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Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

Christopher_G2 on 07 September 2007

Wii 40%: Winning every market, but it will only be by a significant margin in Japan

PS3 35%: Coming close to Wii in Europe, a close third in the US, and decent sales in Japan

360 25%: Might be a tight race between the it and the Wii in the US, but it's hard to see it not coming in third in Europe, and we all know how Japan goes





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The_vagabond7 on 07 September 2007

The PS3 fanboys ignore all logic and numbers, (160 million PS3s?, Xbox stop selling alltogether?) I guess you have to in order to believe in the PS3's unheard of comeback.



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scorptile on 07 September 2007

sony fanboys ignores all logic when it comes to predictions. mine is this

wii 60%
xbox360 30%
ps3 20%



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GranTurismo on 07 September 2007

All logic points to the failure of the wii, with very poor third party support for the system and its sports titles are just last gens ports unlike the 360/PS3 versions.



The_vagabond7 on 07 September 2007

ok, so question to ones like hus that have the PS3 destroying everything else, do you actually believe those numbers, and believe that the PS3 will descend from heaven like a vengeful jesus to destroy all who oppose it, or do you just say that to get a rise out of those that actually pay attention to the numbers, market, history, logic in general? Because honestly I don't see how such figures can be justified.



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ItsaMii on 07 September 2007

How about Wii does so well it gets 130% marketshare. 100% this generation (people exchange their consoles for Wiis in Gamestop) and 30% last generation (lets not forget that it is 2 GC duct taped togethrer).



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GranTurismo on 07 September 2007

For each wii sold we should increase the GC numbers by two and some chart to track the tape :D



HappySqurriel on 07 September 2007
GranTurismo said:
All logic points to the failure of the wii, with very poor third party support for the system and its sports titles are just last gens ports unlike the 360/PS3 versions.

Outselling the competition combined on a weekly basis and capturing the bulk of new third party development points to the failure of the Wii? By the end of March 2008 the Wii will have outsold the XBox 360 and PS3 combined on a worldwide basis; in the months that follow the Wii will become the dominant console in every market and soon pass combined sales of the XBox 360 and PS3 in every market.

The fact of the matter is that the majority of third party development is still being focused on the PS2 and most of that is going to shift towards the Wii over the next couple of years due to its impressive sales; in 2009/2010 (when people expect the PS3 and XBox 360 to 'Magically' comeback) the Wii will have more games being released that are exclusive to the Wii than the XBox 360 and PS3 have being released between either system. You will have systems which are selling for $100+ more than the Wii which have far fewer games being released and (more importantly) far fewer good games being released.

The sales ratios between these consoles are currently the best the PS3 and XBox 360 will ever see.



WiteoutKing on 07 September 2007

I'll go with...

Wii - 125m - (62.5%)
360 - 50m - (25%)
PS3 - 25m - (12.5%)



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

GranTurismo on 07 September 2007

Third parties are not supporting the system, if you call crappy ports of PS2 games, and even more crap games made to cash in on the system then LOL. Plus third parties are still keeping the big projects on the PS3/360/PC, and making crappy spin-offs for the wii.

"By the end of March 2008 the Wii will have outsold the XBox 360 and PS3 combined on a worldwide basis"

This made me laugh, do you think the other systems are not going to sell at all during Christmas time.

The PS3 still has not released any of its big games, this will start with Ratchet this christmas, followed by GT5 prologue, then have games like GTA, FF, GT, MGS and Killzone during 08. The wii only has games with Mario in the name, the only other game the wii has is MP3.