Chances are, the Wii isn't going to be the only console next gen with new innovations, such as IR, which is incedently not a new innovation(didn't menacer for the Sega Genesis use IR?), but you know what I mean. Microsoft and Sony  aren't stupid; they know they need to get the sales of all the soccer moms and grandparents out there to be top dog again, and they are going to do what needs to be done to appeal to them. Nintendo has never been too big on Western stylized shooters, and I think they may turn their attention that way next gen too. Or Ninty may completely stop hardcore games altogether, which may end up making them the most money.

That said, this is also the reason I like Microsoft's strategy so much; all their best and highest selling games are hardcore, so chances are that they will stay true to the hardcore, as that nets them all the money they've receieved so far, but also keep up with the times and appeal to Granny Smith with different games about parental cooking and whatnot. 

When will there be the Next Xbox anyway?

i think they will just be happy if they beat Sony every generation and not necessarily be #1.

@ My brother from another mother, JL

You know me - I read your post and I agree with you the Xbox was not as success, but an in-road. However, I do think the Wii2 will NOT be as successful as the Wii. Why? I do think the hardcore aud is a permanent fixture for consoles. The Wii crowd is somewhat fluid and may or may not buy a Wii2. Folks are flocking to buy Wiis because they are different and a new way to game (even though old-skool gamers remember the Ninny glove from back in the day). The folks who bought the Wii may or may not buy the Wii2.

I have been begging and begging for this. Someone needs to do a detailed breakdown of the demographic of folks buying the Wii. I don't think lightning strikes twice, and I do think the nongamers who bought a Wii are letting them catch dust after the fun wears off.

I only say that because I see a nongamer, every day, who talks about how she loves the Wii but hasn't fired it up in nearly a year. Just sayin'.

Microsoft knew the original Xbox was going to lose a lot of money. However, that is the cost of getting into the game industry. There are only a few companies that are capable of doing what Microsoft did. They wanted to get in it for the long run and didn't expect to make a profit at first. In fact, the press release announcing the xbox didn't even mention any profit incentives, they just wanted to have a box under your TV.

@JL & Others:

The personal computer market is failing its users. There are millions of people who quite frankly don't know what the hell they are doing and for them their computing experience is like dealing with an insolent and aggressive guard dog, always one part scary and confusing alongside anything else they wish to do. The computing experience for the majority of users is designed around the "Sit down, shut up, and do your work" mentality of the corporate user from which the personal computer was spawned. Its a closed off, stationary and sitting experience which doesn't fully meet the desires and expectations of the millions of people being drawn into the world of computing by necessity or requirement.

The next Xbox console is an opportunity for Microsoft. A majority of the market wants a simple Terrier whereas instead they get a German Sherpherd which is far beyond their most basic needs. Internet, communication and media are the key features of the rapidly expanding computing market. They have an opportunity to unencumber their consumers and free computing from a closed off mentality to be shared and accessible to many more people. Computing has to become something that anyone can do, and it must be able to be accomplished at a distance rather than requiring people to give their computer their undivided attention.

The computer itself occupies a central position in the lives of many people and yet it is cast off to the periphery of the house. The central position of the house is where people gather, and that is the living room and kitchen in most houses. This is where the new interface developments of consoles are important. If you take a Wii mote or a gesture/speech driven interface, finally people can interface with computer systems from a distance without being required to sit down and perch a keyboard awkwardly on their lap.  A console phillosophy of simplicity and the consoles place in the living room are both perfect for a new way of computing.  

In the end, if people want simple and reliable they don't have any options currently in computing. They have no organic or simple user interface and perhaps the time has come for the keyboard/mouse combo to be kicked to the curb. Not completely, just as the be-all solution for computing. The times they are a-changing, and its already happening. Mobile computers are outselling the stationary desktop kind and people are already bringing the computer into the central core of their homes. The console becomes instead a server in this new way of computing, sharing computing power and acting like a hub for a 21st century style computing experience. The sun is shining but not all the curtains are open, and this is the opportunity and threat Microsoft joined the console market for. Can they open the curtains?

Hopefully Nintendo keeps doing as well as they do, and Sony gets their shit together with the PS4. In the end, I hope to see Microsoft knocked out of here, the sooner the better. Microsoft dominating this industry will make it as bad as them dominating the OS industry. Everyone will have to deal with their half-assed products. MS being first is always a possibility, but hell, I don't want it.

Hey brother from mother another!

I feel what you're saying about Wii2, too. Nintendo's greatest success this gen could leave them like Jaleel White and Leonard Nimoy next gen. Typecast and unable to claim other roles. People love them so much in their current state that they may not accept them when it's time for the inevitable change. Like how some people give that Schroeder guy all that grief when he went from Ricky to Rick. That's Nintendo's biggest challenge for the future. How will they get people to accept things other than the Wii & DS? Fortunately they have a good bit of time before they have to worry about that.

But there is also the inevitable last gen champ advantage that carries over some audience from last console. Some NES people went over to SNES. The problem now is that tech advances of that type have lost their luster. This is why 8th gen to me right now is absolutely cloudy. I have no idea what specific form it will take other than it will be something we haven't seen before. What advance will make the older platform obsolete to transfer to a new system. Something tells me that somehow though Nintendo will have something up their sleeve.

Economy, lack of free time, & stress are part of the reason some people don't turn on their systems. Sometimes I can go a week without playing. Then again some people just have it for the status which could explain your friend.

John Lucas

Simplicity but at what cost. I like my Ipod classic. it has a simple design. Its clean and pretty.. it doesnt do a lot of things. it doesnt play FM, doesnt have shortcut keys/buttons, has a tinny screen. Do I love it. yes.

The key to the next gen..IMO is design.Most consumers dont care whats under the hood. Look at the wii. Its a success coz its pretty, compact and easy to use. The 360 is bulky, noisy, hot. The PS3 resembles a foreman grill. Simple clean compact designing is one of the key steps to success in the next gen. I dont know why companies keep getting it wrong. Designs like DC,Wii are gr8.. horrible ones like xbox, PS2, GC. A prettier simpler console means more people will wanna own it. A complicated beast will simply scare even the most eager user away.

Is it really? Depends on how you set up your business plan. Do you really think Nolan Bushnell started Atari for their system to fail financially just to get a foot in the door? Do you really think Nintendo's intention when entering the crashed North American market was to fail financially with the NES just to see how things would go for the next generation? Do you really think Sony's intention was to fail financially on the original PlayStation just to make the follow up PlayStation 2 a success?

I don't believe that & I don't think you do either. If Microsoft made the original XBox knowing it wasn't going to be a success then something is wrong with their business acumen which leads me to think that without their monopoly in the computer market they really couldn't be successful in any market. Which also leads me to think that they'll make similar bonehead moves for the next generation. Microsoft has the luxury of seemingly (but not actual) endless money to outlast a competitor but with this coming depression, the failure of Vista, & those recent layoffs of theirs I don't think they'll play around with funds so freely so much in the future. If they ever get disrupted in the computer world, their entire company could collapse.

Yes, their plan to get the XBox name embedded in buyer's minds worked which is why the 360 is more successful than the old XBox but the XBox 360 still is not as successful as it should be seeing what Microsoft put into it (the double dealing MS did to Sony with Cell really messed Sony up). They didn't really understand the business thinking Sony to be the boss & overlooking Nintendo as a minor nuisance not recognizing the origins of the PlayStation & that Nintendo's mistakes/Sony's capitalization on those mistakes created the Sony gaming empire which is now crumbling (as it always inevitably would). In order to get to the long run you need something in the short run. If you don't expect to make a profit, then what are you in business for? The Richie Rich way of doing business costs in the long run. They're not efficient & Nintendo's streamlined efficiency will make them pay in the long run. It's like asking Paris Hilton to be responsible with money compared to a thrift queen who cuts open the toothpaste tube to get more toothpaste.

And that's exactly the problem. They don't think they need to be in the handheld business! Hahahahaha! You ain't gonna get anywhere in Japan without handhelds & without Japan you can't rule the gaming world. The nature of the environment and culture of the people leans toward on-the-go portable lifestyle. That's why they love their cell phones so much. That's why they love iPods over there. That's why DSi has combined features of cell phones & iPods. That's why DS looks like the #1 compared to Wii. That's why PSP sells best there as a handheld alternative to DS. Their living spaces are smaller & Microsoft's console design is too bulky. That's one of many reasons why XBoxes don't do well over there. Also that dual market setup which Nintendo created & mastered makes a one hand washes other effect which benefit both platforms. Sony, best challenger to Nintendo's handheld empire yet, still hasn't quite grasped the concept.

You go where the people go. And let me tell you that ain't too far away from the U.S. or the rest of the world either. People live on cell phones & some don't even talk preferring to text everywhere. Nokia's N-Gage tried to get in on this phenomenon but didn't quite catch on. Apple, Microsoft's old rival, is looming. They are hanging around the game business playing with those iPod Touch applications. That's Nintendo's most visible threat right now, Apple. Microsoft sleeps on that fight & they'll end up like Sony in the gaming business losing that whole fight for the living room box in the process.

No, I'm just highlighting who the competitors are. In fact, the structure of a company telltales its decision processes. This is why Sony, a vertical company who wants to produce on all parts of a line, bloated the PS3 with Cell & Blu-ray making such a overgrown price. Sony in the music business wants to make the physical media, own the radio stations, have the artists contracted, own the publishing rights, own the studios the artists sing in, own the video tech that the music videos are made with, own the players that play the physical media, and even own the batteries to play the players with! Their business DNA is a lot of the reason why they've had so much failure over the years.

Microsoft not with a clear gaming division is similarly unfocused on the needs of the gaming audience. And without gaming being their bread & butter they are content to toy around in the business to do something like a 3 generation plan for dominance on a goal unrelated to videogaming. This is why they spent so much for Rare with so little return. This is why they destroyed Ensemble Studios after completion of a single XBox identified game despite the company being successful. This is why they swim upstream in Japan not understanding the needs of that market. This is why they seem to be learning on the go instead of having a clear cut game plan. XBox to Microsoft is just a mere game itself to play Corporate Command & Conquer taking over market territories.

Nintendo's original business as a playing card maker has been supplanted by their videogaming endeavors & as such they put their all into it because their survival depends upon it. This is why they are most in tune with what needs to be in gaming & what should be. A relatively small company besting corporate giants solely on videogame products making money hand over fist comes from their focused company structure.

Nintendo entered the U.S.A. on the homefront in 1985 & had it locked in 2. I trust Donkey Kong over that 500 pound American gorilla. In fact Microsoft's ignoring of that 800 pound barrel-throwing gorilla in the room will cost them plenty. Nice to be equal to the PlayStation brand in the eyes of the consumer, nicer to be equal to the Wii brand in the eyes of the consumer. And the PlayStation is a dying brand, never forget.

You have just exampled Microsoft's approach & thinking toward the industry. They think Sony was the threat. Sony was never the real champ. They sold the most systems of all time with the PS1 & PS2 and STILL did not profit in a way that reflected those unprecedented achievements. In their best times, they made a little money. They were never going to last. The PS3 has wiped out the PS2's success & is working on the PS1's. The only reason the PlayStation exists is because of Nintendo in both the positive sense & the negative sense. Nintendo's mistakes in the negative & Nintendo creating the idea for the platform in the positive. The PSP vs. DS fight exampled who truly ran this business.

You need to look at that YouTube video about Japanese VG marketshare (1996-2007) again. When people were saying Nintendo was about to pull a Sega in the face of the superior PlayStations a few years back, Nintendo hardly went below 40% of the Japanese market. You don't go out of business with 40% marketshare.

When Sony finally fades, Japan is all Nintendo without challenge. And even though XBox 360 had a couple of nice looks in Japan recently they are not a serious competitor. They will have to recognize Nintendo as formidable & you will see that this year. You're not supposed to take that long to make your mark. All is destined before the generation starts. The plans must be good before the beginning or you will not succeed.

Wow. Nobody has learned anything from the PSP. What we're seeing with Wii actually had already been done by them decades before in Japan with the Famicom. Wii was the second coming so to speak of the Famicom in just about every meaning you want to apply to it. Yes, Wii has an internet browser but does that browser stop people from using the ones on their desktops & laptops? No.

DS has already taught you this lesson. PSP already has a lot of that & it's failing as a platform in comparison. Nobody makes a lot of games for it & everybody uses it for everything else who does buy it. It's the bootleg system of choice. How many times will people understand that all-in-one media consolidation won't work. For design reasons and even location reasons people want certain things separate. Why do toasters, stoves & crockpots still sell when microwaves exist? Why are TVs still selling when monitors can provide a good picture? Why haven't cell phone cameras done away with digital cameras yet? Feature bloat can be a problem when you pack too much stuff into one device.

No, actually consoles ARE gaming devices & those who forget that lesson will be punished in the marketplace. For all that Microsoft does with XBox 360 they can't whoop the Wii. Can't even smell it. And Wii hasn't even really shown you yet what plans it has for the business. 2009 will be a rude awakening for Microsoft, I swear it. Yes, you can put in some nice bells & whistles but never forget the primary purpose of what your product is for. If anything, Nintendo's competition has paid for it in the long run by NOT remembering that crucial lesson. The 7th Gen is teaching you. Nintendo ultimately leaves the others in the dust.

Dreamcast had a web browser. Still didn't save Dreamcast's bacon. There's nothing wrong with using a console for outside of gaming purposes but when the primary focus is not on playing games then you have defeated the purpose of your machine. Ah, Bill Gates' dreams of convergence. Not happ'nin' Cap'n. You need to read some Sean Malstrom. Listen to what you said: "People will adapt." Unh-unh. WRONG approach. You can't force the public to do what it doesn't want to do. You look at what they need and what they're already doing & then act. That doesn't necessarily mean ask them what they want & give it to them but actually check their habits & fulfill a need not fully recognized.

Buying movies on consoles is not replacing other services. It's a neat bell & whistle but it's not undoing other avenues to buy movies. Don't get lost in the tech, man. If you get too jazzed by the tech you will miss the forest for the trees. This is what has happened to Sony & what's happening to Microsoft. There are alarm clocks in every device you can think of (including my DS) but you know what? I'm still using that same old GE alarm clock/radio I had since 1982 to wake up.

It's a lesson in life. You can't be all things to all people. This is the problem of convergence. Some things simply need to be kept separated just for the accessibility factor. Only if the things are complementary should they be converged. But you & Microsoft will learn this lesson soon enough.

You seem to think Microsoft is the steward of this business but they're just a swabbie. Nintendo's manning the wheel of this ship & has done so for about 25 years. Don't take them lightly. So many have learned the hard way.

John Lucas