I think everyone who is negative about SMG sales will be very surprised. 130k day one is not bad for a more casual game. People will get it on Saturday. I expect 4 day sales over 400k and Wii sales at least over 70.000.
Only real hardcore JRPG games tend to have lines and release craze (SquareEnix games, Monster Hunter etc.).

Let's not be fooling anyone, sales of under 500k for the first week would be much less than anyone expected. It will undoubtedly have absolutely insane legs, and definitely do well in the end, but just 300k would be a surprisingly slow opening week.

Calling this a sign of the Japanese market moving to non-gamers is jumping the gun just a bit, but it does show how their tastes differ from those of the Western market. It might be a sign of Japan moving from home consoles to hand helds, but even that would be reading into it too much. I'll wait and see after Galaxy, Mario Kart and Brawl are out, then pass judgment on Japanese gamers.

With a supposed 350-375k first day, that'd put it around 600k first week, *if* retailers did order 700k. Very good numbers.

Remember: NSMB sold 480k first day. Remember how that one wound up?

Ah yes, first week sales are generally twice the first day sales. That would definitely boost Galaxy into respectabe territory, seeing how NSMB did "only" 900k with five times the user base.

I'll just keep my mouth shut until we have the final numbers, and I suggest the rest of you do the same so we'll avoid any unnecessary mass hysteria. =P

Selling 350 k would meand it's sold to 1/10th of Wii owners in 4 days. That's not really bad, but I expect higher sales. over 500k would mean 1/6th of userbase in 4 days. That would be really good. Remember Mario is hardcore and casual as well. People will be waiting to give it as a New Year present or don't buy it launch date. Besides Wii games tend to have mediocre launches but good legs.

I expect 1 million by end of year.

For what I have been seeing here ,first day sales are usually 2/3 of the first week sales in Japan .But ,this wasnt the case with for example Mario Party that first day sales were 1/2 of first week sales .In any case we will know in a week .

@ Neos

you predicted 700-800k first week for this game (look on the first page of this thread) and now you are saying 130K is good for this game? Why such a contradiction? Is it because you cant except that a mario game underachieved?

Well we knew this would be bigger in America and Europe than Japan, but that's still disappointing. It shouldn't have any trouble selling a couple million in Japan with the kind of legs I'm expecting on the game, but that only leads to a 350K-400K first week, which is below my expectations (I predicted 550K).

tombi, the first week hasn't passed by yet.. i'm not saying anything about what it might or might not achieve given the first day sales, but lets wait until the numbers for the week are actually released so noone has to eat crow