Stefan.De.Machtige said:
The conduit has a lot of factors going for it. There is a real possibilty it could beat Killzone 2, which sales are dropping off. If Killzone 2 stays under 2 milion, it could get beaten. I see the conduit al least selling 1 milion. Come on, it's even t-rated. That alone makes a big difference. |
Let me give you a basic maths lesson.
Killzone 2's sales are currently at 1.53 million. Last week, not counting Japan, it sold 27k units.
If it steadied at even 15k per week (I don't see why it can't do that), it would be at 2 million (470k away) in 32 weeks.
This is not counting Greatest Hits, not counting holiday seasons, and not counting the fact that it isn't steadying at 15k per week anytime soon.
You're acting like this game finds itself in a empty vacuum without any other (shooter) games around. Most of it's sellingpower has already been spend. I don't know how much but i doubt it will go over 2m.
I don't see why its sales should be affected by any other FPS games, to be honest. Were CoD4's legs cut short by World at War, Resistance 2 or Killzone 2?
I don't see how The Conduit being T-Rated makes any difference, to be honest. It's a letter, about four square centimetres large, on the front of the game's cover. That's the only difference. It's the same game, whether it's an M or a T. Uncharted was a T, which I find pretty surprising, given the high levels of violence, gore and swearing. Considering Dawn of War was an M...
You're forgetting that the conduit was designed to be t-rated, so it sells more. They looked at what sold and decided that it should have a t-rating. Something super niche like madworld was pretty much sold under the counter desk. The conduit will be in plain sight at most, if not all, stores. So it does matter.
M-rated games are not sold under the counter. Look at Halo, Gears of War and GTA. All in plain sight in all stores.
There have been M-rated successes on the Wii, such as RE4 Wii Edition, and to a certain extent CoD:WaW, but both were from established, respectably-selling franchises.
It's still an FPS on a console which struggles to sell that genre; CoD:WaW will be lucky to get 2 million LT, and it's part of an established franchise. I can't see The Conduit doing more than 1.5 million, and even that's pretty optimistic. Killzone 2's sales will probably double those of The Conduit.
Just Like HV adopted the t-rating, they are planning a good promotion campaign. They put some hard work in the game itself and are clearly smart enough to plan beyond that. Their last storytrailer had a lot of spark, certainly more then the examples you mention. Sega can market the hell out of that trailer alone.
I'm sure they put plenty of hard work into the game. But you can't expect advertising to sell a game that people won't buy. In my opinion, anybody who thinks this can outsell a remake with excellent controls and great (for the Wii) graphics of what is considered one of the best games of the last generation (RE4 Wii) needs a reality check. At the end of the day, it's a new IP, it's an FPS, it's third party, and it's on Wii. Those aren't exactly the circumstances under which a game would sell 3 million copies (and even if it achieved that, that would still be below Killzone 2)
HV is putting their best in this. And time will tell, if it pays off. I give them at least a good chance.
Nothing is impossible, but I would say no more than a 5% chance, if that.
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