Dodece said:
I am trying to understand your point. Correct me if I am wrong are you saying that the consumer will intentionally put off the next gen purchase until they can afford a PS3 even if it is well out of their price range this holiday season? That is definitely a interesting perspective if true. In the United States we always seem to gravitate towards price, and technology long before we get around to brand consideration.Â
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This isn't for me to answer, but since I also made the argument, I'll try.
The Playstation brand proved it was possible to sell a crap load of units in the PAL region, which is unheard of for home consoles. Before the Playstations no other home console had broke 10 million for PAL, both Playstations sold more than 40 million units, almost as much as they sold in America, almost twice as much as they sold in Japan. The PS3 isn't doing so well, mostly because of price, but they did have a pretty good launch, and have been outselling the 360 ever since (as you noted). It's also, surprisingly, even outselling the Wii in some, albeit small, markets. The PSP is also doing pretty well, in bigger markets like Spain and Italy. Curiously, the PS2's recent success is tied to the causal efforts of SCEE, some of which are unknown outside of Europe (like Buzz).
You also have to look at the competition.
Nintendo never did very well with home consoles in PAL. The Mega Drive even managed to outsell the SNES around here. Portables though, are a different story. The GB sold very well, the GBA moderately well, and the DS is selling really well too. Can they transfer that success to home consoles for the first time though? It seems so, but unless they really do steal the thunder, and Europe ends up a one console market like Japan, the PS3 will end up selling well here (as in, almost as much as in the America) and use Europe with Japan to outsell the 360 globally. It's also interesting to note how the Wii is targeted at the same crowd SCEE as been successful with as of late.
Finally, Microsoft. Xbox was a good start, but not that great. The 360's hardware problems have been mentioned here. One thing to note is that in Europe, the special 3-year warranty simply won't impress, as by law the machine is required to come out of the box with a 2-year full warraty serviceable in 30 days. I still think it's doing OK overall, keeping up with its more expensive but more recognizable "friend".
One thing that affects all consoles should be noted, though: this all varies very much from country to country. The Wii is wining on all big markets, but while some of those prefer the 360, others choose the PS3. In some of those big markets, the PS3 already overcame the 360's lead this close after launch. Other markets (as I pointed above) have the PS3 outselling even the Wii. True that America includes Canada, but the differences within the PAL reagion are much bigger than even that.
Finally, answering your question, judging anecdotaly from shelf space, the PS3 might not outsell the Wii this holiday season - but the PS2 a fair chance to. I don't think these customers will ever buy a PS3 because of its price, but I have my doubts if they'll ever buy a Wii (or much less a 360) either.
