present the full 1.5 year and it might be shorter than 1.5 years... so since KZPSP was in development during KZ2's development it would be impossible to have the full 120 men on KZ2. Hence 95 people for 6 months.

with me still?

 

 

This is "the way you see it", and doesn't make having to pay those guys go away or anything like that.... Why don't you just answer "I refuse to believe this game is not making tones of money for Sony, and has singlehandedly changed this console generation, and I will argue this point in any way possible, regardless of the logic involved.  I will ask you to explain how the figures presented as fact can work, then I will try to pick apart your explanation as though it will somehow invalidate the actual numbers."

What your arguing does not change the fact that KZ2 isn't making any money yet...  You can come up with a scenario in which only 20 people were working on it all this time, it doesn't change anything.  You asked for an explanation because you didn't believe that $60m was possible...  You got one, and you're chewing apart the explanation as if it matters.  Ridiculous.



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NJ5 - i dont see how that would be easier since the way people get their numbers is has everything to do with coming up with the budget... why on earth would i reverse the process?



Thesteve.... why the fuck would the cost of making a game go towards a completely different games budget?



Retailer Margin = $12
Packaging/Disc = $3
Distribution, market development fee whatever? = $5

Total for Sony's pocket $40 over say 2M shipped = $80M

Game cost = $40M
Marketing = $20M

Profit as it stands? = 20M or 33%

How does that look?



Tease.