I believe in the UK the Wii has already passed the LTD of the GC and is still selling very well so I strongly doubt your idea has any bases in fact.

Even though I'm sure the hard core nintendo crowd are happily buying Wii's it's logical to assume at least some are waiting for SSMB or SMG to come out before buying.

The "casual crowd" that the Wii is aimed at seem to be people who bought ps2's last gen as it was cheap. It also had so many games that at least some were for "casual" players.

From my personal experiance it seems the Wii has indeed broken into a new market and is creating new gamers. It also appeals to some older PC gamers who wish to game with their families.

keep in mind that the Wii is still greatly outselling all other consoles, despite the fact that it is the only one to NOT have had a price drop yet...

I think this fact alone shows that the Wii will be selling for years to come...

Sorry if my post was not very clear, i was never any good in english class.  English is my first laungage, i'm just not very smart :P

All my assumptions are based on their being a set number of gamers, and once that number of systems are sold then thats it, its just a matter of how fast the systems are sold.  This is also based on their being 100-110 million home console gamers last gen aswell.

I think it'll have beaten the cube by March next year. I also think it'll be at least 40 million Wiis sold after holiday season next year. I base this in historic data, financial reports, and the birth of a new gaming phenomenon, called Wii Fit, which judging by the main press, is pretty much guaranteed to repeat Wii Sport's success.

Then, then I just know it'll simply stop selling, as publishers walk away and tired gamers resell all their now worthless units for less than $50 bucks on Ebay. After breaking 40 million units sold in record time, it'll never even reach 50 million, much less be considered a successful console.

i don't know how you estimate those numbers... however, people say the Wii is expanding the market, i don't think it's expanding as much as people think. 25% expansion is my my estimate, and the rest are people who owned a PS2 or some sort of gaming machine last gen.

that's why nintendo talks so much about expanding the market; it's because they know they haven't really been able to do it yet, and they want to keep capturing the public's imagination. it's an ongoing effort, and to nintendo, it's all about drawing in new gamers. that's why it's so scary; a 100% expansion, like john lucas forecasted, is completely within the realm of possibility.

I think the Wii has something the PS2 had last Gen.
Momentum.

If nintendo does a good job this holiday and Wii Fit is a success I can't see them ever losing it.
But the Wii is also very different from the PS2 in it's appeal...it's something new.

The Wii is a Virus. Its fun to see people play it. People like seeing others have fun. Fun is infectious.

When you play for the first time it's really great so you go out and buy it. A friend comes over has fun, goes out and buys one and gets one for his parents, his mum tells her hair dresser who then buys it for her son...and so it spreads. You can't stop it. It's already to late. It's in the wild.

This is your mistake.  There is no such thing as a fanbase.  I'll go ahead and save anyone else the trouble of responding to this topic of yours.

You assume 85% of Wii owners owned Gamecubes.  However, other than just the sales evidence which is so strongly against that it's ridiculous, we have a poll taken on this very site.  Enjoy:  http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?start=0&id=4541

Go ahead and read through the first page of that post.  It's pretty clear very quickly that even on this site most Wii owners never had a Gamecube.  Although he didn't post here, even the biggest fanboy of all, Soriku, didn't own a Gamecube.  Even more entertaining, the aint-Soriku, Leo-j, owned a Gamecube but no Wii.  So you see, the so called "Nintendo fanboys" aren't really Nintendo fanboys, they are just moving with the times. 

The issue is you assume there is a such thing as a Nintendo fanbase.  There may be 10 million gamers in the world who are actually loyal to a company.  Everyone else?  They just buy whatever they feel like buying each generation.  I'll tell you an industry secret: Only three things determine which system sells the best each generation.  Price, quantity of games, and mass media recognition.

Why is this? Well that's because we don't matter.  By we, I mean all of us 10 million or so gamers who actually get on the internet and look up game information.  We mean nothing.  The vast majority of gamers are average people who walk into a game store and go straight to whatever has the most games.  Or they go buy whatever has the biggest advertisement, or the best advertisement.  Or they buy that thing they heard about on TV.  How about that system Stephen Colbert picked up?  Oh yeah, it was the Wii.  

The Wii is the cheapest, the Wii has the most games, and the Wii has the best mass market advertising.  That's all that matters in the end.  That's what every winning console has had.  The Gamecube was slightly cheaper than the PS2 but had so many fewer games that it didn't matter. It doesn't matter if they have the best games of the generation.  The two highest rated games of last generation were on the Gamecube (Metroid Prime and Resident Evil 4).  Did that mean anything? No.  It never does. 

To summarize: core gamers have no effect whatsoever on the winning console in any given generation, including this one.  I've been gaming for 20 years GranTurismo.  I have owned every major gaming console ever made up to this generation, and I will stake my tens of thousands of dollars worth of video games and video game systems on this statement:  Nothing will outsell the Wii this generation, with the possible exception of the DS.

Out of the 50 Wii owners i know, 50% are first time console buyers. They bought the Wii for Wii Sports and Wii Play. And are looking forward to similar games like carnival games, Ea's Playground etc ...
35% are multiplatform gamers and 15% are exclusive nintendo fanboys.

Wii will fall due to it lacking games among many other smaller reasons.

Time will tell.