I'm surprised there hasn't been a recent thread on this yet but...
Galaxy launches in Japan this November 1. That means Wii hardware sales will be 3.4 million (current) + 8 weeks (conservatively: a 50k average/week).
So when Galaxy launches in Japan, it will have at least a 3.8 million based to sell to. Game Cube lifetime sales are just over 4.0 million, but when Super Mario Sunshine launched (in July 2002), it sold 339,000 copies or so. That may not seem like alot, but it was 339k/1488k. In other words, Sunshine sold to 22.7% of the Gamecube owners in Japan in one week. Lifetime, the ratio stayed about the same - preventing Sunshine from selling 1.0 million copies in Japan.
Super Mario 64 - an N64 launch title - in June of 1996, sold 292k units - with a nearly 1:1 attach ratio to the N64 in Japan in 1996.
Eventually, Nintendo 64 sold about 5.3 million units in Japan, and Super Mario 64 ended up with nearly 2.0 million units sold - roughly a 40% attach rate lifetime.
If Galaxy reaches 20% of Wii owners in week one in Japan, it would sell 750,000+ units, and continue to sell strongly as the seasonal (winter) sales increases come into play. I think the game will sell quite strongly long term in Japan - but I don't think the debut will be super strong.
My week one prediction: It reaches 15% of Wii owners - 575,000 units sold in week one.
What do you think? I'll be ressurrecting this thread in November, so think it through!
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
