Super Mario Galaxy 250K
15K boost in HW
Sales boost for Wii sports and Wii Play and MP8

Redspear with all due respect even Super Mario Sunshine provided more than a 15k boost for GC (more like a 10 week 10k-20k/week boost).

Mario sunshine sold to roughly 20% of GC owners in week one. Given Wii's userbase and the success of NSMB and even Super Paper Mario, its reasonable to expect Mario Galaxy to have sales 15-20% of Wii's Japan base -500k-750k in week one. Nonethless, even a 250k week one would probably see a 25k+ boost for Wii.

I think it will get close to selling out - everywhere - at launch. So its going to come down completely to retailer preorders, and how "switched on" they are to the current consumer demand.

Has Ninty started any SMG advertising in the US? 

I thought you were talking about first day. If you are talking abou the week I expect 650K and a 45K boost in HW. The expectation is low but I would rather be mildly surprised than dissappointed by good numbers

USA Trailer. Complete with random shots of people playing the game in their living room, showing us all how much fun they’re having. I don't think it has aired anywhere yet though. I haven't seen anything about Galaxy on TV yet. But I bet there will be.

Wow, that really is an awesome trailer. If I saw that on TV - and had no idea what the game was, I think my head would explode.

I wish they would show some "larger" areas (such as the underwater area) though - then it would be perfect :) 

I think SMG will sell around 150k first day, and 350k first week....

There's no way Nintendo can ship that much software!

Is it just me or is the Super Mario Galaxy launch in Japan kinda meh. I mean it came out today and there is no news whatsoever on the internet. No pictures. No Stories. Notta. I have my doubts that Galaxy will break 500,000 in week 1 now. Has anyone heard anything?

I've seen a news saying that the retailers are disappointed with the Galaxy sales...