| Final-Fan said: The PS3 shouldn't lose developers to the 360, for instance, because it is in fact selling better than the 360. It will probably lose developers to the Wii, though. |
Developers could really care less about weekly sales. It's all about installed base. The Wii and 360 have 6+ million more potential customers each to sell games to.
| Final-Fan said: OKAY. I THOUGHT I SPELLED THIS OUT PRETTY CLEARLY IN THE OP BUT APPARENTLY NOT. THE PS3 IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO THE PS2. IT IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO THE WII. IT IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO EXPECTATIONS. IT IS SELLING POORLY COMPARED TO SONY'S PREDICTIONS. COMPARED, COMPARED, COMPARED. NONE OF THAT MEANS THAT THE SALES ARE JUST PLAIN BAD. The PS3 shouldn't lose developers to the 360, for instance, because it is in fact selling better than the 360. It will probably lose developers to the Wii, though. |
This post, in a nutshell, is exactly where you're wrong.
No one expected the Wii to perform this well. It was dead last in the last generation and floundering around trying to get a foothold in the console business. When the Wii came out, it completely exceeded expectations. Even if it sold only half as well as it is now, it would be selling well as far as the industry is concerned.
The Xbox performed poorly last generation. This generation it is performing slightly better in all regions. This is a plus for the Xbox 360. It is not selling particularly well, but it isn't selling particularly poorly either.
The PlayStation 2 was, bar-none, the best-selling console ever. The PlayStation 3 should have been a proper next-step for Sony. It should have been able to live up to the PlayStation brand name that dominated the gaming world for the last decade.
But it didn't.
It's sold horribly, and even despite its recent better sales over the 360, it is still not living up to its brand name. This is why it is considered to sell badly. Because as far as the industry is concerned, the PlayStation 3 is not even remotely close to what it was supposed to be.
Comparisons are everything in this industry. You don't have to be the best to get attention. You just have to do better than you were supposed to.
PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)
If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.
Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007
Its getting ragged on because at this point in its lifetime its tracking below the gamecube. Im sorry theres just no calling the gamecubes terrible adoption rate "good" or "decent" it was bad. Bad bad bad. And the PS3 is currently below that.
I however give the PS3 a pass because I feel their library has more upcoming games than the GC did. However so far I have seen many titles for PS3 fall by the wayside and fail to kickstart any type of true meaningful momentum.
FishyJoe said:
Developers could really care less about weekly sales. It's all about installed base. The Wii and 360 have 6+ million more potential customers each to sell games to. |
Well, true they don't care about weekly sales. And, true, they care about installed base. But they also care about FUTURE install base. They want to know where sales will be a year or two from now, when the game they are going to make will actually hit shelves.
So they do, actually, care about sales, as an indicator of future install base. If the PS3 and 360 sales retain their proportions to one another, the PS3 will overtake the 360. And it will then have a larger install base. Which, as you say, developers care about.
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia. Thanks WordsofWisdom!
To put it another way, imagine if the next generation of iPod went from 80% market share to 30% market share. People would be screaming bloody murder.
| Lost tears of Kain said: @killzone.... have you not read how much of an increase it would take for the ps3 to overtake xbox in 08? let alone catch up to wii? your dreaming the impossible for the wii with whats currently going on, and the stakes are very high unless ps3 gets a huge boost in sales from games. |
Whats so hard about catching up to "overall" sales of the 360 ? 360 has one maket and its not #1 there, sorry but thats not enough.
Come xmas PS3 iwill gain back 1 million in Japan alone, possible another one million in Europe as its quite clear half the nations there don't care about the 360 and even in its strong markets like UK 360 is still not outselling the PS3.
Final-Fan said:
So they do, actually, care about sales, as an indicator of future install base. If the PS3 and 360 sales retain their proportions to one another, the PS3 will overtake the 360. And it will then have a larger install base. Which, as you say, developers care about. |
If they retain their current (let's say, last three months) proportions to each other, the PS3 would be lucky to pass the 360 in four years, let alone ever. Four years is WAY too long for developers to sit on their thumbs waiting.
PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)
If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.
Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007
WiteoutKing said:
This post, in a nutshell, is exactly where you're wrong. No one expected the Wii to perform this well. It was dead last in the last generation and floundering around trying to get a foothold in the console business. When the Wii came out, it completely exceeded expectations. Even if it sold only half as well as it is now, it would be selling well as far as the industry is concerned. The Xbox performed poorly last generation. This generation it is performing slightly better in all regions. This is a plus for the Xbox 360. It is not selling particularly well, but it isn't selling particularly poorly either. The PlayStation 2 was, bar-none, the best-selling console ever. The PlayStation 3 should have been a proper next-step for Sony. It should have been able to live up to the PlayStation brand name that dominated the gaming world for the last decade. But it didn't. It's sold horribly, and even despite its recent better sales over the 360, it is still not living up to its brand name. This is why it is considered to sell badly. Because as far as the industry is concerned, the PlayStation 3 is not even remotely close to what it was supposed to be. Comparisons are everything in this industry. You don't have to be the best to get attention. You just have to do better than you were supposed to. |
The PS3 is not doing nearly as well as people thought it would. The industry as a whold is less confident in Sony than it was a year ago.
However, The PS3 is not the giant albatross around Sony's neck that it was viewed to be six months ago. If it has not lived up to its predecessors' name, neither has its failure been nearly as dismal as that of the Saturn (to which it bears many similarities).
The PS3 has been a failure compared to the PS2. That does not make it a FAILURE.
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia. Thanks WordsofWisdom!
Final-Fan said:
However, The PS3 is not the giant albatross around Sony's neck that it was viewed to be six months ago. If it has not lived up to its predecessors' name, neither has its failure been nearly as dismal as that of the Saturn (to which it bears many similarities). The PS3 has been a failure compared to the PS2. That does not make it a FAILURE. |
Once the PS3 makes all it's money back... I will agree!
Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.
You cannot define what is and is not a failure in the eyes of the industry. Just as I cannot.
But I can guarantee you that the PS3 is in no way viewed as a success, or even a mediocre console. Right now it is floundering and quickly losing support.
PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)
If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.
Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007
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