I'd say around 600-650k. Of course, with the holiday season approaching, this game may reach 1.5+ million by mid-January if it's received well enough.

For the U.S., venturing a wild guess, 800k first week.

Looking back at early data... (A.k.a Super mario 64 and Sunshine on N64 and Gamecube)...

Sunshine did ~20% of the userbase. Which was (Not good) 1/5 of 4 mil is 800k lifetime.

Considering Wii will be at ~3.8 mil (Around the same as Gamecube got to in lifetime) It will launch with 15-20% of the hardware sold. With this in mind sales could vary first week from 570-760k. With it possibly reaching 1 mil 2nd week if it ends up on the higher end of my first week prediction.

I expect Wii sales to be up BIG. Expect ~150k the week Super Mario Galaxy launches and even more then 200k if they bundle the game with Wii and put in something exclusive like A Red mario Wii holder (You know, the grey thing that keeps your wii in a 15% angle) or 3 Mario stickers to customise your Wii or something.

650K fist week in japan, and total WW 10,2 million

700 k retail orders was 2 weeks ago (begin oct) so by the time Galaxy arrives it should be around a million.

I think 1st week sales will be 800.000.

I think Wii sales will stay above 100.000 for the rest of the year after Galaxy launch. Probably a week or two over 300.000.

I expect numbers close to whatever Nintendo is shipping. Galaxy is *the* game of this year even moreso now that Brawl has been delayed. Wii Fit likely won't steal any sales from Mario, and I can't think of anything else people would rather pick. Weak sales of Wii could be an issue, but since it's likely the Wii will sell out this winter anyway, it's no big deal.

 that would mean they will be sold out again hehe, well it could be possible ofcourse, i expect more in the high 100-125k region regarding hardware.

i still think it will be very high so im sticking to 1mill.

Thinking about it and comparing it to NSMB, i think the wii market is still more 'core' than the DS, the DS gained alot of typically non mario buying customers with brain training, nintendogs and animal crossing. The Wii, especially in japan doesn't have the same market so i feel more of the Wii users are likely to pick up the latest Mario title.

I feel there is a much better feeling towards this title too, compared to the GC's Sunshine. SMSS was fighting a losing battle already, people wanted it months ago and even the movies, screenshots and hype were nothing like Galaxy. Its gonna go like sh*t off a shovel :)

I didn't own a GC when SMSS launched and the lackluster reviews didn't motivate me to get one either, if I didn't already own a Wii now, i would buy one now to guarantee i get to play SMG asap.

Without using any research, or common sense, I'm gonna say 1 million. The Wii's biggest competition are the DS and the PS2's installed base (completely talking out of my ass here). SMG is the biggest game for the hottest home console. It should do big numbers. Also, the Japanese are suckers for new and innovative gameplay. Looking at Galaxy's videos, I think originality is an understatement.

The only downside: Many people felt that the franchise changed when it went 3-D. New Super Mario was a success because it was a throwback to the good old days. Will Galaxy be too different? 100 posts! Woo Hoo! I'm finally a man! This calls for a drink....and some hookers....

675k

I believe the 700k was retailer pre-orders though. I don't know if they ever have actual customer pre-order announcements in Japan, like here in NA. I would like to think they'll ship more or the shops will order more, but you never know. That's why my caveat is: "Whatever they ship, they'll sell like 10-20k less." So, if they ship 1mil, they'll probably sell like 980k or so.