By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict the percent (%) of market share for the Wii, PS3, 360 by gen's end

Final-Fan on 04 September 2007

Sqrl: It's on page 7 of this very thread. The Hus quotes are on pages 1 and 6, but the page 1 prediction got changed to 45/40/15 (still PS3/Wii/360).



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

Around the Network
Sqrl on 04 September 2007

@Hus,

I have to ask if you think Nintendo is going to completely fail to meet its goal for this fiscal year? And I have to ask if you think that MS is going to experience huge sales drops over the next 2-3 years? The reason I ask is your 60/30/10 number is so far out there that it makes me wonder if you only intended to send a message that you think there will be a comeback for the PS3, and possibly didn't take the %'s very seriously.

Realistically speaking I can understand how you have rationalized a PS3 comeback (although as you know I strongly disagree). But what I cannot understand is how you have rationalized the sales slump the Wii and 360 will have to go through in order for the 60/30/10 prediction to have any chance of becoming a reality.

Honestly within three years it is nearly a certainty that the 360 will be at 25m+. At which point you are essentially predicting the Wii to sell 75m, and the PS3 to sell 150m. At this point you have to realize that in the current situation where the PS3 has the lowest install base and the lowest WW sales over the last 6 months, it is simply not currently in a good market position. This is why people find your prediction lacking in serious amounts of detail. You have to back it up with something more than "FF and GTA will move consoles". There has to be some sort of market based analysis to go with it if you want people to see your point.

Predicting a slim win for the PS3 is at least somewhat understandable. But a decisive win by double? Well I'll just say that its very unlikely.
To Each Man, Responsibility
scotland yard on 04 September 2007
Hus said:
scotland yard said:
Hus said:
Final-Fan said:
Hus said:
Soriku said:
Hus said:
Soriku said:
^ Opinion=/=Fact

Reality = fact.


WOW! You really phail at logic! Wow!

Rolf.

FF MGS GOW GT GTA, sure as hell are not on the wii.


Actually FF is going to be on the Wii in the form of Crystal Chronicles; and don't be too surprised if FF XIV is too.

Mario, Zelda, Metroid, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, etc. sure as hell are not on the PS3.

I'm not a PS3 basher but you force me to shoot down your insanity. It's as if you make kamikaze posts to try to destroy the evidence that your precious PlayStation isn't coming in first this time. Check my signature (the middle part).


FF14 on the wii lol, maybe FF14 on the next gen.

FF GT GTA MGS are the best and you know it so iam bragging about them, (thats pretty much your advice anit it ?) it takes quite the delusional person to deny the great sales and great reviews those games get.

But as we all know, lots of member on here does deny the selling power of GTA so its not to be unexpected.

 


No one's denying the great sales/reviews of those games, but for every one of those, Nintendo has a game that sells *more* on a platform with a larger userbase. Ignoring Mario, Smash Brothers, Zelda, Metroid, etc. which all are 10 million sellers versus the games you listed which are 5 million sellers. GTA and GT are exluded from that -- both were also 10 million sellers. However, that was on PS2, which had a 100 million console userbase. None of the current consoles have anything near that number, so it will be hard to predict how sales of these games might be affected.

And GTA will more than likely sell more copies on 360 than on PS3, so that's a strange comparison, anyway.

Either your all wrong or using a bs double standard.

Only one Nintendo game broke 10 mill in the last two console gens, NO Metroid or Zelda has ever sold 10 million. Over all franchise sales yes, if going by franchise sales you have to include MGS and FF.

GT3 did NOT launch with 100 million PS2s, neither did GTA3 some of you might wnat to learn to read a time line. Now what that means is launch date/user base at that time.

 

 


The cold hard facts:
Here are the sales numbers of the big exclusives for each console (I omitted Pokemon since I didn't originally mention it). Behind the software totals are the numbers of consoles at the launch of each game.

Big Name PS Exlusives:
The last Gran Turismo sold 8.79 million copies. [ 87.46 million consoles at launch ]
The last Final Fantasy sold 4.94 million copies. [ 117.89 million consoles at launch ]
The last Metal Gear sold 3.96 million copies. [ 103.69 million consoles at launch ]
The last God of War sold 1.82 million copies (current, still selling). [ 117.8 million consoles at launch ]

Big Name XBOX Exclusives:
The last Halo sold 8.27 million copies. [ 20.74 million consoles at launch ]
The last Gears of War sold 4.31 million copies (current, still selling). [ 10.94 million consoles at launch ]
The last Fable sold 2.6 million copies [ 17.34 million consoles at launch ]
The last Project Gotham Racing sold 1.02 million copies (current, still selling). [ 10.94 million consoles at launch ]

Big Name Nintendo Exclusives:
The last Mario Cart sold 6.6 million copies. [ 14.59 million consoles at launch ]
The last Smash Brothers sold 6.58 million copies. [ 3.80 million consoles at launch ]
The last Mario sold 5.91 million copies. [ 3.80 million consoles at launch ]
The last Zelda sold 4.96 million copies (current, still selling). [ 27.43 million consoles at launch ]

The difference here is that there are, literally, at least 10 incarnations of Mario games every Nintendo generation -- be it racing, puzzle, RPG, party, sports, etc. There is no Gran Turismo!RPG or Metal Gear!Sports. All of them sell at least a million -- usually more.

I don't own a Wii, nor do I plan to. It just doesn't have much appeal for me. But that doesn't mean I'm going to ignore reality, either. The attach rate of Nintendo games is higher than Xbox, and exceedingly higher than PS games. And now, in terms of console sales, they're whupping the 360 and the PS3. I don't see anything that tells me this is going to change -- GTA, FF, MGS, Halo, or otherwise.