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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

GranTurismo on 07 September 2007
HappySqurriel said:
GranTurismo said:

HappySqurriel said:

...

 



I never suggested that games would be canceled for the PS3/XBox 360 and moved to the Wii, just that third party support was going to continue to shift towards the Wii ... Consider that between now and January 1st 2008 the number of third party games each platform will get is the following:

Wii: 105
PS2: 85
XBox 360: 67
PS3: 50

As each of those projects is completed the publisher will be forced to evaluate which platform they will be supporting with this development team in the future; the Wii will have outsold the XBox 360 and PS3 combined this year and will (most likely) take the lion's share of this support, the PS2 will have outsold both the XBox 360 and PS3 this year but will be expect to see lower sales next year so will see reduced support, and the XBox 360 and PS3 will likely see the remainder of the support put into cross platform development.

Certainly, the XBox 360 and PS3 will have several big games released next year but with less "Meat and Potatoes" games being released every month as well as high console prices will prevent these games from selling as well as some people would expect.


I agree that the wii will get the most third party support, its just a matter of what the third party support will be.  I like mostly western style game, with the 360 being the main platform for those types of games it would make little sense to skip the PS3 and just make a wii title.  Its just to hard to tell what will happen for the future of gaming right now, but i just can't see third parties having decent sales on the wii when Nintendo games will be what is bought first for the system.  

Lets say in 6months i buy a wii, i want 10 games for the system, I bet that Nintendo games are going to be atleast 50-70 percent of what i buy, this will be the same for just about anyone buying the system.  Third parties will see this and go oh shit lets make something for the PS3/360/PC. then we can chop the game down and make it for the wii to get some extra cash.

It would be best if all the systems, could get the same games.  One last hing before ben comes in and bans me for supporting the PS3, thats just a joke ben unless you do plan on banning me for supporting the PS3 ;)

This generation of gaming will be the tighest race so far and its just too early to predict what will happen.  we all have our ideas of what will happen, but nothing is set in stone, no one ever expected Nintendo do die off like they did for 10 years.  Then come back with a system called the wii and be ahead of the 360/PS3 in sales after 10 months or whatever it is.



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mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

@Soriku:
The 1st is always the best.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

I kno but you had a question mark.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

HappySqurriel on 07 September 2007
GranTurismo said:

HappySqurriel said:

...


I agree that the wii will get the most third party support, its just a matter of what the third party support will be.  I like mostly western style game, with the 360 being the main platform for those types of games it would make little sense to skip the PS3 and just make a wii title.  Its just to hard to tell what will happen for the future of gaming right now, but i just can't see third parties having decent sales on the wii when Nintendo games will be what is bought first for the system.  

Lets say in 6months i buy a wii, i want 10 games for the system, I bet that Nintendo games are going to be atleast 50-70 percent of what i buy, this will be the same for just about anyone buying the system.  Third parties will see this and go oh shit lets make something for the PS3/360/PC. then we can chop the game down and make it for the wii to get some extra cash.

It would be best if all the systems, could get the same games.  One last hing before ben comes in and bans me for supporting the PS3, thats just a joke ben unless you do plan on banning me for supporting the PS3 ;)

This generation of gaming will be the tighest race so far and its just too early to predict what will happen.  we all have our ideas of what will happen, but nothing is set in stone, no one ever expected Nintendo do die off like they did for 10 years.  Then come back with a system called the wii and be ahead of the 360/PS3 in sales after 10 months or whatever it is.


This is where I simply have to disagree ... The videogame market naturally moves towards a single platform dominating because of a feedback loop which rapidly gets out of control. The shift of third party support will translate to greater sales for the Wii which will (in turn) translate into stronger third party support; slow sales for the PS3 and XBox 360 will translate into weaker third party support which will (in turn) lead to lower sales.

It doesn't matter whether you are ready to accept it or not, in order for this generation to remain close in sales the XBox 360 and PS3 had to sell at a similar rate to the Wii from the day it was released; they didn't so without some drastic action from Sony and Microsoft the generation has been decided.



mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

@HappySqurriel:
But what if each area goes for a different system ie JPN:Wii NA:X360 EU:PS3 it could happen and looks likely too happen....maybe.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

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Final-Fan on 07 September 2007
mitsuhide said:
@HappySqurriel:
But what if each area goes for a different system ie JPN:Wii NA:X360 EU:PS3 it could happen and looks likely too happen....maybe.

 Correction:  JPN:1.Wii, 2.PS3 (big lead over 3), 3.360; NA: 1.Wii, 2.360 (big lead over 3), 3.PS3; EU: 1.Wii, 2.PS3, 3.360



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

I didnt say it was true i said what if?



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

Hus on 07 September 2007

Um thread title is predict.

not argue.



mitsuhide on 07 September 2007

I should hope its predictable its the 2nd time its been done.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

HappySqurriel on 07 September 2007
mitsuhide said:
@HappySqurriel:
But what if each area goes for a different system ie JPN:Wii NA:X360 EU:PS3 it could happen and looks likely too happen....maybe.

Except that isn't what is happening:

Japan 2007:
Wii: 2,583,137 (75%)
PS3: 691,026 (20%)
XBox 360: 152,232 (5%)

North America 2007:
Wii: 3,336,676 (52%)
XBox 360: 1,878,096 (29%)
PS3: 1,211,353 (19%)

Others 2007:
Wii: 2,365,682 (50%)
PS3: 1,380,024 (30%)
XBox 360: 966,788 (20%)

Basically, the Wii is selling better in every region and worldwide. On top of this the PS3's sales in the "Other" regions is misleading mainly because they launched in 2007, sold (roughly) 1 Million systems immediately, and then started selling at a snail's pace.