Personally I don't think so, but then again, Wii is the leading platform in sales, so strange things do happen, and I think people are tired of music games on the Wii by now so they might want to try something else.

Final Fantasy XIII?

The biggest thing, as always, is if the non core audience will want to buy this game. You may as well as remove most of the mothers and responsible mothers buying this for there kids off this list. Even though it is rated Teen, mothers don't buy into shooting up things and people as good clean fun.

That mean you have the male demographic. The core that stuck it out this long will want this game or eventually pick this game up if they have nothing else to play or price becomes reasonable for a "unknown" new game. This leaves the guys who mostly play Tiger Woods and such on the Wii, which is coming out too close to this game. Then there is NCAA in July and Madden in August.

Plus it will have to sell the 2 million by Nov or Modern Warfare 2 will eat the rest of its lunch. That would be 20 weeks from launch date. Sega is not known for quick price cuts (see Valkyria Chronicles)

it can manage a million, above that, dunno

I'ld love to say yes but I have my doubts.

The facts are:
1-Sales of the Call of duty 3 and World at war shows that for more that any fanboy of Sony or Microsoft want to say "Wii is only for mothers and children" (what i think that is stupid to say in the vgchartz) THERE IS an audience for FPS. And come on guys... look the sales of Killzone 2 and the sales of the Call of duty 3 and World at war for the Wii. Is almost the SAME CRAP, and i love my wii, but Call of duty 3 and World at war for the Wii is a crap, in the wii has better FPSs.

2-The Conduit will have commercials in the TV showing a great storyline (yes, for who that think that this game sucks only because is on the wii, you are wrong, sorry), if the Wii don't has teenagers that like core games and has a lot of executives(exemple) that want to play the Wii casually, this guy don't have time to see what games are coming to the wii, so he buys any crap that appears. A commercial in the TV is a great thing.

3-The Conduit looks MUUUUUCH better than Call of duty 3 and 4 (sorry COD). This game is about government conspiracies, and that sort of thing makes success on the U.S. . The sentence in the storyline video "How can Mankind fight a war, the enemy has already won" sounds cliche huh? But not for a FPS latterly, because what we see in the new consoles is a lot of FPS with the second war or something like that.

4-Killzone 2 is a great game, is a shame that he sold only 1 million, you can't say "woow he sold 1 million, this is enough", ok, you can say this thing, but not for a game like Killzone 2 in the plataform of the FPS games. Who will say that this game is selling fine? Give me a break, he did a great first week, but he died with the time, is having legs, but pretty short legs, believe me, Killzone 2 will not pass 2 million (but he deserves, I admit this)

5-Install Base

6-Hype, and ok, hype means nothing, right? But in this thread have people saying that this game don't have hype, this is because this is not a Nintendo website, go to any article of any Nintendo website (gonintendo maybe), you will see 100~200 posts saying: "woow first day for me". And of course hype means something, this means that the game is well accepted. Would be worse if the game was poorly accepted, hype is always better than a "bleh, this game sux" comment.  

Results-Install Base + Proves that the Wii has gamers that like FPS (with the Call of duty sales) different from what the guys that hates the wii wants to speak + Commercials in the TV to attract even the men who play casually and are among its 30 ~ 50 years and others + A great storyline showing what the America loves to see (government conspiracies) in great commercials of TV (oh man, the first Trailer showing the storyline looks like a Movie that will go to the the movie theater) = Great sales

tell me that this game will do a bad job in the sales now (if you hates the wii and is a fanboy, you will ignore the sales of the Call of duty and will say that i am wrong and the Wii only has children and mothers).

Here is the Storyline video, tell me if this video don't looks like a movie trailer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlyZd_EW2t

Hostile? No you've got me all wrong I'm far from hostile and if I were you'd know it.  The thing I see is I show you how the launch line-up wasn't childish with facts, you come back with backing down from that argument and changing to wanting violence.  The thing is for about the first six months to a year after launch Wii had more M rated titles then PS3 and that's also a fact.  So hostile no... I was just trying to show the folly in some asinine logic and stereotype with actual facts.

Please dont respond unless you actually have something right ;) (see I can do it too!)

OT: With the low sales of KZ2 The Conduit has a shot if the hype can be built up outside of the internet and people learn about it.  Do I think it will?  Probably not, hopefully it'll sell a bit more then W@W though.

1. People claim that The Conduit is a better game than Call of Duty for the Wii...but is everyone else also forgetting that it doesn't matter at all? How did Call of Duty 3 and Red Steel sell so well if Wii owners were really so nit-picky about quality? The Conduit may end up being a better game (I still don't think anyone should be stating it will be better like it's a fact), but brand name was behind Call of Duty.

2. Advertising isn't going to do much for this game. It will definitely help the sales, but it's not like it's going to make the game a huge success.

3. Americans love government conspiracies? So what about the top selling shooter series, such as Halo, Gears, and Call of Duty? Are those full of government conspiracies? Let me tell you just right now that they're really not. And most of the shooter games we've seen recently are modern or futuristic, thanks to the success of the 360 shooter trio (Halo, Gears, Call of Duty 4) and the success of Valve's games.

4. Killzone 2 is not a person. It's not a "he." I'm fine with english not being your first language, just thought I'd mention that. Killzone 2 has sold 1.5 million, not 1 million. And it's done that in a relatively short amount of time. You really don't believe it will pass 2 million when it only has another 500k to go? Suit yourself, but you'll just be wrong.

5. Really helped World at War, didn't it?

6. If internet hype was the deciding factor, than LittleBigPlanet would have sold better than Gears of War 2 or any other big game in 2008. And this site does have a lot of Nintendo fans, so don't make excuses.

Results: Pfft, whatever.

1) The legs of older games are always affected by newer games. Some people who haven't bought it yet, weren't going too. And if they saved for it, they might find a newer (shooter) game more intersting. That goes for any genre. Most people don't buy more than one game in a month. And they will be forced to making choices.

In november 2009 mw2 should release. It's the sequel of a succesful game. Most legpower of killzone 2 will be cut short by this. If not before that, with another game.

2) Most m-rated games for the wii are not easily found or seen. They are not in front of the stored wii games. The idea that t-rated is not good for sales makes no sence. Someone under 18 can buy the game. The majority of games are still for children (teens). Aren't they? Do most parents buy m-rated games for the children or allowing them to buy it? How can this fact not help the sales.

3) It's funny that you think it has very little chances, because it's a new Ip. The first killzone was not known by most gamers, even 'hardcore'.  Killzone 2 was basically a new Ip itself. And then the conduit would fail. When i look at the styles of both games i see far more mainstream appeal for the conduit. It has more colors.

4) The whole 'Third party' doesn't even matter because most people don't even make the differenciat between a real Nintendo game or third party. Most don't even understand the difference. Even on site's like gametrailers and others.

5) The wii has a install base of some 50 million. Two in fifty and it could be even with Killzone 2 (depending on it's sales). Those are good odds, anyway you put it.

6) The fps genre is seen as mainstream, on any platform. That's bad for the conduit?

7) I rate it's chances on 65% for 1.5 million, 35% 2.5 million. We'll see how it turns out.