The PS3 has released plenty games that everyone declared "system savers" that haven't changed the market at all, GT. The Wii is gathering third-party support and the PS3 is losing exclusivity left and right.

WiteoutKing i can think of Assassains Creed,DMC4 and GTAIV(but this was never exclusive in the 1st place at best it was timed), thats 3 main/big titles yet i can think of games that the PS3 has gained LANoire,OtherR* IP,WardevilEnigma(once X360Exclusive),Disgaea3,StarOcean4,Haze(timed...i think),UT3(timed).

OnTopic:
PS3:45%
Wii:40%
X360:15%

Unless sales for ALL consoles dont move at all and stay pretty much around the same that they are now.
Wii:75%
PS3:12.5%
X360:12.5%

I do believe that the PS3 and XBox 360 will sell systems at Christmas and take a similar percentage of the total hardware sales as they have managed through out all of 2007; in that time the Wii has outsold the XBox 360 and PS3 combined by 2 Million units worldwide.

My prediction is not that unrealistic, in fact I believe that it would be unrealistic to expect the PS3 or XBox 360 to sell disproportionately more than they have this year because the PS3 does not have a single exclusive franchise being released this year that has a track record of breaking 3 Million sales worldwide and the XBox 360 has already been out for 2 years and only seen a minimal price reduction (meaning most of the people who want an XBox 360 for that price have probably bought it); at the same time this is the first major holday season for the Wii, and it has 2 games with a track record of selling more than 5 Million units being released in this holiday season.

The only reason I could see my prediction not comming true is if Nintendo is unable to supply enough Wii systems; even then I would expect it to happen within weeks of my March 31st 2008 deadline.

GranTurismo, just make your prediction and move on...if you don't like others predictions, why don't back up what you're saying with evidence?

Personally, I don't understand why some people say the Wii will fail. It is currently the number 1 current generation system, and it sells more than the PS3 or 360 every week. It's not fanboyism, it's just numbers.

It's only logical that the Wii will continue to sell as it is now. The PS3 will get some great games, as will the 360, and as will the Wii. So each system will get boosts from their AAA games, but we'll be in the same place as we are now, with the Wii selling the most, and perhaps the PS3 crossing the 360, but I can't see that happening either for at least a year.

My prediction on the market share and who will win the war:

360: 30%
PS3: 25%
Wii : 45%

This one really hasnt taken off as well as the last one...

About the price reduction of the system, i live in canada and the price of the 360 has dropped $100 since last year.  And the PS3 was sold out last christmas at $660, after christmas it went up to $700, right now i can buy a PS3 for $550.   The wii is still the same price at $280.  It would seem logical that the 360/PS3 will have a better christmas overall this year then last, the wii will see a better christmas due to more of them being available and games like brawl and galaxy.  But the wii will fail to live up to demand and run out of units, the 360/PS3 being the only other console on the market except for the PS2 will sell alot more then they would of if the wii never ran out.

The wii will sell the most units for the time being due to the cheap price and AAA games being out, while the PS3 will have to wait until the end of 08 to meet that same goal. 

During 08 the most popular game ever will be coming out, this game is GTA4 and you can't get it for the wii only the 360/PS3, this game will drive massive sales of the 360/PS3 during 08.

Regarding third parties, can you show me some examples of major games being canceled for the PS3 and going to the wii?

All major third party game will go to 360/PS3/PC, while spin-offs will go to the wii, all major sports titles and FPS games are still being made for the PS3 while the wii is forced to live off the last gen ports because EA won't develop games from scratch for the system when they can make more money on the 360/PS3/PC one. 

Here's an estimate from Capcom. I read an interview with a guy from Capcom today in Man!ac, a German video game magazine. I didn't buy the magazine, but I think it was Kenzo Tsujimoto and he was very candid about many questions.

His prediction:

US & Europe:
360 - 45 %
PS3+Wii share the rest

Japan:
Wii - 60 %
PS3 - 40 %
360 - dead

So there you have it. Capcom thinks that the 360 will win this generation, with Wii+PS3 close behind.

I will calculate a global percentage out of this (note: this is my calculation, not Capcom's words). If we assume that the western amrkets represent 80 % and Japan 20 % of unit sales, it would look like this:

360: 36 %
Wii: 34 %
PS3: 30 %

Im not going to argue this point again iwth the same people/topics. So...

Wii- 75 mil- 57%
PS3-25 mil- 19%
X360- 30 mil- 24%

I think my numbers might be off on the total sales but the percentages are probably right.

I never suggested that games would be canceled for the PS3/XBox 360 and moved to the Wii, just that third party support was going to continue to shift towards the Wii ... Consider that between now and January 1st 2008 the number of third party games each platform will get is the following:

Wii: 105
PS2: 85
XBox 360: 67
PS3: 50

As each of those projects is completed the publisher will be forced to evaluate which platform they will be supporting with this development team in the future; the Wii will have outsold the XBox 360 and PS3 combined this year and will (most likely) take the lion's share of this support, the PS2 will have outsold both the XBox 360 and PS3 this year but will be expect to see lower sales next year so will see reduced support, and the XBox 360 and PS3 will likely see the remainder of the support put into cross platform development.

Certainly, the XBox 360 and PS3 will have several big games released next year but with less "Meat and Potatoes" games being released every month as well as high console prices will prevent these games from selling as well as some people would expect.