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Final-Fan said:
FishyJoe said:
Final-Fan said:

The PS3 shouldn't lose developers to the 360, for instance, because it is in fact selling better than the 360. It will probably lose developers to the Wii, though.

Developers could really care less about weekly sales. It's all about installed base. The Wii and 360 have 6+ million more potential customers each to sell games to.


Well, true they don't care about weekly sales. And, true, they care about installed base. But they also care about FUTURE install base. They want to know where sales will be a year or two from now, when the game they are going to make will actually hit shelves.

So they do, actually, care about sales, as an indicator of future install base. If the PS3 and 360 sales retain their proportions to one another, the PS3 will overtake the 360. And it will then have a larger install base. Which, as you say, developers care about.


 If they retain their current (let's say, last three months) proportions to each other, the PS3 would be lucky to pass the 360 in four years, let alone ever.  Four years is WAY too long for developers to sit on their thumbs waiting.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007