If they can hold their ground and get more third party support they could probably dominate.

I don't think Nintendo will win. They won this gen because of how much media attention it got and its very low price. Next gen Sony and Microsoft will release much cheaper consoles that will compete with Nintendo's next console.

Also I doubt the "Wii 2" or whatever its called will get the same media attention the Wii did. And by media attention I mean being on every single talkshow including Ellen Degeneris giving a free Wii/Wii Fit to every audience member one show.

Next gen is tricky since we don't know if "casual" people will buy the next Ninty console. They might just stick with the Wii, since it's "good enough" for their needs. And by that time many Wii games will get ridiculously cheap.

So unless Nintendo has some really big idea, that will again catch much attention from the media and public, I'm not so sure of the outcome.

People are delusional if they think the Wii getting media attention is the sole reason for its success.

None the less, good luck to Sony and MS. Two companies that NEVER successfully market their products to expanding demographics outside the core technology/ adult male market

If other normal third parties believe that slapping the words Party and Sim on any minigame fest is all it takes to compete with Nintendo, then they are about as clueless as Sony and MS will be, in terms of stealing the Wii's expanded market.

Momentum between generations is a great boost to the winner of the previous gen, but only if the market remains much the same. The Super NES overpowered the Genesis because Sega tried to beat Nintendo at their own game, which can't be done. Sony, however, changed the game by making the console market more inclusive to adults and more focused around 3rd parties, two points where Nintendo was weak, and thus staged a coup.

The competitors against the PS2 really had no chance, because none of them were different enough to give people a reason to abandon the PS brand. Then in this generation, Nintendo made something completely different and compelling

So unless Sony, Microsoft, or some other, new entrant really introduces new ideas or technologies next gen, Nintendo will win that too.

It´s interesting the cycle of 2 consecutive victories followed by a major fall.

NES--victory
SNES--victory
N64--fall

PS1--victory
PS2--victory
PS3--fall

Of course, that´s not to say the cycle will be repeated a third time.

They could ride the wave of the wii's succese like Sony did from the ps1 to the ps2. The wii mote should be even better. Will they try to match Sony and mircosoft graphictly is the question. And if Sony or microsotf will go down the path of a wii mote like controller. All and all thier changes are great of winning next gen. But they have to remain innovative.

There is a line of thinking that goes Nintendo won the first 2 gens (excluding prior to NES) then Sony won 2 so it's a cycle of two ergo Nintendo wins next gen by default.

Personally I don't subscribe to that thinking, but it's simply too early to say. We'll have to see what they come out with. I don't expect next gen to push graphics any further really, so it'll all be about immersion and appealing to the widest possible audience.

Or how about we expand this into this hypothetical situation

NES - victory

SNES - victory

(guess the Virtual Boy is usually disregarded or we could just add that with the N64)

N64 - fall

GCN - fall

Wii - victory

Super Wii - victory

PS1 - victory

PS2 - victory

PS3 - fall

PS4 - fall

PS5 - victory

PS6 - victory

^ i would argue that in a decades time, or less, LG, Samsung and other korean companies will destroy Sony. Failing that, China is doing pretty well at making technology and if Sony stop making money on most of their other products videogaming will be the least of their troubles.